More or Less? (Part Four)

If you read the first three installments of this series, I mentioned my preoccupation with the game show "The Price is Right" and how a couple of the games reminded me of the Mets roster and their chances in 2018. 

For example, do you remember the game “Now or Then” where the contestants had to guess if a random grocery item’s displayed price was current or from the past?   Or, the game “More or Less” where the players were shown an item and a corresponding price that may or may not be correct.  The player had to guess if the displayed price was more or less then the real price that was concealed behind the visible price.  These two games gave me an idea for a series of articles about our favorite team as we clear the holidays and head towards Spring Training.

The overall roster is largely complete, whether we like it or not.  It also contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster.  In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins or fails to do so.  I will select a different player for each article and it will include their “career” statistical average(s).  

Once we have an average performance documented, we will play “more or less” using their career baseline as the "displayed price" (keep in mind that some players have more statistical data then others, so in cases where the major league data is lacking, I may use their minor league numbers to produce a baseline).  In short, if our key players mostly produce “more” then expected, it will likely manifest itself into a successful season and possibly a return to the playoffs.

The first three articles covered Yoenis Cespedes (voted MORE), Jacob DeGrom (voted MORE) and Michael Conforto (voted LESS).

The fourth player we will look at is arguably our most talented pitcher, when healthy;  Noah Syndergaard (aka THOR).

In addition to a really cool nickname, Thor has a ton of potential that was on full display for the better part of the 2015 season and pretty much throughout the entire 2016 season. However, due to a variety of reasons, to include an ill advised off season workout regimen, he tore a "lat muscle" early in the 2017 season and was basically a "no show" for the rest of the year. 

So far, Thor has been on the Mets' roster for parts of three seasons (2015, 2016 and 2017), appearing in 62 games (61 starts) which encompassed 364 innings pitched.  His statistical output is the equivalent of two full seasons, if you use the "thirty start benchmark" as a full season these days.  

In other words, due to his rookie status in 2015 and his injury issues in 2017, he has been available for roughly 67% of his possible starts over the three year window.  IF he is going to be our "ace" and surpass Jacob DeGrom in the rotation, that number needs to be higher.  

Fortunately, it sounds like Thor is working very hard this off season to correct some of the issues that affected his performance last year and to change his body and workout regimen (he is a pitcher, not a middle linebacker after all).

If we use his career statistics and treat them like two full seasons, you get the following statistics;

30.50 Starts - 182.00 IP

12.00 Wins and 9.00 Losses

2.89 ERA - 1.09 WHIP

209 K (10.30 K/9 IP)

41 BB (5.43 K/BB)

4.65 WAR

***It is a small sample size, but it works for this exercise.

Much like the statistical averages of Jacob DeGrom mentioned in a previous installment of this series, Thor's early career numbers are fantastic and worthy of

Cy Young consideration.  However, much like the rest of the Mets' foundation players, the key for Thor is to STAY HEALTHY and make at least thirty starts in 2018.   

I am cautiously optimistic that this will be the case with better overall management and a much better sports science program in place.

So, do you think Thor produces more or less then the listed offensive statistics and why?