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1/24/18

Reese Kaplan -- Frazier vs. Moustakas


Coke vs. Pepsi.  Ford vs. Chevy.  iPhone vs. Android.  There are many great debates in the world with both rational and irrational arguments attached to both sides.  The same now appears to hold true with regard to the top two free agent third baseman who on January 24th still find themselves unemployed.  You’d think after the seasons they both put together that Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas would have long lines of suitors but the value of the home run has degraded so much that many teams are not willing to spend like they once did.  Why, it’s almost as if they got together and decided as a group…no, we won’t go there.


When the free agency season loomed ahead of us pretty much everyone assumed Mike Moustakas was a crown jewel.  After all, he is just 29 years old, coming off his best season in which he clubbed 38 HRs and drove in 85, he batter a respectable .272 and for a guy showing premium power he fanned only 94 times.  That had some folks thinking he might be baseball’s next 9-figure long term deal. 


Todd Frazier seemed to change back in 2015 when he surprised most of baseball by winning the annual Home Run Derby.  Prior to that season his HR high was 29 – respectable but not in the upper echelons of the game.  In 2015 he hit 35, then after being traded as part of a three team deal between the Reds, Dodgers and White Sox delivered his new AL team 40 HRs and 98 RBIs.  He failed to hold onto his Home Run Derby crown, losing to Giancarlo somebody 20-13 in the final round. 

Frazier was traded to the Yankees in July of last year as part of a 7 player deal that saw David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle go the Bronx as well in exchange for top prospect Blake Rutherford, veteran reliever Tyler Clippard, highly regarded lefty prospect Ian Clarkin and speedster prospect Tito Polo.  He performed well for the Yankees, providing them with 11 HRs and 32 RBIs in the latter half of the year for a total of 27 and 76 respectively on the 2017 season.  He picked a bad time to have what for him is a down year going into free agency.  For that reason many felt he would be less expensive than Moustakas for teams seeking a power hitter for the hot corner.

However, as the 2018 Cold Stove Season has trudged along, a great many free agents are finding that the big dollars they’d hoped to secure simply aren’t being offered.  Many teams are seemingly taking a page out of Sandy Alderson’s book and waiting for the market to come to them…again, almost as if they agreed this was the plan all along.

In a weird way Frazier has seemingly leapfrogged Moustakas in the minds of many based upon tangible and intangible reasons.  First of all, he’s a superior fielder.  There’s no disputing that.  Despite his recent struggles the past few years to stay north of the Mendoza line, like Curtis Granderson, Frazier has morphed into a very selective hitter who, when he doesn’t strike out is likely to land on base via the walk (83 of them last year).  Consequently his OBP numbers are respectable.  He doesn’t steal bases anymore and going into his age 32 season that’s not likely to change.  However, that combination of defense, OBP and power has made him into a player who last season was good for a 3.4 WAR.

Moustakas has had times when he looked adept with the glove but that’s trended downward to the point he was in Wilmer Flores territory a year ago with a -8 DRS.  He’s had some injuries during his career which resulted in him missing nearly all of the 2016 season and pieces of some others.   The burly Moustakas is not blessed with any foot speed but he is very good at making contact, only once in his 7 year career having struck out more than 100 times.  On the flip side, however, his season high in walks has only been 43 during 2015.  His home run power was evident in a pair of 20+ seasons in 2015 and 2012, but it has some wondering if his 38 last year was an outlier or a new launch-angle benefit a’la Daniel Murphy.  He finished with a 1.8 WAR despite having more HRs, RBIs and a higher batting average than Frazier. 

If OPS is more your cup of tea, Frazier has exceeded .800 twice in his 7 year career during his 2012 and 2015 seasons.  The more encouraging signs come from Moustakas who has done so each of the past three years with, not surprisingly, his best showing coming in 2017. 

In batting average Frazier has been trending downward for a career mark of .245 but his last two seasons have been just .225 and then .213.  Moustakas has a similar career mark of .251, but if you throw out his injury plagued 2016, his last two full seasons he delivered .284 and .272 respectively. 

In terms of clubhouse presence, the edge probably goes to Frazier.  He also has that thing about having proven he can play on the big stage of New York (not that Chicago is exactly chopped liver).  Moustakas had his ups and downs with the fans in Kansas City, but you can get a feel for his personality in the letter he wrote to the fans.

So which is it?  Who is the better fit for the Mets? 

If you want pure hitting, then Moustakas is probably the guy.  His offensive trends are positive and he brings a high contact bat into the lineup, something the team has been lacking for a long time. 

If you want the better all-around player, then the 2-year older Toms River, NJ native Todd Frazier is your choice.  He may strike out a lot and struggle to get to a replacement level player’s batting average, but his fielding and his track record under intense media scrutiny is undeniable.

Of course, a GM who has historically not cared a whit about defense might feel he could get similar offensive production for ¼ the cost by playing Wilmer Flores rather than handing out a contract to Moustakas, but he’s also the same GM who inked Curtis Granderson for what he thought he could provide.  On that basis alone I think the likelihood is far greater that the Mets would court Frazier rather than Moustakas.  And frankly, I think they’d be wrong to do so.  

24 comments:

  1. I vote for chocolate mousse, but would not be upset if we signed Joe Frazier's grandson here instead.

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  2. Telling it like it is. I am down with Frazier, Down with Frazier, Down with Frazier...

    He is a 5 tool guy

    1) great defense
    2) high OBP
    3) hometown guy
    4) steal him from the Skanks
    5) can handle the bright lights and media of NYC

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    Replies
    1. 6) great clubhouse guy
      7) more consistent than Mouse
      8) probably a cheaper contract

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  3. That still doesn't create great D at 2B, or give us a leadoff hitter who can set the table for the RBI guys.

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    Replies
    1. I agree, try and trade Cabrera for whatever you can and sign Reyes. I don’t see where they can get speed anywhere else, they missed the boat in Dee Gordon.

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    2. Not going to happen .. Cabrera has almost no value on the open market .. couldn’t even trade him last season

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    3. Cabrera is way better than Reyes and Conforto can lead off again with his great obp.

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    4. We don't even know when 4to will be back, but when he does he should be in an RBI spot, not table setting.

      While he's out, our CFers could lead off, but they'll be on the bench afterwards.

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  4. But Zozo, how do you really feel :)

    Agree with your 5 "tools"

    Mets more likely to go for him unless Moose asking price REALLY drops - which it might

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  5. Clint Fraizer ?!? Brendan Fraizer ? Electric razor ? Sign me up

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  6. Pure hitting Moose is better? What? Frazier's career wRC+ is ten points higher and his defense is better. Here's a good breakdown.

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  7. Good stuff from mlbtr on Moose vs Frazier https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/free-agent-face-off-mike-moustakas-vs-todd-frazier.html

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  8. Remember... We have a ton (Cabrera,Wright) already invested on this position.

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    Replies
    1. Do you, or anyone else here, have an update on TJ and when he's expected back?

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  9. A key point between these two players that is being heavily under-reported everyone is the penalties that come with signing a Qualifying Offer player like Moustakas.

    Because he was offered the QO......if a team signs him....the following penalties occur.

    A) If a team exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season, it will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million! from its international bonus pool for the 2018-2019 signing period.

    Affects: Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Yankees


    B) IF a team receives revenue sharing, it will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft.

    Affects: A's, Astros, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Twins.


    C) If a team neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor received revenue sharing, will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period.

    Affects: Angels, Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, **Mets**, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox

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  10. So for the Mets signing Moustakas would cost

    A) Approximately $40-$50M
    B) The #45 overall draft pick (at this current point in time)
    C) $500k of IFA bonus money (~12% of the bonus pool)

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  11. As they say in Brooklyn, FUGGETABOUTIT!

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  12. @Bill Metsiac

    Last I heard he is still in the physical therapy stage of his recovery. I would not expect him to throw a baseball until April at the earliest. The general Tommy John recovery time frame for hitters is 8-9 months which would put his return somewhere between Late June - Early July.

    I would not expect to see him until after the All-Star break if he is even needed.

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  13. Chris, losing the draft pick and the IFA $$ to sign Moustakas really hurts him when considering whether to go with him or Frazier. In light of that, I'd prefer Frazier.

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  14. I want a true high OBP hitter in the lineup, preferably leading off. Neither Frazier nor Moustakas fit this bill. If you want Moustakas' hitting and can tolerate his fielding then just play Flores. If you want strong defense (which is something the current regime never cared about), then make a play for someone like J.J. Hardy as a stopgap. If you want another all-or-nothing hitter in the mold of Granderson or Duda, then Frazier's your man.

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  15. Even without the loss of the draft pick and the IFA$$$ I prefer Frazier over Moose, and I have from the start of the off season. I wish we could include Cabrera in a package for Harrison, so we would have top quality at both 2B and 3B, and a guy who could lead off too, but I realize I am smoking some pretty potent stuff to even remotely consider that.

    Frazier wants to stay in NY. The Yankees would like him, but only on a 1 year deal, because they are going to make a big play for Machado next year. If Alderson offered Frazier 3 years/$30 million, with $8 mil payable in '18, you would see Todd in a Mets jersey at a Citifield press conference the next day.

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  16. Amazingly enough, I actually agree totally with Reese here, except for his Flores fixation.

    Why can't we find an AL GM who agrees with Reese about Wilmer's bat?

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  17. Thanks, Chris, for the TJ update. 👍Looks like he's more a topic for '19 than this season.

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  18. My concerns with signing veteran players are first that players' over thirty year old age, declining performance statistics, and then the money they are asking having virtually no correlation to the player that they are today. Fans get caught up with name value I think, and teams sign veteran players based upon a history not always able to be reproduced going forward. They are a totally different athlete now despite the salary demands.

    Red Sox

    Four Red Sox players that "might be attainable here" that I like a lot...LHSP Jalen Beeks AAA Red Sox. Jalen could be ready for bigs this ST, has a nice assortment of pitches, a 91-93 mph fastball which tops out at 95 mph and is 24 years old. Did I mention that he is a lefty starter? Beeks is not the top rated Red Sox lefty starter, Jay Groome is. However, Jay is 19 years old and is still a season away at least. Jay has more development to achieve first. And then finally, I still like 25 year old catcher Blake Swihart. In a Plawecki platoon (to keep both healhier all season long) Swihart may be a better performer than others already here. I could see this catcher combo (Kevin and Blake) tallying easily a combined 30 homeruns in 2018. I love this type of shake and roll.

    Reasoning

    The Red Sox have a plethora of good young starters on their horizon. Maybe Jalen Beeks could be plucked away for here with the right hook and bait package. There is very stiff rotation competition issues in Boston. If not Jalen then what about Groome? Michael Chavis is somewhat buried (Rafael Devers) in Beantown currently, and Blake Swihart is still only like 25 years old and ready now. Henry Owens is the fourth Red Sox that I like for here. Henry needs to redo his mechanics some, gain cpitch command, and come more over the top and lose his lower almost side-armed delivery which hurts him. He is a project lefty starter I understand, but I like this bet a lot too. He's young and he has nothing but upside.

    What might Boston need?

    A proven left-handed starter with top-end capability just in case Price is again unready to go all season in 2018. A young power hitting first baseman. Another catcher with HR potential. Maybe a proven reliever more.

    I don't want to name NYM players that would fit nicely into such a trade package idea. But you should be able to figure some of them out yourself.

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