Tom Brennan: 2017 HIGH CONTACT MINOR LEAGUERS
After seeing Travis Taijeron fan more than a houseful of sweating geisha girls when he was called up in September, it drove home the importance of being able to put bat on ball with regularity.
Here are the 13 guys in the 4 full season leagues who seemed to be best at it.
Observations: most of the 13 had little power to go along with their high contact - 8 of the 13 had slugging %'s under .400. Also, the 4 Las Vegas guys listed all got playing time in the majors in 2017, and 3 of the 4 struck out almost twice as frequently, showing how tough the transition is.
The one guy who did well with low strikeouts in both Vegas and Queens (Plawecki) had a high K rate in the majors in his first 2 cameos in 2015 and 2016, but seemed to be much improved in 2017. Considering that, it is quite likely we will see a similar dramatic improvement in major league K rates from both Rosario and Smith in 2018.
We need to hang out a sign in Queens: HIGH POWER/LOW K HITTERS WANTED! LIGHTS! CAMERA! CONTACT!
AAA:
Gavin Cecchini:
497 PAs, 61 Ks (K every 8.14 PAs): .267/.329/.380; 36 XBHs
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19 Ks in 82 MLB PAs (K every 4.31 PAs)
Amed Rosario: 425
PAs, 67 Ks (K every 6.34 PAs): .328/.367/.466; 33 XBHs
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49 Ks in 170 MLB PAs (K every 3.46 PAs)
Dominic Smith: 500
PAs, 87 Ks (K every 5.74 PAs): .330/.386/.519; 52 XBHs
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49 Ks in 183 MLB PAs (K every 3.73 PAs)
Kevin Plawecki: 275
PAs, 38 Ks (K every 7.23 PAs): .328/.375/.514; 27 XBHs
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17 Ks in 118 MLB PAs (K every 6.94 PAs); in 2015
and 2016, 409 MLB PAs, 93 Ks (K every 4.39 PAs)
AA:
Kevin Taylor: 446
PAs, 53 Ks (K every 8.41 PAs): .292/.375/.373; 24 XBHs
Luis Guillorme:
558 PAs, 55 Ks (K every 10.14 PAs): .283/.376/.331; 21 XBHs (and how about just ONE K in about 50 Arizona Fall League plate appearances? THOU SHALT NOT PASS!)
Kevin Kaczmarski:
531 PAs, 84 Ks (K every 6.32 PAs): .274/.370/.369; 28 XBHs
LJ Mazzilli Jr:
425 PAs, 66 Ks (K every 6.43 PAs): .254/.340/.362; 29 XBHs
HIGH A:
Anthony Dimino: 243
PAs, 29 Ks (K every 8.37 PAs): .330/.407/.373; 8 XBHs
Patrick Mazeika:
373 PAs, 59 Ks (K every 6.32 PAs): .290/.389/.416; 33 XBHs
Peter Alonso: 346
PAs, 64 Ks (K every 5.40 PAs): .289/.359/.524; 46 XBHs
FULL A:
Andres Giminez: 399
PAs, 61 Ks (K every 6.54 PAs): .265/.346/.349; 17 XBHs
Ali Sanchez: 200
PAs, 26 Ks (K every 7.69 PAs): .231/.288/.264; 4 XBHs (Wow, just an extra base hit every 50 at bats - that needs to improve in 2018, contact or no contact. By comparison, Fanning Travis Taijeron had a minor league XBH rate of better than 1 every EIGHT at bats!
Hey everybody, with the holidays approaching, ask your favorite minor leaguer to stay in contact.
Maybe my reference should have been to Al Franken and sweating geisha girls? Al was a heavy hitter for the Dems until he just announced his retirement; plenty of contact. A little political satire using a bit of baseball parlance.
ReplyDeleteTom -
ReplyDeleteI love your posts.
They continue to scream of stats that can not be debated.
My guess looking at this... it is obvious that Guillorme does not strike out. Could this attempt to make contact rather than drive the ball result in the lack of extra bases here?
Mack, you may well be right on Luis.
ReplyDeleteSomebody has a sports series called Ball Don't Lie, I think. Stats don't lie much either.
The big difference between him and other low power, high defense guys of yore (Harrelson, Flynn, Ordonez, Millan) who had somewhat more power than Luis? Luis has about 30 more pounds on him than they did - so my guess is a 200 pound guy most times can out slug a 170 pound (or less) guy. Luis does not need to hit homers, but if he can get his extra base hit rate up to somewhere between 1 every 15-20 plate appearances, from his career rate of one every 30+, it would be a big plus, I'd think.
I've corresponded with Luis' father about this and he assures me that Luis is aware of where he needs to step up his game. They have been working at it all off-season and will continue to up to April.
ReplyDeleteVery good article, Tom. There's no doubt that high power /low K is a great combo, but rare, like a car that goes from 0-60 in 8 seconds but gets 35 mpg.
ReplyDeleteI remember debating folks years ago at another site about Adam Dunn, who made Dave Kingman look like a contact hitter.
How many MLers give high HR rates with low Ks? Babe Ruth didn't, but still was well over .300 for his career. Ditto Mickey Mantle.
I put OBP in there as a 3rd category. If a guy can hit 30+ HRs with a. 360+ OBP, I don't care how many of his outs are whiffs.
Mack, that's great. Nothing I'd like to see more than Luis succeed big time.
ReplyDeleteBill, I agree on your 3rd category. You want a power guy who didn't fan? Joe DiMaggio - look up HIS #'s. Wow
The apologists for Curtis Granderson would point out his OBP but a .230 hitter is still a .230 hitter.
ReplyDeleteReese, on the latter point, got an idea for an article earlier today which, if I do not forget it, I will actually write and have come out just after Christmas
ReplyDeleteYes, Joe D did it all, as did his chief rival, Ted Williams. But they also had great OBPs. My point is that if a player hits HRs and his the OBP, I care more about how MANY outs he makes than how he makes them.
ReplyDeleteJoe Torre had great seasons where he led, or was close to the lead, in DPs, which generally result in more outs than Ks. But he hit for average, hit for power, and got on base.
Grandy had a lot of Ks, but but hit HRs and got on base. His .230 BA was definitely a downer, but saying "a .230 hitter is a .230 hitter" is just plain wrong.Ruben Tejada hit .230 last year, and is a career .251 hitter. Would you rather have him at the plate?
My take on Grandy...real nice guy, far too streaky last year. His horrible April had Mets on a precipice by May 1.
ReplyDelete