Jon Heyman is reporting that the Mets have signed lefty Jason Vargas to a two-year deal worth approximately $15 million.
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Let's hope Vargas is worth it. What do you think, Mack?
ReplyDeleteMy guess is this means that Zach may be headed to the pen.
One more arm trying to make the club now won't. But last year, Mets used 28 pitchers, so even if that number this year is 22, a lot of guys will still get a chance along the way.
Who get bump from the roster?
ReplyDeleteSo 7.5 Million a year for a guy who may hinder one of our guys from having a chance...
ReplyDeleteVargas vs Seeing if Lugo or Gsellman were viable 4th or 5th options...
Wheeler goes to the Pen (which may have been the right move anyway) but now how is he feeling motivated to win a job?
Worse is 7.5 million here, 8.5 Million there (cabrera), 13 Million there Bruce, 9 million (Fraizer)
throw all that away and get me a stud... I am sure we didn't just have a boost in ticket sales over any of those signings...
Tom -
ReplyDeleteFirst, I don't like it. It's a step backwards.
Second, we already have enough guys that can generate these kind of numbers.
Third, the 2018 salaries are now the same or higher than 2017. Stop drinking the Sandy bullshit.
Fourth, maybe velocities were down with the other pitchers. Remember... what you see when you see 3 or 4 Mets pitchers on the bullpen bumps next the the clubhose are guys NOT throwing at their max speeds. They are nowhere ready to throw that way, but maybe the Mets pitching coaches are now sharing the same thoughts as our new manager is telling the press
I had written an article for tomorrow in which I was examining the starting pitching options. I updated it with a comment about Vargas being signed, but he was not my first choice among the non-QO alternatives.
ReplyDeleteIve never liked blocking young guys from positions. I didnt really like the Bruce move as conforto really isnt a cf. However, Vargas at 8 mm per year to be the swing guy and give some downside risk protection, is not bad.
ReplyDeleteI'd say this is throwing good money ahead of a problem. It's akin to seeing a loose board on your deck and deciding that you should replace the board just in case there is something wrong even though its probably fine.
Like frazier, he's not expensive thereby tradable, platoonable, if you have to sit him, he's a guy who isnt going to complain about any of it.
Interesting: "Vargas has past and present connections to the Mets after playing for them in 2007 and for new pitching coach Dave Eiland in Kansas City." Eiland thus had to endorse this strongly.
ReplyDeleteCould Vargas help?
ReplyDeleteMaybe.
Do the Mets get 1st half of 2017 Vargas or 2nd half?
Why not just go for Cobb or Lynn?
It's all about the Benjamins...and the draft picks...and the international pool money. There's no way they were going after Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta. The question is whether or not this money was well spent, whether he was the best of the second tier options (and the corollary, who's going to be the other lefty in the pen -- Steve Matz?)
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm wrong here...
ReplyDeleteMathew Brownstein -
@MBrownstein89
In 2017 only 4 left-handed pitchers posted the following stats:
▪️ERA+ of 105 or better
▪️175 or more IP
▪️WAR of 3.5 or better
▪️Win Probability Added of 1.0 or better
Chris Sale. Clayton Kershaw. Gio Gonzalez.
& Jason Vargas.
I like it. If it works out, look for either Wheeler or Harvey to go to the minors. This could give us another year of control if either of them does not accrue approximately 80 major league days for wheeler or 100 for Harvey. Imagine Boras' reaction. If Vargas gets beaten out by these guys, we might just have our LOOGY.
ReplyDeleteHarvey is a free agent either way so it doesn't matter about minors options or anything of that nature or time accrued
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is that a player needs 6 full seasons for free agency. Harvey has 5.072 per BR. OR, 5 years and 72 days. If a player reaches 172 days it counts as a full year. If Harvey spends 99 days in the Majors, he will be one day short of 6 seasons. See https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/ for reference.
ReplyDeleteMy understanding per https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/ , differs. BR has Harvey at 5 years 72 days. You earn a year by playing 172 days. Therefore, if he spends 99 days in the majors he will be one day short of 6 full seasons. He will be at 5.171. This will result in playing another year before free agency.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the union would sue.
DeleteLet's take a step back for a minute. Vargas made 32 starts last year, with a decent ERA and a WHIP a little higher than league average, but more than good enough for a back-end starter. He's getting out of the American League and going to a team with two hard-throwing aces at the top of the rotation and a much-improved infield defense, which is important a guy who doesn't strike out a lot of batters. He will hopefully be a durable SP3 that is uniquely situated to take advantage of his new surroundings, and this contract is *very* reasonable.
ReplyDeleteAs for the "blocking" theory - we may all be over-valuing the previous SP3 through SP9 options here. Harvey is very likely shot, Matz and Wheeler may not make 32 starts between them, and the rest are fringe major leaguers (Gsellman, Lugo, Montero) or young guys who should be spending 2018 in Triple-A (Oswalt, Flexen). There's not a single pitcher in that group I'd bet a dollar on saying they will outperform Jason Vargas - far more of an indictment of their collective lack of talent/injury risk than an endorsement of Vargas.
Jack, I mostly agree with you - except I think we see an SP3 quality out of Harvey this year. That is a risky call, but I am assuming far better health for him than last year, and closer to his 2015 form.
ReplyDeleteThey needed a Vargas if we are to contend - too many guys sputtered last year due to injury to just hope all of the starting 5 would be stellar, or that Gsellman or Lugo would give them a quality SP5 when both seem to me more like an SP6 or SP7. Vargas makes their rotation more reliable. We've certainly had far worse SP5's.
I would be much happier with Vargas being an SP4 than an SP3
ReplyDeleteAm I the only person who thinks Seth Lugo is a good major league starting pitcher?
ReplyDeleteI like this move a lot. Wheeler, Harvey, Matz, Lugo all sound good but when's the last time we got 100 innings out of any of them. I think Harvey is going to bounce back and be a solid #3. Slot Vargas in at # 4, and let the others earn their spot in the rotation. Outside of DeGrom there are no 200 inning pedigrees with these guys. This is another low risk option. I would rather have Bruce, Swarzek, Frazier, Vargas, Reyes than spend it all on Darvish or Martinez for a crazy number of years. Plus, Matz is the only lefty. How letting Matz and Wheeler pitch on the same day and hope we get 8 innings out for them?
ReplyDeleteSo jack, Jacob and Jeff all agree with me that that harvey and the lower portion of the rotation were in dire need of help via acquiring a dickey or a vargas, due to their poor long-term stats and performances, the glib 3-days of spring notwithstanding.
ReplyDeleteThe more I digest this move, the more I like it on multiple fronts.
ReplyDeleteThe baseball paradigm says you can never have enough pitching. We can nitpick this and that, but I just don;t agree. We have all knocked them, much of it well-earned, but winning teams deepen the talent pool, and this is what they did.
Wheeler is rocked, and that is fine. I would be too. The bottom line is, while the Mets have numbers and upside, it is just too risky to depend on so many guys that have had consistent injury issues. The situation will sort itself out. My hope is that we see the best of Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler.
Vargas is no ace but he is a true pro who knows how to pitch. His 2017 second half is a little worrying, but he likely hit the wall after TJ rehabbing and major innings with little down time for two years. He is a great fit on a staff of fireballers. Yup, win or lose, this deal is the hallmark of a contender. I like it.
Jacob -
ReplyDeleteIt does not matter what you and I think.
Only the coaches opinions do.
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ReplyDeleteCan we circle back to Viper's question, which went unanswered? Who do you think will be dropped from the 40-man to add room for Vargas? If I had to guess, I'd say either Montero or Cecchini gets DFAd, but there are reasons why both may be kept. Although TC did not seem willing to give Cecchini a shot, he's still a Sandy number one pick and as such, hard to let go, ego-wise. Montero was finally beginning to show something occasionally last season and the prospect of him being "held accountable," in Calloway-speak, seemed intriguing. Please weigh in guys. Viper deserves an answer.
ReplyDeleteDave/Viper -
ReplyDeleteI don't see, with the addition of Vargas, and the supposed good health of Thor, Harvey, Matz, Lugo, Gsellman, Wheeler, any reason to keep Montero at all, no less the 40-man.
That'd be my choice, too, Mack. We'll see what they actually do soon enough.
ReplyDelete