Reese Kaplan -- The More Things Change...

Well, if you had Jason Vargas with a broken hand, come on down!  You won the New York Mets injury fantasy sweepstakes.  Like health insurers, we are, of course, discounting pre-existing conditions like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steve Matz, Zack Wheeler, Yoenis Cespedes, David Wright and Michael Conforto.

So how does losing Jason Vargas impact the roster for the next 4-6 weeks?  A number of questions arise.  Would they rather go into the season with a single lefty in the pen or no lefties in the rotation?  Has Rafael Montero’s voodoo doll yielded him yet another life?  What do Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have to do to get a break?  Let’s take a look. 

Through happenstance and not by planning the vaunted “Big Five” may indeed become the rotation for April and May.  After all, inserting both Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler at the back end of the rotation to follow deGrom, Syndergaard and Harvey would enable this hope for the future actually get a chance to perform as a unit.  By some measures it is the most sensible approach since neither Wheeler nor Matz have logged any significant amount of time in a bullpen role.  They have each shown some flashes of solid pitching this Spring, so it is the path of least resistance.

What then does it do to the bullpen picture?  Well, after Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Anthony Swarzak you have probably 4 open slots to fill.  The question about whether to carry 7 or 8 relievers has probably now been answered if you have short-starters like Wheeler and Matz now in the rotation.  The extra bullpen arm is a necessity rather than a luxury.

Based on Spring performance from traditional relievers, you would think that Paul Sewald and Jacob Rhame have a leg up on the competition.  After that it becomes murkier. 

The story of Rafael Montero is not new to anyone following the team.  He rocketed his way through the minors on strong control and stingy with hits, but never saw it consistently translate at the big league level.  He’s gone through a period one year of a mysterious ailment that even had his then manager questioning his mental toughness.  You see occasional flashes but he’s never been able to string together a solid month.  However, he is out of options and granting him a final chance would enable the Mets to showcase him for a possible trade if he does reasonably well during this time period.

Seth Lugo still has doubts about his arm but he’s delivering with solid results.  The spin rate on his hook has scouts drooling and he’s performed both out of the pen and in the rotation.  He is by all counts the classic swingman. 

Robert Gsellman is a ground ball pitcher whose location is the key to his success.  When he keeps the ball down then he’s successful.  If he doesn’t then he becomes a batting practice pitcher.  He has options and questions, so I would think he’s the one ticketed for AAA. 

Hansel Robles has done everything in his power to pitch his way out of the picture.  Hopefully decisions are made based upon results and not long-ago past history as was done by the previous manager.  He should be in AAA at best, or dealt away to another club. 

So what do you all think?