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3/22/18
Mike Friere - So, What Is OPS?
In an effort to make "all that is old, new again", I have resurrected an old series of articles that I put together in a previous "Mack's Mets" lifetime that focused on the new wave of statistical analysis that has shaped baseball scouting and player rankings. Some would refer to them as "Sabermetrics" and others would argue that it isn't necessarily new anymore.
Both of those statements are true, as we are all getting older by the minute, right?
However, to keep things somewhat fresh, I will go over a new statistic each week and then I will attempt to relate that measure to our favorite team and one or more of our current players to see how we rate, so to speak. In the first installment of this series, we took a look at WHIP and how it is a fairly accurate measure of a pitcher's success, or lack thereof. For this article, let's switch over to the batter's side of things and take a look at OPS.
OPS stands for "on base percentage plus slugging percentage" and it is also expressed as a percentage, sort of like batting average but it differs slightly in that it can range over 1.000 in certain cases. Before we delve any further into how OPS works, I think it would be helpful to look at the two sub-components that combine to form the larger statistic and they are as follows;
Hits + Walks + HBP
On Base Percentage (OBP) = -----------------
AB + BB + SF + HBP
Total Bases
Slugging Percentage (SLG) = --------------
Total At Bats
These two statistics are pretty straight forward and they are also more well known among baseball fans with the higher the percentage the better. On Base Percentage tends to be used more when discussing lead off hitters, while slugging percentage is used as the leading measure of power hitters. That doesn't mean that a player that can do both very well isn't valuable or highly sought after. Quite the contrary actually and that is likely how OPS came about (i.e. combining the two statistics).
So, if you are curious (or you just have a lot of time on your hands), here is the basic formula for figuring out OPS;
AB X (H + BB + HBP) + TB x (AB + BB + SF + HBP)
OPS = -------------------------------------------------
AB x (AB + BB + SF + HBP)
OK, so that is a whole lot more work then 99.99% of you are likely to ever take part in, right? Especially when it is much easier to simply add together a player's OBP and SLG and arrive at the same basic number. Or, better still, just look up a player's OPS on any of a hundred websites and take from it what you will.
But, what does it mean exactly?
Borrowing from Bill James and his essay on "The 96 Families of Hitters", here is a simple chart that expresses how valuable each measure may be;
Category Classification OPS Range
A Great .9000 and Higher
B Very Good .8333 to .8999
C Above Average .7667 to .8333
D Average .7000 to .7666
E Below Average .6334 to .6999
F Poor .5667 to .6333
G Very Poor .5666 and Lower
Granted, the descriptors are pretty generic, but it certainly helps put things into perspective, a bit. The higher the OPS, the more effective the batter and that translates into more runs scored for his team. For some additional perspective, the best "OPS season" on record was Barry Bonds' 2004 campaign where he registered an 1.422 figure! Babe Ruth has the highest career OPS with a 1.164 statistical mark, which isn't too shabby.
Last year, Mike Trout led all of MLB with an OPS of 1.071, which is "great" on our chart and I would agree. He was followed by Aaron Judge, Joey Votto, Mike Stanton and Charlie Blackmon who rounded out the top five and are all excellent baseball players (I sense a Tom comment on the Yankees' lineup any moment now).
Enough about other teams......you may be wondering how our own players fared last year and I have an answer for you. In a weird twist of fate and a telling factor in the Mets' collapse of 2017, the top five players in OPS all failed to play a full season! Whether it be due to injuries or trades, none of them topped 406 at bats, which is pretty crazy. With that said, here are the top five Mets from 2017;
***Michael Conforto 0.939 (Great)
***Yoenis Cespedes 0.892 (Very Good)
Lucas Duda 0.879 (Very Good)
***Jay Bruce 0.841 (Very Good)
Curtis Granderson 0.815 (Above Average)
Fortunately, three of them will be back in the fold this year and they will likely make up the core of our lineup (health permitting, of course), which is a pretty good start.
In closing, I think that OPS is a telling statistic and one that measures the overall effectiveness of an individual player. The best players in baseball get on base regularly AND they can also hit for power which translates to success on the field, for their respective teams and in the final standings.
Might Adrian G end up falling into the top end of Poor OPS? Would the Mets have been better off cutting him and re-signing Duda for a year for as cheaply as he signed with KC? Duda so far this spring is .400/.500/.680 in a little over 30 PAs.
ReplyDeleteOur goal for all Mets players not named Conforto, Cespedes and Bruce? Try to have an OPS more than half as high as Bonds' ridiculous 1.4+ single season record. Drugs or no drugs, he was like a major league slugger hitting against NY Penn league pitchers in that freaky good year.
If you only could chose one stat to look at for a field player, use OPS.
ReplyDeleteIt tells the most about the player.
Spring figures right now:
d-Arnaud: 1.147
Flores .992
Nimmo - ,946
Evans - .932
Cespedes - .894
Lagares - .483
Reyes - .495
Frazier - .518
Gonzalez - .531
FYI -
Tebow: .161
In the realm of "one of these things is not like the other" do you notice where Flores is vis a vis Gonzalez, NImmo vis a vis Lagares and Evans vis a vis Reyes?
ReplyDeletePlease don't give me any Terry Collins flashbacks while I watch superior players nailed to the bench while inferior older players get their ABs.
When Tebow was at .161, they gave him...the boot. The walking boot.
ReplyDeleteReese - Reyes has one attractive aspect - SOME speed on a speedless team. let him pinch run.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it is over for Jose - speedy Zoilo Versalles was MVP at age 25 - crap by age 27 - retired at 31. Maybe Jose Reyes is now, sadly, crap - if so, recognize it and move on.
If onlybthey had some young SS ready to back up Rosario with bat catching ability...
ReplyDeleteOnce Guillorme has a Triple Crown lead thru June in AAA, maybe he'll get a chance in Queens. Maybe.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Reese.
ReplyDeleteSee my Q and A answer this week...
The Mets need to move on.