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3/24/18

Reese Kaplan -- Final Roster Predictions



Today’s game with the St. Louis Cardinals will feature some faces who won’t be there come Thursday, March 29th when Opening Day of the 2018 season is a rematch with the Redbirds, but this time it counts.  Yes, it’s true, after a split squad game tomorrow with the Marlins the Mets pack their bags and head to chilly New York for their home opener after three off-days.  So once again let’s take a look at who will have a locker at Citifield.

The Sure Things

For a team that was downright embarrassing at times in 2017, there are actually relatively few roster battles up for grabs.  Let’s have a look at who can sign a lease in New York without worry:

Wilmer Flores
Asdrubal Cabrera
Amed Rosario
Todd Frazier
Travis d’Arnaud
Kevin Plawecki
Jose Reyes
Yoenis Cespedes
Brandon Nimmo
Jay Bruce
Noah Syndergaard
Jacob de Grom
Matt Harvey
Steve Matz
Jeurys Familia
AJ Ramos
Anthony Swarzak
Jerry Blevins

Better Rent Month-to-Month

Adrian Gonzalez
Juan Lagares

Will Gladly Take a Pup Tent in the Parking Lot:

Seth Lugo
Paul Sewald
Jacob Rhame
Robert Gsellman
Phil Evans

Left Out in the Cold:

Rafael Montero (under the knife)
Zack Wheeler
Hansel Robles (got the ax)


My thinking is that if the manager can be believed and they will go north with the pitchers that have actually produced, then Lugo will make the cut and temporarily get Jason Vargas' rotation slot.  He’s worked out of the pen before and has the ability to go multiple innings when the starter gets crushed or the game goes into extra innings.  His performance on Thursday demonstrated that.  Gsellman has not pitched quite well enough to make the front office forget his mouthiness from last year.  Rhame has good reverse platoon splits and with Matt Purke and P.J. Conlon already dispatched to the minor league camp, he’s the closest they have to neutralizing lefties after Blevins.  Montero's injury opens us a 40-man roster spot as he'll be thrust onto the 60-day DL.  Robles is, well, Robles (and since cut after this piece was written).  Even before the injury it's safe to say that the ship has sailed on the former while the latter is rowing furiously to resurrect his future with the team. 

I originally had written that Wheeler is going north and would most likely be in the rotation, but his consistency has not been there and he needs to pitch regularly given his multitude of injuries.  I expect they will exercise an option and have him begin the year as a part of the Las Vegas rotation. One of our regular readers -- Bill Metsiac -- drew a good comparison to Mike Pelfrey ("not in a good way"), a guy with good enough stuff that he could tantalize you into thinking he could be a force, yet those good starts were few and far between (much like the recently disabled Rafael Montero, too).

Of course, Bill doesn't remember that before contributing regularly here, we sounded off on opposite ends of the spectrum regarding Pelfrey, with me advocating they cut the hand licker loose and Bill vociferously defending him.  There's hope for you yet, my friend :)

Adrian Gonzalez and Juan Lagares are oddly joined at the hip by one Michael Conforto.  Once he returns then they need to drop a player to open up the roster spot.  That doesn’t give much time to Adrian Gonzalez to get it into gear lest he become another James Loney lunacy. 

During this first month or so of the season Phil Evans would be my choice to fill in as the emergency do-it-all utility player.  Depending on how he does will signal whether or not Sandy Alderson can become serious about dealing away Juan Lagares to some team in need of a gifted defensive player who is at best league average offensively. 

Now Evans making the team (at least temporarily) is accomplished by having T.J. Rivera already on the 60 day DL and  both Rafael Montero and David Wright likely to join him.  Thus roster spots become available. 

So what’s your take?

14 comments:

  1. Games are not to be discarded as losses. Hence, I would farm out Wheeler and let him get back on track, not blow 2 or 3 games they will regret in Sept. About the time Smith will be running again.

    Evans I would give as much time as possible to prove himself with at bats here and there. I was the only one late last August who thought he had any chance :)

    Robles will return gophers to Vegas, where they currently are extinct.

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  2. A lot depends on the decision to carry 7 or 8 RPs. If the former, we'll have a 5-man bench, meaning a C, 2 IFs and 2 OFers. Barring trades or injuries, I expect those will be Nimmo, Lag, Jose and Wilmer. If 4to starts the season on the DL, or Jose is released (both doubtful) that opens a spot for Evans.

    If the pen is 8 men, then Lag is out. We can't keep only 1 IFer.

    I see a 7-man pen. After the "big 4" at the back, with Wheeler getting one or two starts, my guess is Lugo, Sewald and Rhames, with Gsellman heading west. If Wheeler goes West, Gsellman stays.

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  3. A-Gon determine who stays, IMO.

    My choice is Bruce/Flores 1B, 4-man OF (+Bruce, Jose, Evans on STBY) & 7-man BP at least to start.

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  4. Here's what I think will happen -

    1. Mickey will give in and let Wheeler come north as the SP5 through April. He's re-evaluate past that.

    2. Lugo and Gsellman will join Familia, Ramos, Blevens, and Swarsak in the pen.

    3. The Mets will be signing a new LHRP this week, who was a final cut from another team.

    4. The Mets will carry Nimmo amd Lagares, and will add Conforto around April 15th

    5. Sewald will be the 8th pen pitcher and Evans will once again get screwed.

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  5. Mack, how do you squeeze Nimmo, Lag AND an 8-man pen into a 25-man roster?

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  6. I’d like to see them bring 7 BP arms north, and i’d like one of them to be Greg Holland.

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  7. Mack, I think that even if Evans does not make OD roster, he will get 100-200 PA this season. Cream rises. Rosters should be 26 or 27, due to so many pitchers having to be carried now vs., say, 1969.

    Adam, Holland would be a real top notch move.

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  8. I am pretty sure it wasn't Sid Fernandez! "A man who fell into the space between two buildings in Honolulu on Friday while trying to retrieve lost baseballs with a pole was finally rescued after about three hours"

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  9. Bill -


    SPs (5) - Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler

    RPs (8) - Lugo Gsellman, new guy, Familia, Ramos, Blevens, Swarzak, Sewald

    C (2) - d'Arnald, Plawecki

    IF(6) - Gonzalez, Flores, Rosario, Cabrera, Frazier, Reyes

    OF (4) - Cespedes, Nimmo, Lagares, Bruce

    25

    Did I miss someone?

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  10. 4to? Maybe not OD, but not much later.

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  11. CONforto said in an interview that that's what many of his friends call him.

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  12. Apparently I nailed it with a perfect prediction..if only I'd gone to Vegas and placed a bet. :)

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  13. Careful, don't hurt your arm. 😊

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