Tom Brennan - A FORK IN THE ROAD IN 2017
The old pun is "When you reach a fork in the road....take it."
When I reach a fork in the road, I'm looking for a good meal to use the fork on. I am normally a lefty - but with a fork? Ambidextrous....and prolific.
In 2017, the Mets, ignoring our screams of warning to not drive there, headed down the fork called "Injury Road."
That road finished 27 games behind the Division winners.
They had a slew of injuries, but if they'd instead gone down "Healthy Lane", what would the season have looked like?
Let's focus on the impact of 5 of the walking wounded:
LOSING THOR, HARVEY, AND MATZ:
Think of the collective impact of losing Thor for 5 months.
His replacements were poor...replace a potential Cy Young candidate with pitching dregs? I think that cost them 10 wins.
Matz had his early forearm injury, and later his ulnar injury that ultimately derailed his season. Had he not had the ulnar injury and Thor were healthy, Metz would have been a solid SP 3, and Harvey could have been coddled more, used less, and not been as abysmal as he was.
LOSING FAMILIA:
A healthy Familia in 2015 and 2016 saved 94 games! But 2017 was virtually a total Familia wasteland. Add a healthy Familia to the 2017 pen and cut the use of other, marginal pen arms, and how much better would the pen have been? Lots better.
Conservatively, the above pitchers' collective poor 2017 health cost the team 15 wins.
LOSING CESPEDES:
He made foolish weight training decisions for a baseball player. The Mets then foolishly panicked and rushed him back with a strained hammy in April against the Nats, with disastrous consequences for his hammy and for his 2017 season.
The outfield did fairly well without him in 2017, but a healthy Cespedes clearly would have made a tough Mets lineup be a downright dangerous one. Clearly, his loss for much of 2017 cost them wins.
The impact of losing those 5, and others like Neil Walker for several weeks, was that the Mets fell out of the race, and impelled them to firesale Bruce, Duda, Walker, Grandy, and Addison Reed. With what result? The fire sale led them to lose LOTS of games in August and September.
I believe that if this team were above average healthy in 2017, rather than the worst-impacted team in baseball, and had instead chosen to drive down Healthy Lane, they might have been good enough to win the division.
But that is all history and "what if" speculation.
I am good at what-if's. Just ask Mack!
But ahoy, mates, 2018 looms ahead.
This early in spring training, it is too soon to tell, so all we can hope for is a lengthy 2018 road trip down Healthy Lane. Because if we can avoid Injury Road, and in 2018 have a restored and dangerous pitching staff and an offense that could produce better than the team's decent offensive output of 2017, this team could be really good. Really good.
Perfect? No. Really good? Yes.
Take the correct fork, boys...and we'll join you on Happy Lane. I'll volunteer to drive.
POST SCRIPT:
FIRST SPRING TRAINING GAME TODAY!
PLAY BALL!!
Congrats to Jake deGrom and his wife on the birth of their daughter.
ReplyDeleteDitto to Jake and his wife. Tom good post and I agree and LOVE being in the underdog roll coming into the season. With EVERYTHING that went wrong last year it's not a stretch to think we should be in at least the WC hunt. We really only need one other strong starter to add to Noah, Jake and Jason to be pretty competitive this year and I'm hoping it's Matz as I feel he could be a #1 or #2 starter if he's healthy but what else is new. So that and 140 plus games from YC along with the addition of Frazier and Vargas and return of Bruce and I have to give credit to Sandy for a job well done so now it's up to the players. First game today so LETS GO METS!!!
ReplyDeleteGary, I have another article focused on baseball injury this coming Tuesday which I think you will find interesting.
ReplyDeleteThat said, just as one positive thinking example, if Cespedes stays healthy and has trained more intelligently, and realized golf and baseball health during the season don't mix, and worked hard on eliminating hitting zone weaknesses this off season, could he hit 50 this year in 150 games? Why not? He had a .520 (I believe) slug % last year playing injured - why not .600+ this year? Etc.
Mack says I'm the Debbie Downer here, but a little reality. Cespedes has been in the majors since 2012. He has reached the 30 HR plateau just twice and the 100 RBI plateau also just twice. 30/100 is nothing to sneeze at but I don't think he's got Aaron Judge DNA coursing through his veins.
ReplyDeleteMack is right. 😁
DeleteReese, I think 50 homers for Cespedes is a high bar indeed, but he has hit 65 in 1000 at bats with the Mets, and last year he was impaired all year, so that 65 per 1000 probably understates his skills. If he could get around 600 at bats this season at that pace, he'd hit 40. If he is healthy and gets on a roll, I see no reason he can't hit 40-50. The key for him is keeping the legs healthy. I think the key is to rely on his unusual athleticism, play cautiously (e.g., don't try to leg a double into a possible triple), and stay healthy. And hopefully, he's worked hard to do better on pitches up in the zone than in the past where he over-relied on his raw abilities.
ReplyDeleteOne more point - one example as to how Cespedes has gotten better is his .550 slug % as a Met vs. .473 in his pre-Mets days. Big improvement. And he can do better, IMO.
ReplyDeleteI think if he stays healthy in 2018, he will have a career season.
We read a lot about Yo's poor choice of training regimen, but I've seen zero about his regimen in past years. What was it like in the year he played in close to 160 games?
ReplyDeleteBill, good question - I do not know, but likely it was more normal conditioning.
ReplyDeleteThe question really is: should these guys be working out in the offseason at all, other than perhaps some work on an exercise bike and some very light weights and stretching. I raise that question in a scheduled article on Tuesday.
Good health = 85 to 90 wins, IMO.
ReplyDeleteThe Nats are a bit past that level, unless they have another off tear like 2015.