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11/11/17

Reese Kaplan -- Sandy Alderson's Stack of Chips


From Merriam Webster:

Definition of trade

The business of buying and selling or bartering commodities; an exchange of property usually without use of money 

Unlike the great fire sale of 2017 when Sandy Alderson exchanged prized cattle for some magic beans, most of the time trades occur when the parties involved both feel they have received equivalent or better value in what they obtained versus what they were forced to relinquish.

Towards that end, what commodities do the Mets control that have value other teams would covet and offer up equal or great value to obtain?  Examining what the Mets have may take a few stiff drinks, so let’s divide up the options into bar categories:

Top Shelf Quality

Jacob deGrom – Obviously a pitcher with near Cy Young level performance under age 30 is highly coveted by everyone.  He’s the type of player you tend to build around, but could also net you arguably the greatest return of anyone on the roster.
Noah Syndergaard – When he’s good he’s among the elite of the game, but last year’s lost season due to health problems puts him a tick below deGrom in the pecking order.  Still, if for some reason the Mets wanted to test the market for his value they would have 29 suitors fighting for the take-a-number machine to get the chance to obtain him in trade.
Amed Rosario – With the surprising bat and stellar glove work of Luis Guillorme continuing in the Arizona Fall League, the heretofore unthinkable option of trading Rosario would also generate nearly as many takers as would Syndergaard and deGrom.  I’m not advocating it, but if he netted you back 2-3 players who could fill positions of need, you’d at least have to listen.
Michael Conforto – In a way I could see even less likelihood of them trading Conforto than Syndergaard or deGrom since he was an early Alderson draft pick and one of the very few who has panned out.  Besides, until he’s proven healthy his value is greatly diminished.
Dom Smith – Despite the .198 batting average in his first taste of the big leagues, he showed more power than ever before and still carries with him the pedigree of high draft position and a reputation (if not meeting the eye test) of stellar defense.
Wilmer Flores – Some might argue I positioned him too optimistically, but his power over the past few years is simply getting better and better.  As a DH he would probably put up All-Star worthy numbers and earns relatively little, so his desirability for the right team would be quite high.
Jeurys Familia – Despite the suspension and health problems last year, he was a formidable closer and could likely net a significant return if they felt A.J. Ramos or a newly acquired arm could take over for him.
Yoenis Cespedes – No-trade clauses are meant to be broken and La Potencia has been floated as a name to go to the Marlins with their huge Cuban community if the Mets took on some of the salary they’re looking to dump. 
Peter Alonso – The reason they may consider moving Dom Smith (inserting Flores at 1B) is this guy who may be just a year away.  He’s shown the ability to hit for both power and average when he can stay on the field.  Of course, for these reasons he would also garner a lot of interest.
Corey Oswalt – the Minor League Pitcher of the Year is a time to consider selling high.
A.J. Ramos – a relatively inexpensive guy with closing experience was desirable enough for Sandy Alderson to strike a deal.  Another GM might feel the same way.
Jerry Blevins – He’s been nothing short of sensational since being acquired in, what was it called again???  Oh yeah, a TRADE that sent Matt den Dekker to the Washington Nationals.  Yup, put that one in the rare win column for Alderson.  Any team would want him but I think they’d have to be overwhelmed to even consider it.
Tyler Bashlor, David Peterson, Justin Dunn, Andres Gimenez and Mark Vientos – All are considered top prospects and high draft picks who are attractive wildcards to other teams willing to wait for them to develop.

House Brands

Steve Matz – His health primarily is what tarnished his otherwise stellar price tag.  Last year he was awful when he played but injuries seemed to be at the root of the problem.
Zack Wheeler – Hard throwers are always desirable even with the health problems he has had.  You won’t get much for him alone but as part of a package he might generate some interest.
Juan Lagares – Gold Glove outfielders who routinely make the highlight reels will never be out of work long, so a club that has iffy corner outfield defense might find the off-injured centerfielder worth acquiring.
Travis d’Arnaud – Mets fans may have soured on him due to his plethora of injuries and suspect throwing ability, but the fact is that he was hitting at an All-Star level last year extrapolated over a full season.  You’d most definitely find takers.
Matt Harvey – He’s the ultimate sell-low candidate right now which makes me think you should hold off until he’s produced through the All-Star break and then gauge his true value as a FA-to-be.

Generics

Seth Lugo
Robert Gsellman
Rafael Montero
Paul Sewald
Hansel Robles
Josh Smoker
Gavin Cecchini
Brandon Nimmo
Assorted other warm bodies



None of this last group is going to net much of a return so they might go as part of a package or for things you might feel you need such as a backup outfielder.  I left a few players out of the equation such as Asdrubal Cabrera who proved last year there was no market for him, so naturally they signed him again.

So what do these lists tell you?  The Mets do have some chips to trade. It would be great, for example, to target someone like say the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, but he’s not coming over here for a package of Smoker, Montero and Cecchini. You have to give to get. 

Would it be in the team’s long term interest to consider moving some of the top shelf quality to get back quantity?  They need an outfielder, starting pitching, bullpen help and arguably a 2nd or 3rd baseman.  What type of trades could you foresee being made?


10 comments:

  1. Boy, you are stretching the 'top shelf'.

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    1. Hansel Robles in the discount bin with Hall & Oates greatest hits

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  2. The team will do what we all expect which is the problem and I'm tired of this bottom feeding crap. Sandy get in the game and make meaningful moves like for Gordon or Stanton so we won't be relegated to second class citizens AGAIN and for the foreseeable future and like it's not bad enough now and they haven't added Otani yet....UGH!

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. As the saying goes, "A fish rots from the head down", and it all starts from the top in the Mets case. The Wilpons have already had Sandy roll it out there to us that they weren't going to spend as much; that they are going to cut payroll. This is so disappointing and disheartening and it's yet another kick to the stones. Please, someone, tell me that the highlight of this off-season, as a Mets fan since 1971, is NOT going to be the hiring of Mickey Callaway and Gary DiSarcina as his bench coach! I wish these two yutzis (Hebrew slang) would either 1.) sell the team to someone with deep pockets OR, 2.) spend a big chunk of money and hire a proven baseball man --like a Theo Epstein or someone of that caliber-- and let him build a killer system; good scouting, good player development, and coaching. So tired of watching the other team across town--who I hate--doing everything the right way and building a consistent winner, while our team is over .500 twice or three times a decade and hasn't won anything in over 30 years now. (Sigh).

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  5. Anonymous - keep waiting. And waiting. And waiting.

    They need to spend more than their $30 million free cash budget - double that to make up for bad luck (injuries) coupled with poor, cheap decision making - get some real players at all positions. Compete to WIN.

    Article title should be Alderson's Stack of Buffalo Chips. Big, stinky buffalo chips.

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  6. (It is up to around $40 mil now...)

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  7. @Mack -- "Top Shelf" at Costco and Sam's Club is not quite the same as top shelf at Chateau Lafite.

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  8. Boys, even $40 million is half stepping it, and we all know it. Impact teams need impact players. Which means real spending.

    $60 million feels like around a good starting point.

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  9. I think we are getting one nice bat, one tier b (non closer) good reliever, a reclamation project, innings eater and a guy who can play a bit of first base/of.

    I really like joel sherman's suggestion of kipnis today. maybe id prefer to send guillome and montero vs gsellman, but thats a good trade. a fair trade too.

    if you gave me: shaw, kipnis, adam lind, maybe a jon lackey type. id definitely call this an improvement.

    I think Flores is more of an asset then we tend to think, bc of how badly collins miss managed him. right handed hitters with some pop are just not out there to be found or asking 200 mm.

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