Tom Brennan – DOES KACZMARSKI HAVE THE KA-BAM?

Tom Brennan: DOES KACZMARSKI HAVE THE KA-BAM?

Kevin Kaczmarski is a very nice player: speed, solid on base %, good fielder – but the power #’s have been decidedly substandard for the aspiring outfielder.

In 1,291 career at bats, just 11 homers.  

More concerning, in 2017 in Binghamton in AA, just 18 doubles, 5 triples, and 5 HRs in 531 plate appearances, going .274/.370/.369.  

In baseball today, where the major leagues broke its old season home run record by nearly 400, with slightly over 6,000, or 200 HOMERS PER TEAM on average, there is clearly a HUGE focus on players needing power to succeed.

So is there any hope for low power K Kacz? 

Can he turn on the power, the “KA-BAM”?

I'm not sure – you’re better off asking him yourself, folks - but I have some hope re: future power for him, based on three comps: 

TJ Rivera, Jayce Boyd, and Brandon Nimmo.

TJ RIVERA:

Ever since joining the Mets minor league in as an undrafted kid from the Bronx, he hit really well.  He did not, however, walk a lot, and he did not have speed.  So his lack of power on top of those flaws made him look like another guy with a ceiling as a very good minor leaguer.  In fact, through 2015, he had just 22 homers and 116 doubles in 2,010 career at bats, with an on base % between .350 and .390. 

In 2016, though, he ramped it up – he led AAA in hitting at .353, and hit 11 homers with a .516 slug % in Vegas (and then, surprisingly, a .476 slug % in 105 at bats with the Mets).  He followed that with another very solid performance with the Mets in 2017 before needing TJS.

Simply put: for TJ in 2016, the power previously lacking showed up.

JAYCE BOYD:

Very similar to Rivera, he could hit, and even with a little more power than TJ, but no speed either.  He hit .330 in 2013, with 9 HRs and 29 doubles in 458 at bats.   Better on base % than TJ, low on strikeouts.  But he suffered a serious upper torso injury requiring surgery, and in his whole career, pre-2016, he had just 25 homers and 101 doubles in 1,641 career at bats, not enough Ka-Bam for a slow 1B/OF. 

In 2017, he got sporadic playing time in AAA early, then gunned the jets the last few months, ending up with 18 doubles and 11 HRs in 246 at bats, and close to a .600 slug % from July forward.

Simply put: for Boyd in 2017, the power previously lacking showed up.

BRANDON NIMMO:

The 2011 first rounder has never been a big power guy, with just 40 minor league homers in about 2,500 plate appearances.  But the power started to show up in 2016, with 47 extra base hits, including 11 HRs, in 392 official at bats in Vegas.

In an early 2017 slowed by injury, he hit just 4 homers in 181 at bats. 

When called up, though, he produced a solid 11 doubles, triple, and 5 HRs in 177 at bats for the Mets.   He picked it up from September 7 on, too, with 7 doubles, a triple, and 4 HRs in 83 at bats.

Simply put: in 2016 and 2017, for Nimmo, the power previously lacking showed up.

Circling back to Kaczmarski, and ignoring his first year in Kingsport, where he was assigned too low (should have been in Brooklyn) and hit in the .350's, he's averaged in A and AA ball in 2016 and 2017 the following:

504 at bats, 23 doubles, 8 triples, just 4 HRs, and .277 BA and a .365 OBP.  Low level power.

Does the soon-to-be 6’0”, 192 lb. 9^th round pick in 2015 have a real shot at a meaningful major league career?  

The answer, to me, is a resounding YES, if he, like Rivera, Boyd, and Nimmo before him, can turn up the POWER like they have. 

(Heck, it is possible Jayce Boyd can still reach the majors and have a meaningful major league career if he can field adequately and show that his red hot second half of 2017 with the bat was the norm and not a fluke.)

AFL results for K Kacz:  SO FAR, SO GOOD.  Mistakenly snubbed and not added to the AFL All Star team, what's he done so far? How about:

4th in AFL hitting - .375

6th in AFL OBP - .426

Slug % of .482, with a HR and 2 doubles amongst his 21 hits.

Yeah, I'd leave him off too. 

(Nido, who did make the All Star squad? .167.)

POWER TO THE PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY METS MINORS HITTERS!