Reese Kaplan -- Sandy Alderson's Psychic Drafting?

Is it premature to offer up an apology of sorts to Sandy Alderson? 

At the risk of falling into the small sample size trap, the game is about attitude and work ethic as much as it is natural talent.  Both former first round picks – Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo – had been written off as failures by many pundits.  Both have had limited trials in the big leagues, Nimmo due to injuries and an overcrowded outfield and Cecchini due to the inexplicable desire to give more ABs last year to Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera when it was clear they were long out of contention. 

In Nimmo’s case, some of the success of people selected AFTER him have put him (and Alderson) after the Mets decided to take the Wyoming product who didn’t even play high school ball their number one makes for a pretty valid condemnation.  Take a look at the All-Stars who could have been had – Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and Joe Panik.  He did manage to pass on Sean Gilmartin in the draft, so there is that. 

Nimmo’s road to the majors was a bit slow as he did not have a lot of time in organized ball.  Consequently his first few years were not all that awe-inspiring for a number one pick (and the first of the Sandy Alderson era).  Though the first three years with stops at various affiliates his averages ranged from .111 to .278.  The most encouraging thing was that he was trending upward, so it appeared me might be something of a late bloomer. 

In fact, in 2014 he had a 227 AB stint in A+ at Port St. Lucie where he hit .322, encouraging enough that he was moved up to AA.  There was some regression as his numbers there were less than stellar.  He dropped down to a mere .238 and the whispers began a bit more loudly about Alderson’s prized pick.

Given his draft pedigree, he was going to be moved steadily up the system and eventually he hit the offensive paradise/pitching Hell of Las Vegas.  In 2016 it all came together for him when he hit .352 with 11 HRs and 61RBIs over just shy of 400 ABs.  His .423 OBP is what really caught people’s attention and many felt he’d finally come of age. 

During 2016 and 2017 Nimmo spent a lot of time on the DL and shuttled back and forth between the minors and the majors.  While he’s held his own with the bat at the big league level with a .264 average over 250 combined ABs, he never got an extended look to see if he could push it to the next level. 

With the injury to Michael Conforto opening up the centerfield position for a month or so, it was incumbent upon Nimmo to put it into overdrive to convince the new manager who doesn’t automatically treat younger players with disdain that he belongs in the lineup.  Thus far this spring they have to be tickled pink with his .340+ AVG with a little bit of power and the ongoing high OBP number.  To most folks it seems as if the Mets have solved both their CF and leadoff dilemma in one. 

Gavin Cecchini suffers some of the draft pick comparisons when Sandy Alderson used the 12^th pick overall to pick the Louisiana high school standout shortstop.  Behind him available for the taking were World Series Champion reliever Lance McCullers, Jr., the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and the Cardinals Michael Wacha.  Other solid ballplayers include the Cardinals’ Stephen Piscotty, the Mariners’ Mitch Haniger and the Rangers enigmatic slugger Joey Gallo. 

Cecchini’s rise up the ladder was also not the thing of legends.  Over his first three years he hit a combined .249 with only about 6 HRs per season and not much in the way of RBI production either.  He showed no real speed either. 

However, like Nimmo, in his fourth year in the minors it started clicking for him and over the next two years he hit a much more impressive .321.  There was still little power and little speed, but there’s usually room in the majors for people who make consistent contact.  His OBP was not quite at Nimmo’s level but it was impressive enough to take notice. 

Unfortunately, Cecchini regressed big time in 2017 in his return to Las Vegas.  Part of it might have been some pouting about not getting the chance to move up and part of it might have been complacency given the success of the past two seasons.  He hit a ho-hum .267 with just 6 HRs and 39 RBIs in over 450 ABs.  His 77 AB major league trial last year was a forgettable .208.  Many wrote him off entirely and had no expectations going into Spring training 2018.

By most accounts he came in both bulked up and with a new attitude.  Thus far in the Spring whatever he’s done is working for him as he’s hitting a robust .350 with 2 of his 7 hits clearing the wall.  All of the sudden he’s in the conversation about possibly being a backup infielder going north (particularly when Jose Reyes is only hitting .174).  The chances of Reyes being pushed aside for Cecchini are nil, but perhaps he could be positioned as the 5^th outfielder for a month, clearing a roster spot for Cecchini in the infield. 

While several of us are taking a wait and see attitude on both of these much maligned picks, the fact is they’re doing what they need at the right time to get noticed and perhaps make Sandy Alderson look prescient in his high level picks.  There’s no guarantee either will be regulars, but 3 years ago many doubted they’d even make the majors.