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2/12/18

Mike Friere - Maybe It's Just Me?

As the title of this article says, “maybe it’s just me”.  

It was the immediate mental follow up to my initial reaction of absolute “shock” after reading that the Cubs committed 126 million dollars over six years to starting pitcher Yu Darvish (with the possibility that it could reach 150 million dollars if certain clauses are met).   Now, don’t completely misunderstand what I am saying.   I think Darvish is a fine pitcher and he would likely start for any other team’s rotation in 2018 and beyond.  My “shock” had more to do with the dollar amount that the Cubs are investing in a pitcher who may very well have started his inevitable decline.   

I think Tom and I share a similar view on long term, nine figure contracts.   Some would refer to them as “second generation” contracts in that you are paying a player as much for what they have done as you are for what they are likely to do for you.  In a perfect world, the player exceeds the contract and the team is successful (which is rare).  In a “that’s nice” sort of world, the player comes close to returning equal value on the field, when compared to what the team is paying for their services (a bit more common, but not likely).   Lastly, the player simply does not live up to the contract, despite the fact that they may provide a “decent" level of value and/or performance on the field (the most common outcome).

The Mets have first hand experience with “second generation” contracts, most recently with David Wright.  Granted, his decline or outright absence had as much to do with an unfortunate medical condition as anything, but you have to wonder if he would have lived up to the contract if he had been able to play on a daily basis.   Alas, we will never know, but I feel confident that the odds were against that happening.

Pivoting back to Darvish for a moment, he is a 31 year old starting pitcher who will turn 32 in August of this year.  So, in short, the Cubs are paying him an average of 21 million dollars to pitch from his age 31/32 season to his age 36/37 season!

Statistically, he has been pitching in MLB since the 2012 season, which is six seasons when you count last year in the equation.  He has made a total of 131 starts over that time, which is roughly 4.37 seasons worth if you use thirty starts as the benchmark for a “full season”.  The other 1.64 seasons worth of starts were lost to injuries, to include parts of the 2014 season, ALL of the 2015 season and parts of the 2016 season (not counting the mileage on his arm from his time in Japan, before he came to America).

VD (not the best use of initials, I will confess) has an impressive statistical "season average" for the time that he has been on the field;

190 IP
12.8 Wins - 9.63 Losses
1.18 WHIP
11.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9
4.45 WAR

So, what’s the issue, right?   Well, look at his 2017 season (split between the AL and NL), compared to his “averages” and you should start to see a bit of a decline;

186 IP
10 Wins - 12 Losses
1.17 WHIP
10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9
3.8 WAR

Still respectable, I will admit, but not quite as good as his past and he is now a year older heading into 2018.  Oh and he had an ABYSMAL World Series for the Dodgers, which is troubling and perhaps it is clouding my judgement a bit.

In short, I think VD is an above average starter, but he is a HUGE risk for the money and the length of the contract that he just secured from the Cubs.  I could be completely wrong here, but I would wager that he will not justify the money that he is going to make over the next six years.  Better them, then us…..or perhaps it is just me?

How so you feel about this contract and does it scare you a bit when your thoughts turn to locking up Jacob DeGrom in the near future?






15 comments:

  1. NO on super-long contracts with pitchers.

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  2. I'd be inclined to go longer on Syndergaard than deGrom due to age, but if I had to pick one for the future I'd go the other way as Syndergaard (after showing he's healthy) would net you more in trade.

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  3. I agree with you But this is why I am all in about signing Guys like machado or Harper next year... they will be 26...They will be in their prime and calling them studs is so underrated... I rather Over pay on the thoroughbred than pay anything on mediocre...

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    1. Eddie, 10/350 with an opt-out. Are you in?

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  4. When I heard that contract, my first reaction was similar to seeing a missed call followed by a bad or “ticky-tack” call in a basketball game: That it’s a makeup for a mistake.

    This contract will now shut up the media on the free agent freeze and I can’t help but wonder if there weren’t smiles in New York City over it. How can there not be?

    Granted, it wasn’t the $26MM that Darvish was targeted for or was his preference, but it’s still a nice haul.

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  5. Mets rotation -

    DeGrom: 7 year removed from TJS and 1.5 year removed from another elbow surgery

    Thor: coming off a season-ruining lat tear

    Harvey: TJS, TOS,

    Matz: coming off elbow surgery

    Wheeler: taking osteoporosis meds

    Lugo: torn ucl

    Gsellman: bad hamstring

    Montero: sucks

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  6. Sandy Alderson treats pitching like he does defense as if it's a necessary evil.

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  7. It's true, baseball's system is the wrong way round - they underpay the young stars who are under control, and then get punished for it by paying ridiculous contracts for them when they age. Clearly clubs are wising up to this now and as long as you draft well you can stay clear. I imagine the system will be tweaked soon....

    I think Sandy is taking the right approach with JdG. Assuming that Jacob's agent is asking for big long-term money.

    But Mike, one thing I don't understand. Who's VD? Do you mean YD?

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  8. Yes! Weird, huh? Not sure where my mind went!?

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  9. Well, it seems to take "breaks" more often then it used to..........

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  10. The contract might be slightly out of line with contracts doled out in this offseason, but it certainly is not with recent history. Price, Cueto,Lester, Grienke, Verlander, Scherzer, Strasburg, Hamels, Zimmerman.... It is actually far less than mlbtraderumors projection of 160mm.

    Also important, which was not discussed, is where the Cubs are on the win curve. Risking a deadweight contract after 4 years while in the window of contention is a wise decision. if the Mets were willing to go beyond 4 years on a contract, Darvish would have been an excellent signing.

    I would gladly have skipped Bruce and eliminate the Ramos trade if we could instead have Darvish for comparable AAV

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  11. Ugh.....imagine that!

    @Anonymous.....good point on the "win curve" or window of opportunity. It makes sense on that level, but I still think that contract will be an albatross before all is said and done.

    It would be worth a WS or two, however.

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  12. The Yu Darvish #s deterioration looks similar to Johan Santana's #s the year before the Mets signed him - and that contract was an albatross, even if it was good the first few seasons.

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