More or Less? (Part Five)

If you read the first four installments of this series, I mentioned my preoccupation with the game show "The Price is Right" and how a couple of the games reminded me of the Mets roster and their chances in 2018. 

For example, do you remember the game “Now or Then” where the contestants had to guess if a random grocery item’s displayed price was current or from the past?   Or, the game “More or Less” where the players were shown an item and a corresponding price that may or may not be correct.  The player had to guess if the displayed price was more or less then the real price that was concealed behind the visible price.  These two games gave me an idea for a series of articles about our favorite team as we clear the holidays and head towards Spring Training.

The overall roster is largely complete, whether we like it or not.  It also contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster.  In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins or fails to do so.  I will select a different player for each article and it will include their “career” statistical average(s).  

Once we have an average performance documented, we will play “more or less” using their career baseline as the "displayed price" (keep in mind that some players have more statistical data then others, so in cases where the major league data is lacking, I used their minor league numbers to produce a baseline).  In short, if our key players mostly produce “more” then expected, it will likely manifest itself into a successful season and possibly a return to the playoffs.

The first four articles covered Yoenis Cespedes (voted MORE), Jacob DeGrom (voted MORE), Michael Conforto (voted LESS) and Noah Syndergaard (voted MORE).

The fifth player we will look at is a steady veteran, with a bit of a "all or nothing" reputation at the plate;  Jay Bruce (welcome back)

Sandy comes out of this situation "smelling a bit like a rose" when you consider that we obtained a prospect in a trade for JB last year and now we have him back via a newly signed three year deal (sort of like having your cake and eating it too).  I like the thought of his bat in the middle of our lineup, especially when you compare it to some of the other options that we were considering just a couple of days ago.  However, I do worry that it will come at a cost, which will likely be a drop in outfield defense and possibly the loss of a highly regarded prospect in Dominic Smith.

If JB plays right field, then Michael Conforto has to move to center field since Yoenis Cespedes is entrenched in left field and does not like to move around.   I suppose MC is adequate defensively in center field, but for him to play there regularly then Juan Lagares and his "golden glove" has to move to the bench or out of town via a trade.  If JB and his "lefty bat" instead plays regularly at first base, you introduce different defensive issues (not his natural position) and you also block Dominic Smith's ascension since he is also a "lefty".

Those are problems for Mickey Callaway to figure out at the end of the day.  For the purposes of this article, let's assume that JB will get a full season's worth of at bats alternating between right field and first base.  They didn't sign him for 3 years and 39 million dollars to sit on the bench, after all.

Since 2008, JB has played in the major leagues for several different teams, to include the Reds, the Mets and the Indians.  During that time, he has appeared in 1,416 games and he registered 5,806 at bats.  Using ten years as the divisor, JB is averaging approximately 142 games per year and roughly 581 at bats which means he has been pretty durable (especially when you compare his track record to Yoenis Cespedes' reliability, or lack thereof).  Now that he is a bit older, if he can continue to be available close to 88% of the time (as he has been), I think that would translate into a series of successful seasons and justification for his current contract. 

So what does an average JB season look like?

.249/.319/.472 or an OPS of .790

28 HR - 84 RBI - 6 SB - 75 R

1.89 WAR

BUT, last year he was much better then his career averages;

.254/.324/.508 or an OPS of .832

36 HR - 101 RBI - 1 SB - 82 R

2.9 WAR

I think his career averages are pretty solid and his season last year was a notch above that.  What is intriguing is that a majority of his at bats last year were with the Mets, which is a good omen for his ability to "handle New York" and the expectations of a new contract.  

Another angle to consider is that 1 WAR is roughly equivalent to an eight million dollar per year salary.  If that is the case, then JB's career statistics would support an annual contract of fifteen million dollars per year (or slightly above his current contract's annual average, so we are getting a small discount).  Last year, his 2.9 WAR was worth approximately twenty three million dollars, which is impressive and well above his projected salaries for the next three years.

So, taking into consideration his age and "regression to the mean", do you think JB will produce MORE or LESS then his career averages, and why?