Q and A - Predictions

Mack asked –

           This is the time of the pre-season where I have normally written a post on my prediction for the Mets, number of wins, final standing in the NL East, and playoff results.

This year, I've turned it into the Q and A question.

What are your thoughts on this?

Eddie Corona says –

            The 2018 Met's, what can we expect. We have 2 Aces on the staff and that alone should be enough to be excited for the season.

We have a MVP caliber player with the potential of 40 plus home runs and over 100 RBI's who has already lead this team to the Playoffs twice. We have a young SS with the upside to take baseball by storm. So why shouldn't we be excited about this team? Well because it’s not very good. The rest of the pitching staff is filled with if's and maybe's. The Best player on the team is coming back from an injury resulted from a swing and miss. There is no leadership in the room and a collection of average players are well, AVERAGE.

The best you can say about this team is they have the Marlins, Phillies  and the Braves in their division except if the Braves No 1 farm system is ready to perform.

So with trying to look at this team through rose color glasses, This team has the same look of last year’s team without the hope for a Rosario and Smith (maybe Alonzo?) on the Horizon.

I see 78-84.

Reese Kaplan says –

            Despite the horrific Spring the New York Mets are mostly healthy (compared to 2017) and should see more production from many of their key players.  As a result, I see a quantum leap forward from the Collins Catastrophe but I do expect some growing pains for Mickey Callaway as well.  He's repeating some of his predecessor's mistakes, such as not giving Jose Reyes reps in the outfield, so there is the potential for weaknesses to be exposed. 

The catching tandem is clearly better than how they started the year with Rene Rivera inexplicably getting way too many ABs.  Adrian Gonzalez is a low cost gamble.  Thus far he's not looked like he has much left in the tank, but he has until Michael Conforto returns to prove what he can do. 

At that time the Mets may decide to play Brandon Nimmo semi regularly and push Jay Bruce to 1B.  Then there's the possibility they could promote Dominic Smith, too. 

Asdrubal Cabrera is what he is.  You have a full year of flashy defense and speed from Amed Rosario.  You have power and defense from Todd Frazier. 

I'm still not fully convinced Matt Harvey, Steve Matz or Zack Wheeler are 100% ready, but with Jason Vargas, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, there is some backup available. 

Anthony Swarzak and the returning bullpen components suggest the middle and late inning firemen are not spraying gasoline.

 My prediction is 84-78 which is a 14 game swing in the right direction, but not enough to take the division and likely not enough to make the playoffs.  Health and a solid season from one of the three unstable starters could push them a little further.  I think that will take 2nd place in the division. 

Mike Friere says –

           Usually around this time of the year, most fans think that their team is going to be better then they usually end up by season’s end.  Overly optimistic, or looking at things through rose colored glasses, perhaps?  After all, everyone is tied for first place on Opening Day.

With that said, I am no different when it come to the Mets.  In addition to my general optimistic outlook on life, I tend to expect good things for my favorites sports teams, prior to the start of their respective season(s).

Instead of trying to guess an exact record, which is tough to do, I try to estimate a general range of wins for all of the teams in MLB.  This range is sort of a “best case to worst case” continuum and it is usually pretty accurate, since lots of things can happen during a 162 game schedule.  

Now the “smart ass” answer would be a range of 0 to 162 wins, so that you have every last contingency covered.  That is not what I am describing here.  Instead, I try to put together a moderate range that normally is anywhere from 5 to 10 games wide, so to speak.   So without further adieu, here is my guess for the NL East (to include our very own Mets);

Washington 95 to 100 wins

New York (N) 80 to 85 wins

Philadelphia  75 to 80 wins

Atlanta   75 to 80 wins

Miami  60 to 65 wins

This doesn’t mean that teams cannot exceed or underachieve the listed totals.  But, it is what I think is most likely.

Second place and an outside shot at a WC spot, is my guess for the Mets.

Mack says –

           Boy, this is a tough one for me this year because I don’t believe that this team will end this season looking like it does when the season starts.

           As a ‘workout artist’, I took over a fair amount of failed businesses and I was given the task of turning them profitable. You can’t do this overnight,  especially when you have problems up and down the halls.

           You also can’t run for Fan of the Year. Some of your decisions will be tough and your employees are not going to invite you to dinner after you make them.

           This team can make it to the playoffs, but only if they recognize they aren’t done here yet.

           We all agree that good health, especially with the rotation, is tantamount to the success of this team. The Fab 5 are all reaching the 6-inning level this week and their pitch counts are close to 90 without an incident. I’m telling you… collectively, they are capable of a 3.00-ERA and 60 wins without blinking.  That being said, I would start the season with Swth Lugo replacing Zack Wheeler in the rotation and I'd let Wheeler try to solve his WHIP problem in the April-May pen.

           I believe the secret to success here is the removal of both the dead wood and the past on this team. I would show Robles, Montero (after his TJS healing), Vargas (yeah, I know, he was just ‘hired’… well, that doesn’t make it the right decision), Lobaton, Gonzalez, Reyes, Kelly, and yes, David Wright the door.

           Then, and only then, would I stand a chance of instilling a new attitude with the ‘kids’ (plus Cabrera) left on the team.

         Look at last night. The bats finally woke up, all from the guys you want on this team. What a perfect time to shake off the hitting rust.

           “My team’ would win the Wild Card, but I’m dreaming. No one on the Mets will do what I would do.

           My prediction:   80-82   2^nd Place   Miss Playoffs