Reese Kaplan -- Frazier vs. Moustakas

Coke vs. Pepsi.  Ford vs. Chevy.  iPhone vs. Android.  There are many great debates in the world with both rational and irrational arguments attached to both sides.  The same now appears to hold true with regard to the top two free agent third baseman who on January 24^th still find themselves unemployed.  You’d think after the seasons they both put together that Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas would have long lines of suitors but the value of the home run has degraded so much that many teams are not willing to spend like they once did.  Why, it’s almost as if they got together and decided as a group…no, we won’t go there.

When the free agency season loomed ahead of us pretty much everyone assumed Mike Moustakas was a crown jewel.  After all, he is just 29 years old, coming off his best season in which he clubbed 38 HRs and drove in 85, he batter a respectable .272 and for a guy showing premium power he fanned only 94 times.  That had some folks thinking he might be baseball’s next 9-figure long term deal. 

Todd Frazier seemed to change back in 2015 when he surprised most of baseball by winning the annual Home Run Derby.  Prior to that season his HR high was 29 – respectable but not in the upper echelons of the game.  In 2015 he hit 35, then after being traded as part of a three team deal between the Reds, Dodgers and White Sox delivered his new AL team 40 HRs and 98 RBIs.  He failed to hold onto his Home Run Derby crown, losing to Giancarlo somebody 20-13 in the final round. 

Frazier was traded to the Yankees in July of last year as part of a 7 player deal that saw David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle go the Bronx as well in exchange for top prospect Blake Rutherford, veteran reliever Tyler Clippard, highly regarded lefty prospect Ian Clarkin and speedster prospect Tito Polo.  He performed well for the Yankees, providing them with 11 HRs and 32 RBIs in the latter half of the year for a total of 27 and 76 respectively on the 2017 season.  He picked a bad time to have what for him is a down year going into free agency.  For that reason many felt he would be less expensive than Moustakas for teams seeking a power hitter for the hot corner.

However, as the 2018 Cold Stove Season has trudged along, a great many free agents are finding that the big dollars they’d hoped to secure simply aren’t being offered.  Many teams are seemingly taking a page out of Sandy Alderson’s book and waiting for the market to come to them…again, almost as if they agreed this was the plan all along.

In a weird way Frazier has seemingly leapfrogged Moustakas in the minds of many based upon tangible and intangible reasons.  First of all, he’s a superior fielder.  There’s no disputing that.  Despite his recent struggles the past few years to stay north of the Mendoza line, like Curtis Granderson, Frazier has morphed into a very selective hitter who, when he doesn’t strike out is likely to land on base via the walk (83 of them last year).  Consequently his OBP numbers are respectable.  He doesn’t steal bases anymore and going into his age 32 season that’s not likely to change.  However, that combination of defense, OBP and power has made him into a player who last season was good for a 3.4 WAR.

Moustakas has had times when he looked adept with the glove but that’s trended downward to the point he was in Wilmer Flores territory a year ago with a -8 DRS.  He’s had some injuries during his career which resulted in him missing nearly all of the 2016 season and pieces of some others.   The burly Moustakas is not blessed with any foot speed but he is very good at making contact, only once in his 7 year career having struck out more than 100 times.  On the flip side, however, his season high in walks has only been 43 during 2015.  His home run power was evident in a pair of 20+ seasons in 2015 and 2012, but it has some wondering if his 38 last year was an outlier or a new launch-angle benefit a’la Daniel Murphy.  He finished with a 1.8 WAR despite having more HRs, RBIs and a higher batting average than Frazier. 

If OPS is more your cup of tea, Frazier has exceeded .800 twice in his 7 year career during his 2012 and 2015 seasons.  The more encouraging signs come from Moustakas who has done so each of the past three years with, not surprisingly, his best showing coming in 2017. 

In batting average Frazier has been trending downward for a career mark of .245 but his last two seasons have been just .225 and then .213.  Moustakas has a similar career mark of .251, but if you throw out his injury plagued 2016, his last two full seasons he delivered .284 and .272 respectively. 

In terms of clubhouse presence, the edge probably goes to Frazier.  He also has that thing about having proven he can play on the big stage of New York (not that Chicago is exactly chopped liver).  Moustakas had his ups and downs with the fans in Kansas City, but you can get a feel for his personality in the letter he wrote to the fans.

So which is it?  Who is the better fit for the Mets? 

If you want pure hitting, then Moustakas is probably the guy.  His offensive trends are positive and he brings a high contact bat into the lineup, something the team has been lacking for a long time. 

If you want the better all-around player, then the 2-year older Toms River, NJ native Todd Frazier is your choice.  He may strike out a lot and struggle to get to a replacement level player’s batting average, but his fielding and his track record under intense media scrutiny is undeniable.

Of course, a GM who has historically not cared a whit about defense might feel he could get similar offensive production for ¼ the cost by playing Wilmer Flores rather than handing out a contract to Moustakas, but he’s also the same GM who inked Curtis Granderson for what he thought he could provide.  On that basis alone I think the likelihood is far greater that the Mets would court Frazier rather than Moustakas.  And frankly, I think they’d be wrong to do so.