Michael Friere - More or Less" (Part Two)

If you read the first installment of this series, I mentioned my preoccupation with the game show "The Price is Right" and how a couple of the games reminded me of the Mets roster and their possibilities in 2018. 

For example, do you remember the game “Now or Then” where the contestants had to guess if a random grocery item’s displayed price was current or from the past?   Or, the game “More or Less” where the players were shown an item and a corresponding price that may or may not be correct.  The player had to guess if the displayed price was more or less then the real price that was concealed behind the visible price.  These two games gave me an idea for a series of articles about our favorite team as we clear the holidays and head towards Spring Training.

The overall roster is largely complete, whether we like it or not.  It also contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster.  In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins or fails to do so.  I will select a different player for each article and it will include their “career” statistical average(s).  

Once we have an average performance documented, we will play “more or less” using their career baseline as the "displayed price" (keep in mind that some players have more statistical data then others, so in cases where the major league data is lacking, I used their minor league numbers to produce a baseline).  In short, if our key players mostly produce “more” then expected, it will likely manifest itself into a successful season and possibly a return to the playoffs.

The second player we will look at is arguably our staff "ace";  Jacob DeGrom

JD has pitched a total of four seasons with the Mets (2014 through 2017), but a closer look shows a bit of a pattern developing.  In the even numbered years (2014, 2016) he appeared in 22 and 24 games, respectively (which is less then a full season).  However, in the odd numbered years (2015, 2017) he appeared in 30 and 31 games which is around the bench mark for a starting pitcher over the course of a full season.  If you blindly follow that pattern, then he is due for a season where he misses some starts, but hopefully that is not the case since he is a huge piece of the rotation puzzle.

To make things interesting (or as interesting as stats can be), I will list his statistical line for the two seasons he made at least 30 starts and then his statistical line for his

entire career.

(2015 and 2017 combined)                   (Career Averages - 2014 through 2017)

30.50 Starts - 196.33 IP                                  26.75 Starts - 170.33 IP

14.50 Wins and 9.00 Losses                         11.25 Wins and 8.00 Losses

3.04 ERA - 1.08 WHIP                                    2.98 ERA - 1.13 WHIP

222 K (10.18 K/9 IP)                                        182 K (9.62 K/9 IP)

48 BB (4.62 K/BB)                                            44 BB (4.14 K/BB)

4.55 WAR                                                           4.00 WAR

Clearly, JD is a very good pitcher as his career stats are not too far behind the "cherry picked" stats for his two better seasons.  My point here is to show that we need

a healthy DeGrom in 2018 and everything else will likely take care of itself at the top of the rotation.  

So, the question becomes do we get the dominant Jacob DeGrom from 2015 and 2017 which would be "more", or do we get something closer to his career averages, which would be "less"?    

Both versions would be an asset, but the JG that eclipses the 30 start plateau is a true "ace" and a foundation piece for a successful 2018 campaign.