Reese Kaplan -- Can Callaway Unleash the Inner Ace?

While Mickey Callaway comes to the Mets with a reputation for being something of a magician who can transform pitchers into strike throwing machines, the Mets’ collective problem is more about health than ability.  Many feel that if by some miracle you got full seasons out of the Fabulous Five then all will be right with the world.  No one questions the innate abilities of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steve Matz or Zack Wheeler. 

However, there are pitchers who remained mostly healthy that could benefit from harnessing their abilities like Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.  Small samples in 2016 demonstrated what they both are capable of doing when they’re on their game.  The trick is figuring out how to channel their natural abilities and to deliver it on a regular basis.

Perhaps the make or break challenge for the new manager is the enigmatic Rafael Montero.  Currently out of options, this coming Spring is make or break for the once hot prospect.  Throughout his minor league career Montero demonstrated excellent control, carrying a 3.23:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a highly respectable WHIP of 1.178.  His minor league record is 12 games over .500 at 43 and 31 with a 3.26 ERA (which includes a lot of time in pitching hell in Las Vegas).  In rookie ball he pitched to an eye-popping 2.25 ERA, he improved in A+ to 2.11 and then continued his strong work in AA at 2.33.  At each of these levels he walked around 2 batters per 9 IP and struck out around 9. 

Then came Vegas.  Everyone who has watched the Mets over the past several seasons knows that not only do you take hitting stats with a grain (or entire silo) of salt when they originate in Las Vegas, the flip side is that pitchers generally are not as bad as they look while they’re there baking in the 110 degree sun.  Many shake it off when they get to the majors as evidenced by the fine 2016 debuts of the aforementioned Lugo and Gsellman.  Such was not the case with Rafael Montero.

Whatever it was that came naturally to him as he soared up the system went out the window when he got to Las Vegas.  His time there resulted in a 16-16 record and a 4.38 ERA.  Now given the grossly inflated hitting stats in Sin City, a 4.38 ERA is actually not that bad.  Things got so bad in Queens that a 4.38 would earn you number two starter status this past year. 

However, when you dive more deeply into the numbers you see some very disturbing things.  The WHIP jumped to 1.412.  The walks jumped from 2 to 3.5.  The Ks dropped.  He gave up more than a hit per IP.  There was an extended DL stint one year for a mystery ailment that was perceived by many as being “all in his head” but he’s otherwise been pretty durable, never having gone under the knife. 

So what is it that keeps Montero from succeeding?  One would think there may be some merit to it being more mental than physical.  If you have control, you should always have it (Steve Blass notwithstanding).  If you throw strikes and don’t issue walks, then the probability of success is pretty high.

However, whenever Montero has pitched in the majors, walks were always his Achille’s heel.  The strikeouts were still there at a respectable 8.8 per 9 IP, but he’s walked an alarming 5.2 over the same period.  Obviously that’s a recipe for disaster and the results have borne that out.  In the majors he’s 6-16 with a 5.38 ERA over parts of 4 seasons. 

What’s truly puzzling is the fact he’s turned in some games in which he looks like the phenom of the lower minors.  On May 25^th of 2014 he lost a 2-1 game to the Diamondbacks in which he struck out ten, gave up just two hits and walked 3 in 6 IP.  In late August against Cincinnati he pitched into the 9^th inning, with 8 Ks, no runs and just 3 hits allowed, but still offered up 4 walks.  

Now if Mickey Callaway is what his record suggests he is, can he get the strike-throwing Montero back again or is he simply too far gone to salvage?