Tom Brennan - PLAYERS BY WIN/LOSS EXPECTATIONS
You've seen bad teams come to Citifield and probably seen their starting players and thought, "no wonder why this is a 65-70 win team."
Likewise, you've seen teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros in the playoffs and no doubt thought, "with players like that, it is no wonder why these are 95+ win teams."
Baseball of course is not like other sports like basketball, where a great team like the 2016 GS Warriors could go 73-9 (.890 winning %) or a team like the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76er squad could go 9-73 (.110 winning %).
Baseball's boundaries are tighter - the 1962 Mets went 40-120 (.250) and (ignoring the prehistoric 1906 Cubs team that went 116-36) the Seattle Mariners not too many years ago went 116-46 (.716).
So, as we all know in baseball, no matter what sort of team you field, you will not win, or lose, anywhere near 90% of your games. The range seems to be set at winning somewhere between 40 and 116, with a realistically normal range of 55 to 100 wins in a given season for the 30 teams.
So, going player by player, what sort of a line up did the Mets field for most of 2017, and how about how it looks for 2018 right now? What player, if healthy, would you rank as the type of starter you'd expect to see on a 65-70 win team, which one on a 90-95 team? Let me proceed:
2017 METS:
1B Lucas Duda - 70-75 wins
2B Neil Walker - 80-85 wins
SS Jose Reyes - 75-80 wins
3B Asdrubel Cabrera/TJ Rivera - 75-80 wins
IF Wilmer Flores - 80-85 wins
C Travis d'Arnaud/Kevin Plawecki - 75-80 wins
RF Curtis Granderson - 75-80 wins
CF Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares - 85-90 wins
LF Jay Bruce - 90-95 wins
OF Yoenis Cespedes - 90-95 wins
Average: 80-85 wins from this 2017 offense.
This feels about right - the historically bad Mets' pitching performance in 2017 was probably the kind of pitching effort that would rank as about a 55-60 win squad. Average the numbers above for offense and pitching gets you to around a 70 win squad.
2018 METS:
1B Dominic Smith - 65-70 wins - foresee a continuing acclimation period. 75-85 win player in 2019.
2B Wilmer Flores - 85-90 wins - despite the glove issues, I see a leap in offense and hence a leap in his win contribution
SS Amed Rosario - 80-85 wins - I think 2018 is the year he needs to get to All Star caliber in 2019
3B Asdrubel Cabrera/TJ Rivera - 75-80 wins
IF Jose Reyes - 75-80 wins
C Travis d'Arnaud/Kevin Plawecki - 75-80 wins - offense above average, defense below.
RF Brandon Nimmo - 65-70 wins - jury is still out on Nimmo
CF Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares - 85-90 wins
LF Yoenis Cespedes - 90-95 wins
Average: 77-82 wins from this 2018 offense.
So this little subjective exercise shows that as the 2018 team is now projected, a slippage of win potential by 2018's offense compared to 2017's of about 3 wins.
To me, for this team to win 85 games in 2018 with this offense, the pitching ought to be approximately talent-wise the type of team that can win you 90 games (an average of 80 win quality produced by the offense, plus 90 from pitching, gets you to 85).
But 85 wins won't get you to the playoffs - but 90 might.
With that 90 win target in mind, with a 2018 offense I think, as it stands, is capable of winning 80 games, that would mean the pitching would have to pitch at a 100 win level, far too much to ask from the team as now constructed, and from a team whose pitching provided 55-60 win quality last year.
Let's assume we get a near Cy Young performance out of Thor this year, a full, healthy year out of Familia, and much better performance out of Matz and Wheeler (and Harvey, or the pitcher we might get back in a trade for him).
I think with that. the high side for this pitching staff could be 85-90 win quality, an average of 87. That, plus the 80 wins that it looks like the offense might provide, would get this team to 83-84 wins.
Absent a real fix from trades or free agent acquisitions, that optimistic win-loss record of 84 wins won't get this team into the playoffs in 2018.
In hindsight, if the Mets were highly aggressive, maybe they could have constructed a similar deal for Stanton and got him instead of the Yankees - maybe include Steve Matz and Nimmo to match the Yankees' package, maybe sweeten it somehow.
Stanton is a 105-110 win player, in my books, and bumping Nimmo's 65-70 wins out and slotting Stanton in would have added about 5 more team wins overall (personally, I think more than that). Then, pick up a quality free agent starter to replace Matz and this looks like a 90 win team to me - in the running for the playoffs, especially if the Mets did July/August playoff run player acquisitions as they did in 2015.
As of right now, the playoffs would be a pipe dream. The Yanks, in acquiring Stanton, would need a catastrophe not to return to the playoffs.
The Mets need less wishful thinking and more action on this roster to make it a legit playoff contender in 2018.
What say you?
A very interesting piece.
ReplyDeleteWell written.
Thanks. If Sandy does corral, say, Kipnis and Bruce, we'd be a lot closer to being a contender in 2018, at least on paper.
ReplyDeleteKipnis is a major waste of scant resources. I could be on board with Bruce but I'd feel better about Cain. Assuming the much ballyhooed $30 million, $7 is gone already, so I would look at $16 million on Cain and another $7 million for another pitcher. Use Flores at 2B to help replace some offense.
ReplyDeleteReese, I would love to see Cain here, but it never gets mentioned.
ReplyDeleteWe've got the writer's take on who should be the 2018 second baseman coming up at 12 noon.
ReplyDeleteAn advance on me...
I'm stuck on Guillorme's glove in 2019.
Thus, I don't want to spend any big bucks on this position in 2018.
I'm a middle infield freak and I believe this team can win with the pitching they have, if they stay healthy and the middle infield is strong. This is where Gully comes in along side of Amed Rosario.
As for 2018... give the job to Wilmer Flores until he either bobbles it away or we pull the rug out from under him again.
If his bat doesn't make up for his glove, by the time they come to that conclusion T.J. Rivera should be back.
ReplyDeleteTommy John Rivera
DeleteWhere do I even start?
ReplyDeleteSandy the Genius wants to fix the hole at 2B which he created himself by letting Murphy walk.
Now he has a similar player to Murphy in which he doesn't have the greatest defense but can hit and hit for power. What does this imbecile of a GM want to continue to do? find any other 2B that is not a Mets player even if they numbers suggest that what's in-house is a better option at this time. Flores, TJ Rivera, Cecchini, Guillorme can all play 2B but he feels he needs to trade for yet another.
But even with his immense brain capacity, or at least his big head, he can't see the obvious players to quickly improve the Mets. Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Reed. To me, that simple. Is that going to make the Mets better than the Nationals? no, but at least it gives the Mets a good chance if the starting pitching rebounds. And since, they don't and won't pay for the best players available, that's a start.
But the same broken record is playing...we need a 2B, 1B while ignoring the gaping hole at 3B because Wright will fill it once he comes back as a LH 3rd baseman.
As I have often said here, the Mets could and should be the class of the NL but unfortunately, we have cheap owners, way over-hyped GM and Larry, Curly and Mo helping him.
You have to look with envy how a true organization is managed across town. How quickly and decidedly decisions are made to not only improve the team but to make it a powerhouse.
Viper, agreed, I can't help but "look with envy how a true organization is managed across town. How quickly and decidedly decisions are made to not only improve the team but to make it a powerhouse."
ReplyDeleteIt is painful to watch.