Reese Kaplan -- Nationals Are The Team to Beat Again

The only way for the Mets to assure themselves a post-season berth is to unseat the perennial champion Washington Nationals.  While there’s always optimism come opening day, do the Mets have enough to do so?  If you do a position-by-position comparison, it’s going to be an uphill climb.

1^st Base

While the Mets will trot out some combination of Adrian Gonzalez, Wilmer Flores, Dom Smith and/or Jay Bruce to anchor the infield, all the Nationals have is Ryan Zimmerman.  He provided 36 HRs and 108 RBIs last year while hitting .303.  I think that’s a pretty clear edge to the Nationals.

2^nd Base

The Mets have Asdrubal Cabrera.  The Nationals have ex-Met Daniel Murphy.  Moving right along…

Shortstop

Wunderkind Trea Turner in most of a full season provided the Nats with 11 HRs and 45 RBIs while stealing a whopping 46 bases and hitting .284.  The most optimistic among us would do cartwheels if Amed Rosario could approach these numbers but at this point the edge must go to Washington.

3^rd Base

While the Mets brought on board a 3 WAR player in Todd Frazier to replace the ever ailing David Wright, the Nationals have to make do with Anthony Rendon.  All he did last year was hit .301 with 25 HRs and 100 RBIs.  While Frazier’s HR total may indeed be higher, expect the batting average and RBI numbers to be way lower.  Again, edge to the Nationals.

Catcher 

It’s seemingly not often that Washington hits a clinker when it comes to personnel decisions but the former Oriole, Matt Weiters, did not justify their expenditure last year.  Providing a .225 average with 10 HRs and 52 RBIs over the course of 422 ABs already pales next to Travis d’Arnaud’s .244/16/57 in about 76 fewer ABs.  Add in the strong finish and spectacular spring (along with Kevin Plawecki) and finally the Mets have an edge at a position. 

Left Field

Adam Eaton’s first season in DC was a lost one due to injury, but if you go back to his last full season in Chicago he provided a .284/14/59 with 14 stolen bases.  Those are solid numbers but should pale next to a healthy Yoenis Cespedes.  Edge Mets.

Center Field

While Michael Taylor had his best yet season in 2017, his slash line of .271/19/53 with 17 SBs is probably what you might get from a Brandon Nimmo full season.  Of course, Nimmo is merely the 4^th outfielder and will give way to Michael Conforto who hopes to build on his 2017 All Star campaign.  Edge Mets.

Right Field

Which Bryce Harper will the Nationals get this year?  Is he the .330 hitting slugger with 42 HRs and 99 RBIs of 2015 or is he more like the last two years where he didn’t eclipse 30 in HRs and RBIs were in the upper 80s?  If it’s the latter then the edge might go to Jay Bruce in an average year provides 32 HRs and 96 RBIs – both better numbers than Harper – but the batting average is significantly less at .249.  In a walk year for Harper I would expect he’s motivated to come up big time so I’d still give the edge to the Nats’ right fielder.

Starting Rotation

While you could make the argument that Noah Syndergaard has more talent than Max Scherzer, the fact is that for consistency and health you have to give an edge to the 3-time Cy Young Award Winner.

Stephen Strasburg has had a dominant career beset by injuries.  Still, last year the Nat’s number two had spectacular season, going 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA.  For his career he’s at a very impressive 3.07.  However, the Mets number two starter, Jacob deGrom, has an even gaudier 2.98 ERA for his career and his peripheral numbers are comparable.  It’s a push.

Gio Gonzalez also put together his finest campaign in 2017 but for his career he’s a winning pitcher with 3.64 ERA and a mediocre WHIP.  Even with the injuries and the two horrific years in a row Matt Harvey’s career numbers are better but until he proves healthy I’d call this one a push as well.

Tanner Roark was the rare Nats’ pitcher who had a poor year in 2017 by his standards.  His record was positive at 13-11, but his ERA was 4.67 and his WHIP 1.33.  It was nearly 2 full runs worse than his 2016 campaign, but he’s still a respectable 3.41 for his career.  Steven Matz is a work in progress due to the myriad of injuries he’s suffered.  If he could ever put together a full season injury free he would likely be a far superior choice, but at this stage the numbers and health favor Roark. 

The Nationals have something of a wildcard in the 5^th starter slot with A.J. Cole.  He’s 4-7 for his caerer over 22 games (17 starts) with a 4.52 ERA.  That’s not much of a track record on which to project, but then neither does Seth Lugo have much of a record either.  He’s 12-7 over 26 starts with a 3.92 ERA.  If that was the battle I’d give the edge to Lugo, but it’s likely fairer to do a comparison to Jason Vargas who would also get the nod with an edge to the Mets.

Bullpen

Sean Doolittle had a terrific first year as closer for the Nationals with a WHIP of just 1.00 to go along with 21 saves in 22 save opportunities and a 2.40 ERA.  Until Jeurys Familia proves he’s healthy (and after just a single strikeout all spring), you have to give the nod to Washington.

Ryan Madsen, Brandon Kintzler and Joaquin Benoit give the Nats some formidable veteran arms to back up Doolittle.  The Mets counter with the very solid Jerry Blevins, the somewhat erratic AJ Ramos, and one-year-wonder Anthony Swarzak.  That’s pretty much a push.

Bench

The Nationals’ bench starts off quite well with Howie Kendrick and Matt Adams, both professional hitters.  Then it starts to weaken rapidly with an over-the-hill Miguel Montero and role players Wilmer Difo and Brian Goodwin.

The Mets’ bench includes Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Juan Lagares and Phil Evans.  Offensively three are capable.  Defensively Lagares is in a class by himself.  Nimmo likely returns to the bench when Michael Conforto returns from the DL making a pretty strong bench that much more solid.  Edge Mets.

So if you go back and count, you have 4 infield positions with clear edges to the Nats.  Mets get catcher.  Mets get 2 outfield positions but the Bryce Harper/Jay Bruce battle is pretty close.   For starting rotation you get a slight edge to Scherzer over Syndergaard, two pushes, Roark over Matz and the Mets 5^th starter over Cole.  Bullpen gets a slight edge to the Nats and bench an edge to the Mets.  That’s 7 to the Nats (8 if you count Harper), and 5 for the Mets.  For people who think the Mets will get to the postseason, it’s likely going to have to be by way of the wildcard.