Mike Friere - Now and Later - Part Two (First Base)

This series will focus on a different position during each installment until we exhaust all of the available positions on the diamond.  The concept of “now and later” is an assessment of a particular position in 2018 (now) and a look into the near future (later) to see if the position in question is in “good hands” so to speak.  I think it is difficult to make any sound predictions more then two or three years into the future, as things typically change in ways that no one expects (i.e. life happens).  With that said, “later” will primarily focus on players from the AAA, AA and A levels since anyone below that level is probably not going to vault their way onto the major league roster in such a short window.  However, if there is someone below that level that is intriguing, they could make their way into the discussion as a "honorable mention”.

Part One of this series took a look at the catching depth, or lack thereof, within the organization. Part Two will focus on the state of our First Basemen, which tends to have a bit more depth since it is viewed by some as a position that you put players that "cannot play anywhere else on the field" but they can usually hit. That may or may not be true, but since the Mets play in the National League and there is no DH for this type of player it’s probably not far off.  

Interestingly enough, at the start of Spring Training most fans felt that the position was Dominic Smith’s to lose.  Adrian Gonzalez was on the radar, but most felt that he was a “lottery ticket” since he was a low cost, veteran alternative.  In the best case scenario, AG would recapture his form from the past and it would buy DS some time to refine his game in Las Vegas.  Worst case scenario, AG would bomb and he could be cut from the roster without the worry of a high dollar contract.

As of this article (04/02/18), the Mets will enter the 2018 season with a "platoon of sorts” at first base with Adrian Gonzalez getting a majority of the at bats while Wilmer Flores fills in against really tough left handed pitchers, or to simply give AG a break.  This also resulted in Dominic Smith starting the year out in Las Vegas after leaving Mickey Callaway's doghouse.  

I suppose that in a pinch, Jay Bruce could also vacate right field and play the position, so there are several layers of cover for Mickey Callaway to use in 2018. IF AG stays healthy and returns to his career averages both at the plate and in the field, I think the Mets will be pleased and Sandy should get “props” for getting him on the cheap, but that is a pretty big IF.

Adrian Gonzalez will play the 2018 season as a 36 year old veteran of fifteen seasons, who is also on an expiring contract so he is definitely NOT a prospect.   Based on his time line, he is a “NOW” player and will not be a part of the roster moving forward unless he visits the fountain of youth between now and October.  I do not see him completely returning to his career averages, but I don’t think it is out of the question to expect roughly 125 starts, along with solid defense and approximately 500 at bats.  In that scenario, he could produce a statistical line of .285/.350/.435 (.785 OPS), along with 20 HR and 80 RBI.   Or, right in line with his last full season of playing time in Los Angeles in 2016.

Wilmer Flores is a man without a position, which is unfortunate because he has shown that his bat is pretty potent when given a chance to play.  He will play the 2018 season as a 26 year old, so his prospect status has likely faded away to more of a solid bench piece on a contending club.  He will be arbitration eligible next year (2019) and then a full fledged free agent the year after that (2020).  Much like AG’s time line, WF’s contributions at first base will be a “NOW” issue and not a “LATER” option.  I do think he will scoop up any playing time at first base that AG cannot handle, which should be in the neighborhood of 35 or so starts and 150 or so at bats at the position (when his is not filling in at another position on the field, that is).

I don’t see Jay Bruce getting much in the way of playing time at first base, barring an injury or other unusual event.  So, between AG and WF, our “franken-first baseman” could realistically produce in the neighborhood of .280/.345/.435 (.780 OPS), with roughly 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI, not to mention solid defense, so we are in pretty good shape for 2018.

Looking a bit farther down the road, here is what is available “on the farm” from low A upward;

Dominic Smith (23)

Peter Alonso (23)

Jhoan Urena (24)

Matt Oberste (27)

Jeremy Vasquez (22)

Dash Winningham (22)

On my initial review, I saw DS and PA on this list and felt that we were in very good shape going forward.  Starting in 2019, I think one of them (likely DS) will take AG’s place on the roster and in the field.  By 2020, PA should also be knocking on the door, which will force the Mets’ hand a bit since neither one of them are capable of playing anywhere else on the field (unlike Wilmer, for example).  If they both develop, it is a nice problem to have and it should result in the Mets picking one player as the future (LATER) and the other as a prime trade asset for a future need.

Outside of the top two names, there aren't many blue chip “prospects” on this list (minus anyone I may have missed), especially if you are looking at their ages and projecting where they will potentially be in two or three years (blocked).  Of the group, Jhoan Urena is an interesting name due to his bat, but since the NL does not use the DH I am not sure where he fits in because his defense leaves something to be desired.  One or more of the remaining players could become a back up/bench piece, in a best case scenario.    

First Base isn’t necessarily deep, but with two very good prospects at the top of the list, it is in pretty good shape.  

What will be interesting is how Sandy chooses between DS and PA.

What do you think?