So, I was reminiscing over the holidays and for some odd reason I started thinking about the show "The Price is Right”. Not so much Bob Barker, or his crazy cameo appearance on “Happy Gilmore” where he successfully fought Happy on the golf course, with the famous quote “the price is wrong, b#$th”! No, I was more interested in the various games of chance that take place on the show (but the aforementioned movie scene was pretty entertaining).
For example, do you remember the game “Now or Then” where the contestants had to guess if a random grocery item’s displayed price was current or from the past? Or, the game “More or Less” where the players were shown an item and a corresponding price that may or may not be correct. The player had to guess if the displayed price was more or less then the real price that was concealed behind the visible price. Oddly enough, these two games gave me an idea for a series of articles about our favorite team as we clear the holidays and head towards Spring Training.
The overall roster is largely complete, whether we like it or not. It also contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster. In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins, or fails to do so. I will select a different player for each article and it will include their “career” statistical average(s).
Once we have an average performance documented, we will play “more or less” using their career baseline as the "displayed price" (keep in mind that some players have more statistical data then others, so in cases where the major league data is lacking, I used their minor league numbers to produce a baseline). In short, if our key players mostly produce “more” then expected, it will likely manifest itself into a successful season on the field and a possible return to the playoffs.
The first player we will look at is arguably our most important player; Yoenis Cespedes
YC has played a total of six seasons in MLB, with teams in both the AL and the NL, so his statistical averages should be fairly reliable. Not so surprisingly, over the course of his career, he has averaged 131 games played per year (including a low of 81 games last year). If you throw out the 81 game aberration last year, his average games played for the other five seasons is 141 games, which is more reliable, but it also means that he has missed roughly 20 games per year.
I spent extra time on the games played stat because his availability, or lack thereof, will have a huge impact on the offense. The Mets are simply not the same team with YC out of the lineup.
I would sign up for his bat in the lineup for 141 games right now, to be honest. Especially since he is getting older and seems to be more injury prone as the seasons pass by.
OK, so how about his average production?
If you take 87% of his 162 game average (141 divided by 162), you would arrive at a statistical line of;
28 HR - 89 RBI - 7 SB - 81 R
.278/.328/.498 (BA/OBP/SLG) or an OPS of .826
3.78 WAR (Wins Above Replacement Level)
So, do you think YC produces more or less then the listed offensive statistics and why?
I like Cespedes going OVER what you portray - here's why:
ReplyDelete1) His training change should (most likely) make his legs baseball-durable.
2) When healthy, he is a darned good hitter.
3) I think he is finally serious about working on his hitting weaknesses (e.g., pitches up in the zone). Stanton works constantly on his weaknesses and it paid huge dividends in 2017. I truly hope Yo shows dividends similarly.
4) His OB % is higher.
5) His first season, in 2012, he struggled a bit in April and May, but then tore it up the next 4 months. His game #'s were lower that year. he has had 2 years of 150 + games.
6) He may start just 140 games, but should be able to pinch hit to push his total games over 150.
7) Just for once, I'd like a Met to go on a season long homer tear. I'd like to see him hit 45. I remember waiting decades for a decent season hit total, and finally Lance Johnson had that year with nearly 230 hits. I really hope this is the year the 41 homer team record falls.
Along with the health issues as he's gotten older, so to has his offense improved over the earlier part of his career. For that reason I would go with MORE.
ReplyDeleteI agree with both of you, so long as he gets enough at bats. I would like to see Mickey use him as the DH whenever possible (road games in AL parks), so he can get some rest, but still fortify the lineup with his bat.
ReplyDeleteI like Conforto hitting third and Cespedes in the "clean up spot". However, we still need another big bat behind him or YC will get pitched around.
Maybe Dominic Smith steps up?
I too would go with MORE.
ReplyDeleteTo me, Cespedes is one of those rare talents that can carry a team. The only things that seem to have stopped him from being the best in the game is his training regiment, his ego, and his sometimes laziness.
I think 2018 will be grow up year for Yo.
I go with MORE also, for the reasons already given. But in today's NY Post, there was an article that reinforces my belief about long-term contracts (they rarely work). Read this article, especially the bottom half, and you'll see what I mean:
ReplyDeletehttps://nypost.com/2017/12/28/have-these-megadeals-scared-mlb-into-hot-stove-freeze-2/