Q and A - 2018 Starter or 2018 Reliever?

Reese Kaplan asks -

If you had to fortify EITHER the pen or the rotation which gets priority?

            Mack says –

                        Good question.

We need both, but my first choice would be a quality SP3 starter to go along side of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. If I can find the right guy here, I only need two more starters between Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Rafael Montero.

I would also get at least six quality innings here per appearance, rather than the one most relievers offer you. 

I would send Montero to be the SP1 in Las Vegas for the next 100 years (yes, let him stay there when we move to Syracuse) and let the other five guys duke it out in Spring Training for the open three slots.

Frankly, the losers here could become an integral part of the 2018 pen.

Tom Brennan says –

            I would fortify the pen - I think, perhaps naively, that the starting pitching will be healthier this year.  A few quality seasoned pen arms would keep the soothing pick Pepto Bismol in the medicine cabinet where it belongs.

Reese Kaplan says –

            Over the past seven years we've become accustomed to the approach of the 5-6 inning start, after which a bevy of bullpen arms would traipse in from the bullpen, often for just a single batter.  Not having seen how Mickey Callaway will choose to run his staff and bullpen, it's a bit hard to project, but I assume if a starting pitcher is getting it done, he won't be a slave to pitch count.  Furthermore, if a reliever is effective against the first batter he won't automatically get yanked if the subsequent batter happens to stand in the opposite side of the box from his pitching arm.

Assuming it's a clean slate, I think that the conventional wisdom of a shutdown bullpen has evolved due to the dearth of quality starting pitchers.  Rather than addressing the rotation mediocrity, many clubs are content to take the 5-6 inning approach and then provide a number of effective short-term solutions for an inning or two thereafter.  The economic impetus for that is obvious.  Even the most highly paid relievers like Aroldis Chapman only get paid about half of what premier starters do.  Role pitchers can be had for $6 million or less.  Many clubs (not in Queens) employ hitters on their bench in backup roles in that price range.

Personally, I think the money needs to be put into the rotation.  If you can ensure on a regular basis that the starting pitchers are sacrificing 4 runs or less then you have the opportunity to win nearly every game.  If the starting rotation has ERAs north of 6.00 then it doesn't matter how good your pen is.  The three headed monster of Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos and  Jerry Blevins should be sufficient for 7/8/9 with some supplemental arms to support them such as the rumored infatuation with Bryan Shaw (though Joe Smith would be far less costly).  Even without, you have Paul Sewald who pitched mostly well, the enigmatic Hansel Robles and the strikeout king, Josh Smoker.  Yes, another quality arm would help, but some of the excess starters could wind up in the pen.

If I have just $30 million or so to spend, I am putting at least 2/3 into the rotation which today sports deGrom, Syndergaard (injury recovery), Harvey (multiple injury recovery), Matz (injury recovery), Wheeler (injury recovery), Lugo (injury recovery), Gsellman (injury recovery/ineffectiveness), and Montero (inconsistency).  THAT'S where you need help. 

Gary McDonald says –

The way the game is trending , I would say the pen needs to be fortified.  Starters are fading away as a dominant force in this cycle.

Eddie Corona says –

            The question when FORTIFYING any position for the NY Mets on limited payrolls is all about quality. 

I would rather spend 20 Million dollars on a top talent than spend 10 million on 2 Mediocre talent. Therefore, I would not look at the situation as one or the other... Several years ago, the Yankees could not sign or acquire a top starter so they turned to building a top Bullpen... they did not sign a average No.3 starter but rather signed Andrew Miller...

Therefore, If I could sign a Yu Darvish I would since he covers 200 innings... However if not then Sign a top closer to push Ramos, Familia and Blevins down....

But to say sign a Lynn or Bryan Shaw and think they accomplished the task? I wouldn't think so... Neither would put this team over the top...

In a vacuum I still believe the few minor league talent we have left are Pitchers so I would bring in a Starter knowing I could convert one of my Pitchers into the Pen....

Michael Friere says –

If you look at the team's performance over the last three years (2015, 2016 and 2017), the biggest difference between the success during the first two years and the lack of success the third year was the performance of the pitching staff. While the bullpen struggled, you can see that a bulk of that was due to the high work load a certain former manager who won't be named exposed them to.  If you look deeper, the work load was in large part due to the poor performance from the starting rotation.

I think the strength of this team is the starting rotation, when they are healthy and performing as expected.  With fingers firmly crossed, I think 2018 will feature a much more competitive rotation, due to the presence of a new manager, better strength/conditioning awareness and better luck.  If that is the case, then Sandy should allocate a portion of his available funds to strengthen the bullpen, especially from the left hand side.   However, if the rotation does not bounce back, then it probably does not matter how strong the bullpen is.

David Rubin says –

I have to think that, with 8 starters with MLB experience and a wave of top quality arms within a year or two of making it to the big leagues, the bullpen has to be the team's priority. However, if we are going to finally sign a reliever to a multi-year deal, we should start with a reliever by the name of WADE DAVIS!! 

Familia is a free agent at the end of the coming season, and everyone else in the bullpen set up better in earlier innings. The talent Sandy acquired in this July-August FA fire sale didn't bring a future closer to the team, or at least none that we know of yet, and there's no way Sandy is going to pay market value for Familia. I know it's a pipe-dream to think he'd give the money to Davis, but after losing out on lefty Mike Minor you would think that getting decent bullpen arms versus getting a great bullpen arm, for an extra year and about $20 million over the life of a 3 or 4 year contract, shouldn't be a stumbling block for a big market team. Oh, wait- there I go again, forgetting that New York, or at least the portion that rests in the borough of Queens, isn't a big market- just ask the WIlponzi's or former Commissioner Selig!!!!!

Eddie Corona says –

           The question when FORTIFYING any position for the NY Mets on limited payrolls is all about quality. 

I would rather spend 20 Million dollars on a top talent than spend 10 million on 2 Mediocre talent. Therefore I would not look at the situation as one or the other... Several years ago the Yankees could not sign or acquire a top starter so they turned to building a top Bullpen... they did not sign a average No.3 starter but rather signed Andrew Miller...

Therefore, If I could sign a Yu Darvish I would since he covers 200 innings... However if not then Sign a top closer to push Ramos, Familia and Blevins down....

But to say sign a Lynn or Bryan Shaw and think they accomplished the task? I wouldn't think so... Neither would put this team over the top...

In a vacuum I still believe the few minor league talent we have left are Pitchers so I would bring in a Starter knowing I could convert one of my Pitchers into the Pen....

Michael Maar says –

I think pitching-wise, the priority should be on bringing in a top (#2 or #3) veteran starter with a track record of durability.  Obviously, the rash of injuries to the starting rotation last year was a top factor in the Mets' demise.  So I'd look to bring in a veteran to provide more depth, but also to help the dynamic in 2 other ways.  Firstly, a respected veteran SP could help mentor the younger starters on the Mets, offering wisdom on how to pace and make it through the long season.  Secondly, it would ratchet up the competition for the remaining rotation spots - survival of the fittest.  Thor and deGrom have hammerlocks on rotation spots barring injury at this point.  Add another veteran lock to that, and Spring Training would be an all-out competition for the remaining 2 slots to start the season.