Reese Kaplan -- Final Roster Predictions

Today’s game with the St. Louis Cardinals will feature some faces who won’t be there come Thursday, March 29^th when Opening Day of the 2018 season is a rematch with the Redbirds, but this time it counts.  Yes, it’s true, after a split squad game tomorrow with the Marlins the Mets pack their bags and head to chilly New York for their home opener after three off-days.  So once again let’s take a look at who will have a locker at Citifield.

The Sure Things

For a team that was downright embarrassing at times in 2017, there are actually relatively few roster battles up for grabs.  Let’s have a look at who can sign a lease in New York without worry:

Wilmer Flores

Asdrubal Cabrera

Amed Rosario

Todd Frazier

Travis d’Arnaud

Kevin Plawecki

Jose Reyes

Yoenis Cespedes

Brandon Nimmo

Jay Bruce

Noah Syndergaard

Jacob de Grom

Matt Harvey

Steve Matz

Jeurys Familia

AJ Ramos

Anthony Swarzak

Jerry Blevins

Better Rent Month-to-Month

Adrian Gonzalez

Juan Lagares

Will Gladly Take a Pup Tent in the Parking Lot:

Seth Lugo
Paul Sewald

Jacob Rhame
Robert Gsellman

Phil Evans

Left Out in the Cold:

Rafael Montero (under the knife)
Zack Wheeler

Hansel Robles (got the ax)

My thinking is that if the manager can be believed and they will go north with the pitchers that have actually produced, then Lugo will make the cut and temporarily get Jason Vargas' rotation slot.  He’s worked out of the pen before and has the ability to go multiple innings when the starter gets crushed or the game goes into extra innings.  His performance on Thursday demonstrated that.  Gsellman has not pitched quite well enough to make the front office forget his mouthiness from last year.  Rhame has good reverse platoon splits and with Matt Purke and P.J. Conlon already dispatched to the minor league camp, he’s the closest they have to neutralizing lefties after Blevins.  Montero's injury opens us a 40-man roster spot as he'll be thrust onto the 60-day DL.  Robles is, well, Robles (and since cut after this piece was written).  Even before the injury it's safe to say that the ship has sailed on the former while the latter is rowing furiously to resurrect his future with the team. 

I originally had written that Wheeler is going north and would most likely be in the rotation, but his consistency has not been there and he needs to pitch regularly given his multitude of injuries.  I expect they will exercise an option and have him begin the year as a part of the Las Vegas rotation. One of our regular readers -- Bill Metsiac -- drew a good comparison to Mike Pelfrey ("not in a good way"), a guy with good enough stuff that he could tantalize you into thinking he could be a force, yet those good starts were few and far between (much like the recently disabled Rafael Montero, too).

Of course, Bill doesn't remember that before contributing regularly here, we sounded off on opposite ends of the spectrum regarding Pelfrey, with me advocating they cut the hand licker loose and Bill vociferously defending him.  There's hope for you yet, my friend :)

Adrian Gonzalez and Juan Lagares are oddly joined at the hip by one Michael Conforto.  Once he returns then they need to drop a player to open up the roster spot.  That doesn’t give much time to Adrian Gonzalez to get it into gear lest he become another James Loney lunacy. 

During this first month or so of the season Phil Evans would be my choice to fill in as the emergency do-it-all utility player.  Depending on how he does will signal whether or not Sandy Alderson can become serious about dealing away Juan Lagares to some team in need of a gifted defensive player who is at best league average offensively. 

Now Evans making the team (at least temporarily) is accomplished by having T.J. Rivera already on the 60 day DL and  both Rafael Montero and David Wright likely to join him.  Thus roster spots become available. 

So what’s your take?