Is the current roster capable of competing in the NL
East? Well, an awful lot of things would
have to happen for that fantasy to become a reality, but let’s take a look at
the best case scenario for the Mets in 2018 assuming no other significant
roster changes are made.
1B
Dom Smith’s weight loss and realization he’s not simply
being handed the position motivates him into the type of hitter he’s been in
the past. His power drops a bit as his
average soars and he finishes the season similar to what he did in AA --
.302/14/91. Wouldn’t you sign up for
that right now?
2B
Wilmer Flores finally is given a set position to play every
day and he responds, improving his hitting against right handers, keeping the
Ks down and playing a borderline acceptable defense given his strong offensive
showing. Say he’s good for .280/25/90. Perhaps finally those who hit don't sit.
SS
Amed Rosario shakes off the sophomore jinx and responds with
solid defense and terrific base running speed.
He’s not quite the wild runner in the mold of a Jose Reyes or Eric
Young, Jr. but he finishes the season north of 30 SBs to go along with a
.275/20/60 season.
3B
Here I anticipate the job is Asdrubal Cabrera’s on day one,
but eventually he will give way to T.J. Rivera as the nagging injuries that
plagued him over the past few years will only get worse. Combined they will deliver acceptable numbers
of about .280/15/65.
C
As much progress as Kevin Plawecki made last year in AAA and
then up in the majors towards the end of the year, I believe this is the year
Travis d’Arnaud finally puts together the season they’ve been expecting. Figure him for .270/25/85.
LF
Yoenis Cespedes remains healthy and delivers the value for
which the Mets are paying handsomely. He
is pitched around quite a bit, but sandwiched between lefties Michael Conforto
and Dom Smith he can’t be ignored complete.
Pencil him in for .285/35/110.
CF
Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo share this spot, with Nimmo
giving up quite a bit in defense but making up for it in OBP and better
ABs. Together they combine for
.270/15/60.
RF
Michael Conforto makes it back sooner than expected (by
mid-May) and still manages to reel off .290/30/90 for the partial season.
SP
All we’re looking for here is health. No one is disputing the talent of Jacob
deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey or Steve Matz. Zack Wheeler is the one starter with perhaps
the least firm foundation on which to stand, but there were glimpses from Robert
Gsellman, Seth Lugo and Rafael Montero who, under new sets of eyes and tutelage
could make steps forward.
RP
With no changes they have Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos, Jerry
Blevins, Anthony Swarzak and then an assortment of other contenders including
Hansel Robles, Paul Sewald, Chasen Bradford Josh Smoker, the starters who don’t
crack the rotation, the newcomers from last year’s salary dumps and some
interesting non-roster arms like Kyle Regnault.
At the risk of sounding uncharacteristically Pollyanna-ish, it’s not a bad team. True, there’s only one true superstar in Yoenis Cespedes and a recovering star in Michael Conforto. None of the others are anywhere near best at their positions, but an aggregate of a lot of .270/20/75 types means that a single loss due to injury won’t hurt nearly as badly as it will when you bank on 3-4 stars. Health is the key. Obviously some additions to the roster would help, but if they all stay healthy, are these numbers way out of whack? If not, are they enough to contend? I think they are…though as a project manager I’d be creating solid risk remediation plans now, not after the problems happen.
Each one is plausible...collectively improbable, though. And, given the supposed tight remaining budget, ownership is banking on the improbable...call it "fingers-crossed ownership."
ReplyDeleteI for one hope that Cespedes does even better - how about 45 homers?
What happens after the first few injuries?
ReplyDeleteBob, "What happens after the first few injuries?"
ReplyDelete2017 does.
Bingo!
DeleteConsidering they have had no plan for injuries since the first David Wright debacle many, many years ago, I would think they tank rather spectacularly or go out and find the next James Loney types. What they should do in the event of major injuries is what the Jets should have been doing all year -- testing the younger players to see if they are capable.
ReplyDeleteWho are you and what have you done with Reese? I like your thinking here. 😀
ReplyDeleteWhy is a mid-May return for 4to "sooner than expected"? I haven't seen any expectations later than that. Most "reports" (we know how accurate they are, right?) I've seen expect him back by the start of May. There's no way to know yet, but I'd say mid-month would be later than expected, and if his return is that late we'd be ecstatic if he reaches 30 HRs.
But keep the positive thinking going. 👍
Syndergaard, DeGrom, and Familia all can perform at star level. Rosario is a huge key, if he can show some development with plate discipline and shift to the top of the order, that will significantly change the complexion of the offense. This is the shame of this team, another quality arm in the pen, another reliable starter, and a solid infield addition at either 2b or 3b and they have a shot at the division. Those additions do not require top shelf free agents or a major financial commitment, but the do require additional spending.
ReplyDelete@Metsiac -- Nah, I have to sober up eventually :)
ReplyDeleteI also notice you didn't comment on the veiled criticisms of Saint Terry -- about people starting who hit and about new eyes and tutelage to help pitchers succeed :)
Hey stranger!
ReplyDeleteBill beat me to this.
I got going late today and just read this post, which was obviously written by someone sitting in for Reese during the Holiday season.
Was it your wife? Your grandson? Your kitten?
Mack and Bill, Reese has multiple personality disorder - the positive one showed up today LOL. Rooting for this team can lead to twitching and other manifestations which don't always show up in posts. I twitch a lot, but I don't tweet.
ReplyDeleteReese,
ReplyDeleteAfter last season, lets hope for the best in 2018. But I need to be drinking that same eggnog, just in case.
@Mack -- my wife, perhaps...childless by choice unless you count the four 4-footed children of the right species that bark, not meow.
ReplyDeleteReese, It's nice to see you at a meeting of my Cockeyed Optimists club, even if it is just for today. As you can taste, we spike the egg nog with some pretty strong stuff.
ReplyDeleteI am going to deviate slightly from your premise, since the current roster will certainly not be identical to the one going into spring training.
1B: The combo of Smith/Flores will be potent, with Flores getting additional ABs while filling in at 2B & 3B, thus with each of them getting 400 ABs and providing a combined .290/30/125
2B I am betting that when the smoke clears, we will see Jose Reyes starting at 2B, getting off to a hot start (and continuing his performance from the 2nd half last year) .275/15/65
SS: Your analysis of Amed is good with me. I think he and Reyes combine for over 50 SBs
3B Your analysis here makes sense too.
C: I think the Plawecki we saw after he returned last year is the real Plawecki, and he asserts himself to get the majority of time behind the plate. .290/18/75 Travis will still get time there too, .265/15/60 but they will start giving him reps at 1B.
LF: From your mouth to God's ears.
CF: I think they will get more from the Nimmo/Lagares combo than we might think. .280/24/75 Good enough to stay in place after Conforto comes back in early May.
RF: Surprise. I'm gonna say they sign Andre Ethier to a minor league deal and he wins the RF job out of ST, but gets pushed out by Conforto when he returns. In his brief stay Ethier goes .260/6/15 and when Conforto takes over I'll guess .295/27/85.
I'll stick with your pitching prognostications, and say that this team is good enough to keep us in the hunt until mid-July, when reinforcements are brought in.
Herb, like it, sir.
ReplyDelete@Herb -- Ethier? I know they have a Dodgers fetish but you'd think they would run scared from people with injury histories given their own experience in the ER arena.
ReplyDeleteThe ER arena is where the bargains are.
DeleteGeniuses (in their own mind) know this
Well done, Reese......I think a majority of your projections are possible, simply with better management (finally) and better health. As with most things, the unexpected will likely occur, both good and bad.
ReplyDeleteLet's just hope the bad doesn't include our foundation pieces.
As constructed (with better health), this roster should approach 83-85 wins which should be the fringe of the Wild Card chase. Add a few more pieces (like Brian Dozier at 2B, or maybe another bullpen piece and/or a veteran starter) and I can see them approaching the 90 win plateau.
IF they perform as you suggest in your high end estimate AND they add a few extra pieces, I think they would throw a scare into the Nats.
I really don't understand why Cabrera is so disrespected by many fans, here and elsewhere. In his 2 years here, he's hit .280 both times, and even missing time with injuries he's close to 40 HRs. He's a SHer who has been fine in the clutch, and is still around the same age as Longoria, but without the 5 year albatross.
ReplyDeleteGiven the added incentive of FA after the season and his desire for another contract (here or elsewhere), I expect a solid season from him.
Bill, I think there is mental residue, from the negative writings during the season by a former Macks Mets writer, on how people now perceive Cabrera. I think he is fine for this year, but no longer a SS except in a pinch. 3B s/b fine. .280/.343/.455 is plenty good over 2 Mets seasons from Asdrubel - that would be fine in 2018 too.
ReplyDeleteI can live with him at 3B for one season......I would prefer a better glove and a bit more power at the position, but AC should be solid for 2018.
ReplyDelete2B is a much bigger problem.
Thank you, Thomas.
ReplyDeleteReese- As you know, I believe that the $10 million that the Mets are said to be limited to will not hold as the off-season progresses. If that's the case, they will sign a decent OF to a major league deal. But if I am playing the game and keeping to the budget, I would only have money to sign one position player, and I think it will be Reyes.
metsiac- I agree with you. Cabrera has provided solid offense for us, and adequate defense, although with limited range. I have no beef with activating his option. His days at SS are over, and I would prefer to see him at 2B rather than 3rd because I think his arm and his reflexes are not aging well.
Good points, Herb. I give extra weight to signing Reyes over Phillips because of what he means as mentor to Rosario. And he WANTS to be here, which means more to me than a player just chasing the $$$ (which Jose was when he first left the Mets).
DeleteIf you had to pick one...Reyes or Brandon Phillips?
ReplyDeleteBill, I agree on Reyes over Phillips for those reasons, and also because he is 24 months younger than Phillips, who is reaching relative old age in baseball.
ReplyDeleteI don't put much weight on the age factor between the two. I'd take either of these over the much younger versions of Baerga and Alomar in their Mets years.
ReplyDeleteFrom another angle...I think that the Miamia Marlins may have a couple of players currently being rumored for trade, that these NY Mets should possibly consider. They are starting catcher power-bat JT Realmuto and Christian Yelich. Realmuto and Plawecki are about the same age, but Realmuto has more power and more experience. To me, the two would make for a "terrific platoon" behind the dish and every MLB team needs two really good catchers in today's game.
ReplyDeleteChristian Yelich had like 18 HR's in 2017 and hits for a really solid BA every season now. He's still just 26 years old. Possibly playing Mets RF if Mets can see the good of moving Cespedes to first base.
Miami Marlins have two starters right now really, Straily and Urena. They need Steven Matz (age 26). So the Mets maybe could offer Matz, Flores, Smith, and Molina for Marlins' C JT Realmuto (age 26), Christian Yelich (age 26), and kid lefty starter Braxton Garrett, coming back from TJ surgery, but worth the wait.
I stay clear of Pirate's 2B Josh Harrison. He is being touted as a tier one star but is not. His $10.0 million contract he will command in 2018 (at age 31) could be too much. Another older player signing for another team not ours. (Please)
Middle Infield is not the problem here. Yes, with rookies SS Amed Rosario and 2B Luis Guillorme starting, maybe one could stumble a bit early on hitting wise. But that's why the Mets have Jose Reyes and TJ Riveria as utility players. Right? By end of May all could be very smooth sailing with these two kids up the middle. They definitely have the defense!
Why the above trade: Rosario and Guillorme have serious skillsets and could help each other grow, especially with Reyes there to tutor them. Adding JT Realmuto and Christian Yelich (both still young) the NY Mets would strengthen their core nucleus nicely. The Marlins get another top-end starter in Steven Matz, a lefty, Wilmer Flores, future stud pitcher Marcos Molina, and Dominic Smith. If the Mets go with Yoenis Cespedes on first base, they could back him up with Jhoan Urena from Las Vegas. He had a decent enough 2017 there.
Also, on the above trade proposal with Miami. Each player named (except Flores) is right around the MLB minimum salary.
ReplyDeleteSo, if this were to go through (and it is just a crazy idea right now and no more) what would theoretically be remaining to do for these NY Mets? Just acquire a really solid, youngish lefty starter. Someone who maybe can actually stay on the field all season long, if humanly possible. The team is "starter cursed" or something, but by adding in Kyle Regnault as the sixth starter it might all just work out.