Reese Kaplan -- Tabula Rasa, Forget about 2017

After correctly predicting the final roster I’m going out on a limb, pushing my luck and predicting what kind of output the Mets can expect during its inaugural season with rookie manager Mickey Callaway at the helm.  Thus far he’s saying all of the right things and hopefully exerting his honeymoon period influence on some of the roster composition decisions.  However, as the long season begins tomorrow a great many things can happen, both good and bad, to have the various members of the team either exceed or fail to meet expectations. 

Health

The number of variable in the success of this team is not the fact they have a new manager but hopefully receive a better spin of the dice when it comes to injuries.  Already Rafael Montero is done for the year, Jason Vargas done for however long they think he needs for his non-pitching hand to be capable of fielding his position.  Remember that Robert Gsellman came up in 2016 not able to swing a bat, so it can be done.  Dom Smith probably had less than a 10% chance of going north with the big club before his oversleeping and the subsequent quad injury, but it’s another brick on the load.  T.J. Rivera is already on the 60-day DL.  David Wright is not but he’ll assume his usual position there as well. 

On the plus side, Yoenis Cespedes came back swinging for the fences, Michael Conforto progressed faster than was expected and Anthony Swarzak returned to action though didn’t log very many innings.

First Base

Well, to no one’s surprise, veteran Adrian Gonzalez is going north, slated to get the early season lion’s share of the starts.  This development has every Mets fan shaking their heads in disbelief based upon results – flirting with the Mendoza line and an OPS under .600.  By contrast Wilmer Flores had an awesome spring, hitting off both left handed and right handed pitching with aplomb, showing confidence and clutch ability.  In the past the braintrust felt he was at best a super utility player.  It seems to many as he’s turning 27 that he’s ready for a full time gig.  The fly in the ointment is current persona non grata, Dominic Smith, who needs to perform at an ultra high level in order to get back into the club’s good graces.  Then there’s Peter Alonso hot on his heels as well.  I think the Mets would do themselves well to see what Wilmer Flores can do even if he’s not part of their long terms plans.  If he has a solid season then he becomes a viable trade chip.  If he has a stellar season and Dom Smith does as well, then Smith becomes a trade chip.  The only thing that can interfere with these plans is an ongoing delusional commitment to Adrian Gonzalez.  I hope they give him a very short rope.  No one would be unhappy if he actually did perform, but based upon his 2017 season and his lackluster spring the odds are about the same as achieving peace in the Middle East. 

Second Base

When they chose to exercise the option on Asdrubal Cabrera, the almost universal sentiment was, “Meh!”  No one doubted he could again perform at an acceptable offensive level.  Many doubted his declining defense, health and questionable attitude.  However, at the relatively modest $8.5 million cost for a player who delivered 3.9 WAR during his two years in a Mets uniform it seemed good business to snag him once again with the never ending David Wright saga.  They then brought back Jose Reyes at a modest $2 million contract allegedly to be a bench player.  When you consider that’s less money than even Wilmer Flores makes, that seems a relatively good investment if he’s indeed used in that role. 

Shortstop

While everyone piled on Dom Smith for his high power and low average offensive output and his sluggish defense, no one seemed to bat an eye at the numbers posted by Amed Rosario.  He was somewhat erratic in the field, very undisciplined at the plate and delivered a slash line of just .248/4/10 with 7 SBs in 165 ABs.  He’s had a very solid spring, so the optimism about his abilities have been restored and both Reyes and Cabrera can back up this position should Rosario falter or get hurt.

Third Base

In a way, the Mets replaced Curtis Granderson with Todd Frazier, an all-or-nothing swinger who plays solid defense and gets on base a lot despite hitting well below .250.   People were on the fence about Frazier as a positive contributor.  Some advocated paying up for Mike Moustakas.  Others wanted speedster Eduardo Nunez.  Some wanted Wilmer Flores to be handed 2^nd base, Cabrera at 3^rd base and money better spent on other positions.  However, by waiting out the market Sandy Alderson got him at the same $8.5 million average per year he’s paying for Cabrera.  It was just a two year commitment and he’s delivered over 3 WAR during EACH of the past two seasons.  That’s a win as long as you can get those 35 plus dingers this year and next.

Catcher

A year ago everyone was ready to trashcan Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki was being lumped in with Gavin Cecchini and other draft picks who have fulfilled their potential.  You couldn’t blame anyone for that given the numbers that were posted by the duo.  Mid year, however, Rene Rivera was mercifully put out to pasture and that opened up opportunities for both catchers to perform without looking over their shoulders.  They finished strongly enough that no efforts were made to change the personnel behind the dish.  The Mets were rewarded with very strong springs from both of them, opening up the pleasant dilemma of who gets the majority of playing time. 

Outfield

While Michael Conforto is thankfully going to take a little more time to get into full season condition, Brandon Nimmo stepped up with a .311 spring campaign, getting on base with aplomb and establishing himself as a viable major leaguer.  While he doesn’t have Conforto’s power, he can hold down the fort until the All Star comes north.  Flanking one of them in centerfield will be Yoenis Cespedes in left and Jay Bruce in right.  When was the last time you could hold your head up and say the Mets may have one of the best outfields in all of baseball?

Bench

The Mets go into the season with an extra catcher, Juan Lagares, Phil Evans, Jose Reyes and Wilmer Flores on the bench.  That’s not too shabby, but a decision will have to be made when Michael Conforto returns.  Phil Evans, Adrian Gonzalez and the first reliever to tank would seem to be the ones on the hot seat. 

Starting Rotation

Nothing more needs to be said about Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard (in whichever sequence floats your boat).  They are the right handed double threat the Mets have not had in some time.  Matt Harvey is showing he’s becoming a pitcher rather than a thrower and is still a work in progress back from injury.  Steve Matz looks healthy and dominant after a very rocky start.  Seth Lugo pushed Zack Wheeler not only out of the rotation but out of Queens.  Then there’s Jason Vargas waiting in the wings.  Yeah, they look like they could be pretty special. 

Bullpen

Here you have returning Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Paul Sewald.  That’s a pretty good top four.  Add into the mix newcomer Anthony Swarzak, started turned reliever Robert Gsellman, and the first of the great 2017 selloff coming north, Jacob Rhame, the Mets seem like that have a little more depth without leaning on the likes of Hansel Robles, Erik Goeddel or Josh Smoker.  They also have some impressive looking arms in the minors, including newly signed veteran Fernando Abad, extremely impressive P.J. Conlon and a host of others. 

Management

No one knows what to expect from Mickey Callaway and company, but it was clear a change was needed.  Improving communications, rewarding higher performers with starting assignments and understanding that younger ballplayers are not kryptonite are all steps in the right direction.  It will be interesting to see what happens to the health of the pitchers with two pitching-oriented leaders watching over them. 

With all of this feel good start-of-the-season stuff, I’m still sticking by my prediction that the Mets miss the playoffs but do finish with a winning record.