The Mets
have over many years not drafted enough power pitchers and power hitters in the
earlier (say, first 10) rounds of the annual draft.
I think the
Mets drafted reasonably well that season, but some bizarre and serious injuries
made it work out not so well long term.
Let me start
first with 2008's Top 10 Round DUDS (whom I define as "what were they
thinking" picks), followed by the good DUDES (or those destined to be good
until injured) and maybe some useful observations can be made and conclusions
drawn.
DUDS
JAVIER
RODRIGUEZ, OF, 2ND ROUND, # 68 OVERALL: never even
made it out of rookie ball (well, not true, he did get under 100 at bats in
Savannah), and he was the 68th overall pick - now THAT is a dud!
Actually, his hitting, while not earthshaking, would have made him one of
this year's best rookie ball hitters. JR got up 769 times, fanned too
much (171 times), and hit .248/.315/.388.
He produced
50 doubles and 15 homers, not bad, but still clearly underperformed for a #68
overall pick. He was listed at 6'2", 165, kind of skinny, yet was
not a speedster, with just 8 of 14 steals. Poor pick at that level.
CHARLES Z.
ZOYLE, C, 5TH ROUND, # 164: apparently never played
pro baseball - and was drafted in the 5th round - DUD!
MICHAEL
HEBERT, P, 7TH ROUND, # 180 - he was distinctly
mediocre, got to Savannah briefly, but threw just 166 innings over 4
seasons. 12-14, 3.85, 1.40 WHIP, 146 Ks. Not terrible, but not
making it at least to St Lucie from the 7th round renders you a DUD pick.
BRIAN
VALENZUELA, P, 10TH ROUND: a DUD pick, the lefty was
listed at just 5'10, 155, and went 2-10, 6.09 in 68 rookie ball innings.
Advice:
avoid soft tossing midgets until at least the 30th round. Having the last
name Valenzuela does not make you Fernando.
DUDES
Several real
dudes in the top 10, but the unfolding was akin to a Shakespeare tragedy.
Macbeth agrees with me.
IKE DAVIS,
1B, 1ST ROUND, # 18 OVERALL: Ike was a good selection,
but a sad tale indeed. It took the power hitter something like 300 plate
appearances to record his first minor league homer, and to me smelled like a
possible bust. In his first full minor league season, he was very
impressive, and after a very short stint in AAA in 2010, up he came.
Ike had a
highly impressive rookie season with the Mets in 2010, and got off to a
scorching start in 2011, seemingly the Mets' next star until the oft-injured
David Wright stepped on his foot on a play by the mound, after which Ike was
improperly treated medically. 36 games was it for Ike in 2011. In
2012, Ike got off to an excruciatingly prolonged bad start, but then hit homers
in huge bunches in the season's 2nd half, and it looked like our star 1B was
back.
He wasn't
back - he mimicked his horrendous 2012 start in 2013, and eventually got
demoted. The Duda vs. Ike debate erupted in earnest that spring,
eventually Ike got traded, and he hit marginally and ended up in the minors,
and appears he may try his hand at pitching now. A baffling one, but
certainly a good pick. Always leaving one to wonder: what if David Wright
HADN'T stepped on Ike's foot (ankle)?
REESE
HAVENS, IF, 1ST ROUND, # 22 OVERALL: should
really be in the DUD column, but it was a serious injury that did him in.
After his Brooklyn debut in 2008, he hit well in A ball in 2009, with
pop. Hopes were rising.
In 2010, he
got off hot: .312/.386/.592 in 32 games, mostly in AA - sure looked like a fine
pick to that point, with people wondering how long it would take for him
to join David Wright as a star in the Mets IF - then the doggone Mets Jinx hit
him, too...he suddenly had bad rib cage issues, eventually needing
rib-shortening surgery, playing only 193 games from May 2010 until his career
ended in 2013 - sounds eerily reminiscent of David Wright. If no injury,
he looked like Ike did - a fine pick. Injuries suck.
BRAD HOLT,
P, COMP PICK, # 33 OVERALL: Another Mets Jinx
dude.
An excellent
pick, he dominated big time in Brooklyn in his debut season. The Mets
jumped him to St Lucie in 2009; he got shelled in his first game, but in his
next 9 outings, he was outstanding: 46 IP, just 8 earned runs and 29 hits, and
52 Ks...fans began to drool - then of course big time arm problems hit him and
he was just never anywhere near the same again, with his career ending in 2012.
Another sad teaser tale for hungry Mets fans.
KIRK
NIEUWENHUIS, OF, 3RD ROUND, # 100:
Captain Kirk conceptually was another fine Mets pick who never quite
panned out due to his inability to curtail his strikeouts. Good size,
strong, good speed...hole in bat. Worst Mets player to ever hit 3 homers
in a game. Mets tried to draft power and speed, it almost worked out, but
those strikeouts could never be reduced.
SEAN
RATLIFF, OF, 4TH ROUND, # 134:
Another Mets Jinx victim!!! A promising career cut short when he
got nailed in the eye while in the on deck circle. He also
fanned a bit too much, but in 2010, he played great in A and AA, hitting
.298/.353/.505 in 130 games. He later briefly tried a comeback, but was
unable to proceed.
Early on, with Davis, Havens, Holt, Kirk
and Ratliff all looking so promising, this in many Mets fans' eyes had to
be sizing up to be one of their best drafts ever - then gosh, the injuries were
stunning and career-changing. Injury-wise, Davis,
Havens, Holt, and Ratliff remind me of the Mets' injury-ravaged 2017 season.
JOSH SATIN
ROUND 6, ERIC CAMPBELL IN ROUND 9: Certainly
not duds, but I would have tried to draft guys with more power. Neither
had speed nor power.
ERIC
BEAULAC, P, 9TH ROUND: Eric was in fact the
type of guy I like to see drafted, a hard thrower who compiled 52 starts and 65
relief appearances over 6 seasons and was 21-21, 3.40 with a K per inning,
including a few outings in AAA.
His control
issues appear to have been his undoing, averaging almost 5 walks per 9 IP.
He also did not pitch a lot those last 3 years, indicative of probable
health issues. Nice try here by the Mets. Didn't pan out.
Below the
top 10, only Colin McHugh turned out to be any good. Rounds
11-50 were filled with a bunch of no-names, with my favorite being Forrest
Gump's brother Brian Gump in the 46th round. That's all I have
to say about that, and about 2008's Mets draft, for that matter.
Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2009
In this article series I am been looking at draft DUDS (guys who you
have to wonder "whatever were the Mets thinking" when they drafted
them) and draft DUDES (guys who either made it in style to the big leagues or
were fine picks waylaid by injuries).
I recently did an article about how the heck the Mets could have passed
on drafting Paul Goldschmidt in 2009, in which I touched on some of
the Mets Top 10 rounds' draft picks.
Here's an expand recap of what I wrote then.
If you just ate, reading this may get you nauseous, so proceed with
caution:
1st round - lost the pick - happens. Coulda been Mike Trout. Naturally,
we did not have that pick.
2nd round
- Steve Matz - good pick; sure he's had injuries, but you
can't assume injuries, so you pick him again. DUDE.
3rd round -
IF Robbie Shields: low power mediocrity. DUD. Complete
Dud. What were they thinking? .243/.315/.351 in his minor league career
in nearly 400 games (none above A ball) is not 3rd round stuff, and lacks the
power one has to expect from a 3rd round hitter with only decent speed.
4th round
- Darrell Ceciliani - a decent enough 4th round pick - if
Goldschmidt was not available. Which he was, which makes this pick not so
decent. DC has fine speed, negated by a persistently bad hammy or two,
and decent power, but only .190 in 100 major league at bats with 39 Ks - not a
DUD, but also not really a DUDE.
5th round -
P Damien Magnifico - did not sign with the Mets: his post-Mets
career in MLB is under 4 IP - not a hard thrower. Not a DUD, not a DUDE
if they signed him, but you fail to sign the guy??? That is a DUD result,
bro'.
6th round -
P David Buchanan - did not sign with the Mets - signed with
Phils instead in 2010; 8-17, 5.01 in the majors, and not a power K-type
pitcher. Not a DUD, not a DUDE if they signed him, but you fail to
sign the guy? That is a DUD result, bro'. (Didn't I just say that?)
7th round
- Darin Gorski, the far-too-soft tossing lefty to ever
realistically have a shot to make the majors. DUD....draft power arms
now, smile at the DUDE you picked later.
ROUNDS 8 THRU 10?
C JEFF GLENN (made it to AAA, .218 hitter);
OF NICK
SANTOMAURO (only .191 above rookie
ball); and
C TAYLOR
FREEMAN (.207 in rookie ball).
I dunno
about you - those 3 were super DUDS.
Bad
drafting in the first 10 rounds, in my humble opinion.
Below the Top 10 draft rounds? Absolutely nothing.
Bad work
there - usually someone will make it from those rounds, even marginally.
Overall
draft score? D, and that is only
because we got Matz.
Question of
the day: will the Mets never learn? Draft power arms and bats, then sit
back and smile.
This was a
very, very bad draft. No other way to put it.
Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2010
As we all
intuitively know, there is a moderately strong correlation between the chances
of big league success that a drafted player will have in terms of a major
league career, and what round he is drafted in. The higher the round,
generally the better the chances.
I have in
recent months broached an approach that which I think is obvious...try to draft
power bats and then power pitchers. Of course, power bats are only
attractive if the hitters' contact rates are not unacceptable.
Who were the
DUDS in rounds 1 through 10 in 2010? Why did they fail?
2nd round
catcher BLAKE FORSYTHE - the man had some power
but fanned way too much. .226/.313/.378, with 456 Ks in 1.374 career ABs.
In fairness, a reasonably decent pick, a good power guy who did not hit
enough to work out. Can't win 'em all.
4th round OF
CORY VAUGHN - the Mets hoped for
lightning in a family bottle here in drafting the son of high-powered former
major leaguer Greg Vaughn
and the nephew of "lethal-before-he-became-a-Met" Mo Vaughn. (My tablet
changed the spelling from Mo to No, so it is smart after all).
That family
thing, which seems to work so well for so many teams (ask Pittsburgh about Barry Bonds, Seattle about Griffey Jr), only has
worked in the Mets drafting Todd
Hundley (and Preston
Wilson, but he never suited up for the Mets).
Cory had a nice
first season for the Brooklyn Cyclones, but hit just .210 in both of his last 2
seasons in AA and AAA. He turned out to be a dud but was not that bad, so
he was not a terrible pick. Decent power, fine speed, struck out a lot
but not in the extreme...just not good enough.
5th round OF
MATT DEN DEKKER: the Mets gambled that
this fine defensive and quick-footed CF could fix his strikeout problem.
He did make the majors and in 350 at bats, hit .234, but in recent years
in AAA, has regressed. AAAA.
His 93 games
in Vegas in 2014 were his pinnacle, where it all seemed to be coming together
for Matt, when he hit .334/.407/.540, and my hopes for him soared - but it was
more of a flash in the pan than anything else. Essentially, he has been a
borderline MLB 5th OF, not terrible for a #5 round pick, but still mostly a Dud
pick. Why?
Borderline
5th OFs are abundantly available; quality MLB OFs are a scarcer commodity.
6th round
RHSP GREG PEAVEY - an all-too typical
Mets pitching pick...mediocre...his minor league final numbers were 45-39, 4.60
ERA, 60 homers allowed, and only 466 Ks in 667 P. Almost as good as a Logan Verrett, who was not
good. Hint to the Mets: draft power arms, not low velocity Peaveys type,
who usually stall out in the high minors.
8th round KENNETH MCDOWELL - he won three quarters of his decisions and had a career ERA
of 2.25. So what is the problem? He only threw 20 minor league
innings, fanned just 11, going 3-1 in his career and only making it as far as
Kingsport. The Mets would have been better off drafting Malcolm McDowell or Roddy McDowell (above).
Of course,
there were DUDES
(pictured above) and not just DUDS in the 2010 top 10 Mets' draft picks.
In the 9th
and 10th rounds, they drafted a former SS you may have heard of named Jake deGrom, a fine
fireballer who hits better than many of the bats they've drafted over the
years, and a now-24 year old Akeel
Morris, who appears like he may be a decent pen arm for the
Braves.
They also
drafted a Dark Knight in the first round named Matt Harvey, and Jeff Walters in the 7th
round, who looked like a promising reliever and good 7th round selection until
Tommy John paid him a visit, after which he was never the same.
In
2013, Walters was stellar at 4-3, 2.09 with 38 of 42 saves in AA - then
POOF went his career, as happens to pitchers so frequently, due to a TJS
injury.
A terrible
draft below round # 10; only useful pieces were Eric Goeddel (24th round) and Josh Edgin (30th round).
Overall,
2010's top 10 picks had its share of DUDS, sure, but they mostly got it
right...going with power pitching and power hitting and/or speedy position
players. Avoid the Peavey and McDowell softy pitcher types and it
might have been a great draft in those rounds.
Tom Brennan: DRAFT DUDS - 2011
Continuing
on with my DRAFT DUDS series, looking for patterns in why the Mets currently
have a minor league system envied by pretty much no one except - give me a
minute here, will ya?
OK, let me
get back to you on that...just not a good system right now.
Who in the
2011 draft's Mets top 10 picks were DUDS, and which were DUDES (that is, guys
who aren't duds, basically):
2nd round
RHP Cory Mazzoni has been a
disappointment, but not quite a dud. But he is more dud than dude, so for
this article, DUD.
Simply, his
minor league numbers have been quite solid - but the majors? Oh, boy.
2017 was a doozie, in which in rehab stints and AAA he threw 30 innings,
allowed 2 earned runs, walked 3, and fanned 48. Sweet. Then gets a
September call up and gets obliterated: 8 innings, 17 hits, 16 runs. Matt
Harvey was in shock that someone could be worse than him!
Cory's
lifetime in the majors has sure been productive, for his opponents, that is:
16.2 IP, 40 hits, 38 runs, 4 walks, just 12 Ks. Jekyll and Hyde BP
numbers on steroids. He no longer fills up at BP gas stations, hoping
something will change. He's no longer a Met organization guy, so enough
on him. Except to say it seemed like an OK pick that just did not work
out.
3rd round
RHP Logan Verrett: another guy who is more
dud than dude, given his being the 101st overall pick.
Extremely HR
prone, allowing a remarkable (for the minors) home run every 9 innings, he has
gone 6-10 in 150 major league innings with 114 Ks and a homer every 6 innings.
He was solid
enough with the Mets in 2016 over 14 appearances and 4 starts, and surprisingly
(to me, at least) Verrett had a brilliant April 2016 (3-0, including back to
back 6 shutout inning efforts and no HRs and just 1 earned run in 17 innings),
but he lost his last 8 decisions in 2016 as his ERA ballooned to 5.20, and as
he allowed an unsurprising 16 HRs over his last 74 innings. He went 2-0
in limited action in 2017 with the Orioles. Not a flamethrower, which is
largely why he is homer prone, a career-limiting defect, and which is why,
despite his MLB experience, he is a DUD.
4th round
RHP Tyler Pill: yet another guy who is more dud than dude because
of low velocity. He has largely been solid up to AA, but in AAA, he has
gone 5-7, 5.57 in 195 innings. Getting a surprising opportunity in early
2017 due to his good AAA pitching this season and a slew of Mets pitching
injuries, Pill failed to capitalize, going 0-3, 5.22 in 20+ innings. Nice
bat, but if I were drafting in the 4th round, I would (not to sound
repetitious) have taken a power arm.
5th round
LHRP Jack Leathersich - to me, he was a good
pick, a DUDE: wild, lots and lots of Ks, and just when he was showing he might
be a Mets bullpen guy, he blows his arm out and misses a season plus.
Nonetheless, the Cubs took him in Rule 5, figuring he'd be rehabbing most
of the year and thus not tie up a spot all season on their 25 man roster.
This season,
he was lethal in AAA for the last few months, got traded to Pittsburgh and was
impressive in relief in September. So, for a 5th rounder, it has been a
winding road, but I put him as slightly more dude than dud. I'd take him
back if I were Sandy. John Travolta, though, says NAH!
6th round OF
Joe Tuschak - DUD, DUD, DUD.
Played in 305 minor league games and hit a paltry .218/.298/.311.
Power bat? Nope. Bad pick.
7th round
1B/3B Cole Frenzel - the Mets did all right
once with a 7th round first base pick, but not this time...he hit
.237/.324/.345, with just 16 homers in 299 games. Not enough power, so it
was a DUD pick. I just wonder if Frenzel knows Denzel, then I'd really
like the pick instead.
9th pick RHP
Alex Panteliodis - why they picked him is
all Greek to me. The lefty had a 1.51 career WHIP and just 189 Ks in 300
IP, clearly far from major league caliber stuff - a wasted DUD pick, when they
instead should have grabbed a power arm. He was minor league filler, a
waste of a 9th pick. But they made Zorba
the Greek very happy. OPA!!
10th rounder
P Matt Budgell - DUD - a very short
career, spanning 36 IP, with just 26 Ks in rookie ball - a power arm, again,
would have been better. No available power arms? Then pick a power
bat.
This draft
was nonetheless quite interesting for the Metsies, as Brandon Nimmo has
not yet, but may still one day, prove to be the real deal and worthy of being a
first round pick; 2nd rounder Michael Fulmer has been special ever since
the Mets traded him; Danny Muno has performed as expected for an 8th
round pick, even if his was not a dazzling pick; picks 13, 14, and 15 were
nice, too, as the Mets nabbed Rob Gsellman, AAA catcher Xorge Carillo,
and an IF with MLB potential in Phil Evans.
Travis
Taijeron was a nice enough power
bat pick in round 18, even if his career stalls; John Gant a fine pick
for a 20th round pitcher; and Seth Lugo and Chase Bradford being
surprisingly good for 34th and 35th round picks.
So, overall,
it was a pretty good draft, but sullied by there being 5 DUD pitching picks and
2 DUD hitting picks in the first 10 rounds. Too many duds due to not
drafting power arms and bats whenever and wherever possible.
Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2012
2012's draft to me looked like a DUD, walked like a DUD, and quacked like a
DUD. It deserved a 17 DUD SALUTE.
A far from ducky draft.
Let's look at the 12 guys
they nabbed in Top 10 round -
7 duds (far too many) and
5 others of modest potential:
DUDS:
Gavin
Cecchini IF, pick # 12 round 1 - Cheech
seems to lack to skill set to be a successful first-half-of-first-round round
caliber - short on the 5 tools. Perhaps he will still become a decent
major leaguer, but...
Matt
Reynolds IF, pick # 71 round 2 - Cheech II
- need I elaborate? Why pick low power, low speed CHEECHES?
Teddy
Stankiewicz, P, picked # 75 round 2 - how you
can pick a guy as high as # 75 and he does not sign with you is bewildering.
He signed the next season, drafted, yes, in the 2nd round, with the Red
Sox (prefers the color red, I guess); he has been decidedly mediocre at
every level since, and has not fanned a ton of guys (398 in 577 career
innings). DUD. Stinky Stanky.
Matt Koch P,
picked # 107 round 3 - Stinky Stanky II, also decidedly
mediocre at every level since, and has not fanned a ton of guys (319 in 499
career minors innings).
Branden
Kaupe, a very short SS, picked # 140 round 4 - he was
also very short in his ability to hit and hit for power - a mere 4 doubles and
6 triples in 600 plate appearances. Bewildering.
Brandon
Welch, P picked # 170 round 5 - Stinky Stanky III,
except his career spanned only 65 innings in the minors, with 43 Ks.
Richie
Rodriguez, 3B, round 9 # 290 pick: classic
Mets DUD pick - why draft a 5'9", 170 3B unless he exudes something
special? His .161/.226/.236 line in about 260 rookie ball plate
appearances made him Kaupe II.
Then there
are the 2012 top 10 round picks that may turn out to not be duds, or were
good picks gone bad due to injury:
POTENTIAL
DUDES:
Kevin
Plawecki, C, pick # 35 Compensation Round A -
his strong
finish in 2017 with the Mets is a happily hopeful sign he may be a competent,
frequently playing major league catcher. Jury still out...
Jayce Boyd,
IF/OF, round 6 # 200 - never seen as a power
guy, his rib surgery messed up his throwing and hitting for a while. He
hit really well, and with power (.330/.400/.600), in his last 2+ months in AAA
in 2017, so my take is if it had not been for his rib/shoulder, he might
(hitting-wise) have been another Daniel Murphy.
If he can't
field in a big league caliber manner, though, his potential as a major leaguer
is a long shot.
Cory Oswalt,
RHSP, picked in round 7 # 230: slowed by
injuries prior to 2017, he was stellar in 2017 and may well turn out to be
an above-average pick. Quite possibly a Mets 4/5 type starter as soon as
at some point in 2018.
Tomas Nido,
C, picked in round 8 # 260: fine defensive catcher,
but the bat is still suspect - likely a back up major league catcher, possible
starter if the bat can take a leap.
Paul Sewald,
RHRP, picked in round 10 # 320: not a flame
thrower, but a really fine minor league reliever who took advantage of a slew
of injuries to crack the major league glass ceiling in 2017. Pitched very
well the majority of the time, but still managed to go 0-6. He strikes
out a lot of guys without raw firepower, and may still turn out to be a
solid-average major league middle reliever.
Did the last 30 rounds of
2012 (11 thru 40) yield any gems?
No.
Not
really...decent or potentially decent major leaguers only appear to include
righty reliever Matt Bowman and RHP Chris Flexen and 3 possibles:
Logan Taylor, Tim Peterson, and the traded Rob Whalen.
2012 METS DRAFT SUMMARY:
It is
abundantly clear that the Mets did not go into the draft focusing on drafting
power bats and power pitching.
The
non-power bats drafted collectively appear to have at best future modest
helpfulness at the major league level. Grade
D-.
The
pitching, almost devoid of power arms, is likely to have at most modest success
at the big league level. Grade C.
I did
not, for the sake of full disclosure, try to look at guys that other
teams drafted in the same rounds that were available to the Mets - but even
without doing that, the Mets sure could have done better by:
Focusing on POWER BATS AND
ARMS.
Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2013
2013 begins to be a time close enough to the draft to find it getting harder to
separate busts (DUDS) from solid picks (DUDES).
The Mott the
Hoople guy thinks they're all young DUDES, but I'm of a different opinion and
told him he should stick to rock.
Overall, I think 2013 was another weak Mets draft year because not enough
toolsy guys were picked. There were some real DUDS, no overwhelmingly
clear DUDES chosen.
DUDS
2ND ROUND ANDREW CHURCH, SP: I have not given up all
hope on Church, but his combo in 2017 of weak ERA in A ball coupled with a low
strikeout rate has me heavily leaning towards DUD....a 2nd round pick should
have more high octane velocity. One hopes, though, that Church pitches
every Sunday. Let's hope it's not in the church softball game.
3RD ROUND OF IVAN WILSON #76: I was tempted to put this bust of a draft
pick in the "dude" pile anyway, as I liked the pick - he had all the
tools...except for the tool that would fill in the gaping hole in his bat.
His strikeout rate, as he getting as high as full A ball, was far too
high.
It seemed he
had physical talent similarities to Aaron Judge, although unlikely to ever be
nearly as good, so hopefully he did not hang up the spikes too soon. But a wash
out that early, picked that high? DUD.
3RD ROUND SP CASEY MEISNER #84: traded in
the 2015 pitching prospect fire sale during a strong season, the now 22 year
old Meisner then went an awful 1-14 in 2016 and rebounded to a mediocre 10-9 in
2017. His K rate dropped to under 6 Ks per 9 IP after his promo in
mid-season to AA.
Seems like a
possible mediocre future MLB fringe starter, so this pick seems. much more DUD
than DUDE right now, given that he was a #84 pick, but he might swing the
pendulum towards DUDE in 2018 yet. Not a hard enough thrower to me to go
here in round 3. Draft flamethrowers in the 3rd round instead,
that's my free advice.
4TH ROUND LJ MAZZILLI, IF, 116TH pick: Awful
selection. LJ gets a 4 DUD Rating. Too old at draft time, too
mediocre in talent to be picked anywhere in the top 10 rounds....and Cody Bellinger
was available. What would a smart team do when faced with a choice
between these two? We all know what the Dodgers did. Smart.
5TH ROUND OF JARED KING: Simply put : Bust pick....less ability than
Mazzilli, lacked power, and average speed. You cannot waste 5th
round picks on guys with his talent level. All-too-typical dumb Mets pick, when
you should be drafting guys with power in the 5th round, not ones with (if all
goes well) a 5th OF ceiling. DUD.
6TH ROUND OF CHAMP STUART: Worth, IMO, taking a 6th round flyer on
this super-fast outfielder, but like Ivan Wilson, this man's prodigious
strikeout rate has him looking for all the world like a bust. He has
shown grudging progress year by year, but he appears to be a DUD
pick.
He should
still get another year or two to see if the K rate can be normalized, given his
speed gift. Watch Matty Alou tapes, Champ. Do like Matty Alou do.
9TH ROUND OF PAT BIONDI: Like Champ Stuart, except not as fast, less
power, and also a weak hitter. I would have picked a power hitter, rather
than a no-power outfielder, with this pick. DUD. Should have been
at best a teens pick.
DUDES - not too many, not too convincing:
1ST ROUND PICK, #11 OVERALL, 1B DOMINIC SMITH: tough call right now, but I still think Smitty hits better in
2018 after shedding some weight over the winter and turns into a good MLB 1B.
Jury, sadly,
is still out as to whether this #11 overall pick in the 2013 draft is dud or
dude... I will cautiously vote DUDE.
7TH ROUND 1B MATT OBERSTE: a solid player and decent hitter, he seems to
have been picked around the right round. His power has been disappointing
for a big guy, and my take is it may well keep him out of the majors.
Still, can't argue with him being a 7th round selection. Maybe he'll
fix the power and make it somehow.
8TH ROUND SP RICKY KNAPP: similar to Oberste, I
give Knapp a very cautious DUDE Rating, only because I believe he has performed
as one might expect a typical 8th rounder would. I would have picked a
harder thrower with that pick, if at all possible. He ran headlong into
the Vegas Wall in 2017, and his K rate was weak. Seems like he has a AAAA
ceiling, another Tyler Pill type. Roll the dice and draft power arms.
10TH ROUND IF LUIS GUILLORME: a very solid 10th round pick. The Glove
Wizard needs to continue to look for ways to add power and more OBP to
make him major league caliber. 2018 will be key for Luis, but it was a smart
selection by the Mets, although I have a preference for guys with power, if you
haven't caught on yet to my repetition.
Tyler Bashlor
Thankfully,
the draft didn't end at round 10 for our Metsies. In the 11th thru 13th
round, the Mets picked very well indeed, grabbing fireballing reliever Tyler Bashlor, Tom Brennan utility
favorite Jeff McNeil,
and big righty Kevin McGowan.
My only
problem with those 3 DUDES? That
they weren't picked during the first 10 rounds by da Mets. Shoulda been.
I really like all 3 of these
picks in 11 through 13.
Even with them, I give the
Mets a C- on this draft.
Poor job overall in
drafting, once again.
Power
pitching; power hitting. There's your formula.
Tom Brennan- DRAFT DUDS 2014
In scanning
the Mets drafts' top 10 rounds' selections since 2008, there are DUDS (i.e.,
puzzling to baffling picks) and DUDES (guys whose picks, given the rounds they
were picked in, make the Mets look smart.
(Please note
that when I characterize a player as a dud, it is the Mets who selected him
that I am criticizing, not the player, as I believe there had to be better
power hitting or power pitching candidates available for draft selection than
who they picked).
2014's DUDES LIST - TAKE 5:
First round
pick MICHAEL CONFORTO is the authentic article,
when healthy. This pick was a "DUDE"
bullseye. I won't elaborate; if ya don't know about this guy,
google him!
4th rounder
EUDOR GARCIA looked good as a
potentially legit stick man and 3B until he couldn't stay out of the PED candy
jar and then left the Mets for Mexico in 2017. All that is a puzzler, but
early on he looked like a DUDE pick. I won't penalize the Mets here, his
was a good pick that went awry.
7th rounder,
towering lefty BRAD WIECK, was dealt to San Diego
by the Mets in 2015. He is in my draft DUDE category because any guy
with 332 Ks in 249 minor league innings is worthy to elect and try to
refine. He walks a few too many, but could do some major league damage in
2018.
8th rounder,
1B DASH WINNINGHAM, was a very logical power
pick for that round. He's stalled in Columbia, hitting in the mid .230s each of
the past 2 seasons. But his 75 doubles, 42 HRs, and 226 RBIs in 1327 ABs
offer hope that he could accelerate as a 23 year old slugger in
2018.
DUDE PICK.
10th
rounder, LHRP KELLY SECREST, has done quite well for
a 10th rounder: 11-12, 3.26 with 187 Ks in 182 IP. Seven innings so far
in AAA...possible future MLB lefty reliever. In round 10, that is
DUDE-quality picking.
DUD PICKS?
I count 5:
Can't
criticize the Mets' 2nd round pick, except to note they did not have
one!! Losing the second rounder for a washed up Michael Cuddyer was a
DUD move.
3rd rounder
Milton Ramos, SS, might be a good fielder,
but he is another guy who makes Ruben Tejada look like A-Rod with
the bat. DUD PICK. Now an Oriole farm laddie.
5th rounder
JOSH PREVOST, RP, missed 2017 with an arm
injury but only fanned 125 in 189 IP before then, while going 11-14, 3.65.
Hitters have gone .289 against him. While he is big, his stuff is
not big enough...DUD PICK.
6th rounder,
C TYLER MOORE, is .211/.291/.288 in
over 200 games. Only 64 at bats above Full A. Gotta pick better
hitters, even if they are catchers, in round 6...DUD PICK.
9th rounder,
1B MICHAEL KATZ, put up good RBI numbers
(101 in 719 at bats), but not much pop (.335 slug %) and 248 Ks. Not a
terrible pick, but I will go with DUD here. He was released after 2016.
There were 3
very nice quality picks below the top 10, IMO:
17th rounder
and LHRP DAVE ROSEBOOM had a dismal, injury ended season in AAA in
2017 after a brilliant 2016 AA campaign. Hopefully, a healthy Roseboom
will rebound sharply in 2018 on his way to the bigs.
29th rounder
MATT BLACKHAM is a HARD THROWER who probably
slipped to the 29th round due to his size. After his obligatory TJS in
2016, he had a brilliant relief season with A ball Columbia: 1.42 ERA and
almost 13 Ks per 9 IP for the reliever. Matt - fast track to majors? We
will see in 2018.
40th rounder
DALE BURDICK is a young, hard hitting
IF with strong defensive fundamentals. His bat needs work, but I think we will
see young Burdick really blossom with more playing time in 2018. Already
reached AAA at age 21, even if for just 11 ABs. .217/.310/.369 in A, AA,
and AAA in 2017, but remember, he was only 21 in 2017.
Overall, I
give this draft a B-, as any
draft that gets us a talent like a Conforto starts out with at least a C grade;
I hope, though, that the Mets of Queens will not draft any more defensive
IFs and catchers in the first10 rounds who are small in stature and/or pop
gun bats and/or having trouble breaking a pane of glass with their fastball.
Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2015-17
In previous
DRAFT DUDS articles, I covered the top 10 draft rounds' picks for each of the
years 2008 thru 2014, identifying draft DUDS (what were the Mets thinking
picking those guys) and DUDES (smart picks, whether they panned out).
Guys I identified as DUDS were far less a critique of the selected ballplayers
and far more a criticism of those doing the picking.
In draft
years 2015-17, all covered in this article, I went less detailed on the
players, since if I am critical, these newbies don't need it. So here
goes:
2015 - an odd draft year where
almost all players drafted in round 21-40 by the Mets went unsigned. Regardless
of performance and injuries to date, I liked most of the Mets' top 10 picks
this time around. No first rounder, again, but I still like OF Desmond Lindsay in the
2nd round, the traded P
Max Wotell in
round 3 despite a terrible 2017 in his new organization, love the picks of 3B David Thompson and P Tom Szapucki in rounds 4
and 5, am OK with P Chase
Ingram in round 6, thought P Corey Taylor, C Pat Mazeika, and OF Kevin Kaczmarski were
very solid picks in rounds 7-9, and the luck ran out with P Witt Haggard in round 10.
After round
10, the selections of crafty
lefty PJ Conlon in round 13, fine starter Jordan Humphreys in round
18, and fine hitting Anthony
Domino in round 28 made for a quality DRAFT...except for that
forfeited first round pick.
2016 - brought us 2 first round
picks in Long Island pitchers Justin
Dunn and Anthony Kay. Not so good there so far, but very
hopeful for 2018. Pete
Alonso was a great 2nd round slugger pick, but the rounds 3-5
and #10 round hitters picked (Blake
Tiberi, Michael Paez, Colby Woodmansee and Gene Cone) I am
disappointed with - so far...maybe 2018 is breakthrough time for each, but it
seems like those crucial rounds' hitter selections could have been
better.
I want to
see more power hitting drafted in these rounds.
The Mets
went with pitchers in rounds 6 thru 9, and I like the Chris Viall (6), Austin McGeorge (7), and
Colin Holderman (9) picks. The fact that # 8 Placido Torres is
already released speaks for itself. Below the top 10, I like the 15th
round pick of super speedy OF Jacob
Damon, and a few relievers show some promise.
2017 - I
like the David Peterson
pick in round 1, as he may become a quality starter. I also like 2nd
round, 17 year old slugging IF
Mark Vientos. After that, time will tell, but I would
have wanted more power bats and less relief arms drafted in rounds 3 thru 10.
May I be proven wrong and all of the 3 thru 10 round guys dazzle us in
2018.
My
conclusion for draft years 2015 thru 2017 is that all 3 years were solid
pitcher-wise, but the drafting of hitters could have been greatly enhanced by a
greater emphasis on power bats. Why power?
Because
there are very few meaningful hitting roles at the major league level, and if a
player lacks power, he already has strikes 1 and 2 against him, unless he has a
true speed tool. If hitters lack power, most times they are wasted picks
in terms of meaningful future major league contribution. Draft a power
guy like a Paul Goldschmidt in the 8th round, or. Rhys Hoskins in the 5th
round, and you may find you've gotten really lucky with that pick.
IF YOU READ THIS FAR, I HAVE TO AGAIN CONCLUDE: DRAFT POWER!
