Q and A -- Can Cespedes, Bruce, and Conforto average 41 HRs this season?

Tom Brennan asks -

The Mets' season record for home runs after 56 seasons is shared by Beltran and Hundley, a relatively paltry 41.

Question: Do you think that the outfield trio of Cespedes, Bruce, and Conforto could AVERAGE 41 homers this year?

 Or, if not, will the entire outfield hit at least that many (123 homers) this season?

           

            Jack Flynn says –

If the Mets' outfield combines to hit 90 home runs next season, we should all be celebrating.

Yoenis Cespedes has only reached the 35-homer mark once in his career, and has only played 150 games or more twice. He's a good bet for 25 to 30 homers in the 130 games he's likely to play, but asking for 40 is just too much.

Jay Bruce reached his career high with 36 home runs last season, and despite the fact that he is more durable than Cespedes, he is nevertheless unlikely to make it past that mark this year. He has reached the 30-homer mark five times in his career, and Bruce has certainly bought in on adjusting his launch angle to hit more fly balls. A healthy season means he could challenge the 35-homer mark again.

That leaves Michael Conforto and the adjustments he will make after shoulder surgery. No one knows how his power numbers will bounce back, since his injury was a relatively unusual one for a position player. Frankly, it strikes me that he more likely to turn into Josh Reddick than he is to ever hit 40 home runs.

Mike Friere says –

I think statistical benchmarks always come with an asterisk......not the Barry Bonds asterisk, but one that signals the reader that the issue isn't as black and white as a numerical comparison.  There have been a variety of "eras" within MLB's history, some have favored the long ball and others have been referred to as "dead ball" eras.  With that said, the number of home runs a team (or a player) generates, or a particular record is relevant to the era in question.

Furthermore, the relatively low total you referenced in your question probably has a lot to do with the Mets consistently playing in ball parks that ranged from neutral to suppressive towards home runs. However, it seems that MLB is currently in a "home run" heavy era, so I would not be surprised if one or more of the players you listed emerge as real threats to the Mets' single season home run record of 41 (despite CitiField's dimensions).

I think Yoenis Cespedes has the best chance (say 50-50), so long as he stays healthy and gets enough at bats. 

As far as the trio is concerned, I am more pessimistic that ALL of them will threatened 41 home runs (in order to get to 123 collective bombs), but would love to be proven wrong. 

Mack says –

Tom, I have always appreciated your optimism when it comes to the Mets… not to be confused with your thoughts on the Long Island Railroad.

I do expect all three to hit a lot of homes this season, but 123 combined is, in my opinion, a stretch.

                        Over 100? Yes.

           

Reese Kaplan says –

Bruce has topped the charts at 36.  Cepedes' high water mark is 35.  Conforto's best is 27 in an injury shortened year.  Assuming health, the answer would be no.  Assuming Mets' health, the answer is a resounding no.  I hope I'm wrong, but even if Conforto (starting late) could hit 40, that would still leave them well shy of the total you're seeking to eclipse. 

David Rubin says  -

Tom: I was wondering myself if a healthy outfield of Cespedes, Conforto and Bruce (w/Nimmo) would set the team's all-time record for homers this year, and I think if ever it was going to happen, it would be 2018. I can see either Bruce or Yo! breaking the record, especially if Cespedes stays healthy and motivated as he has been all spring long. With the homer trend not going away any time soon and with Frazier in the line-up as well as a hot-hitting catching tandem (which hopefully looks like this all season long) I could also see the team threatening their all-time homer mark in a season. Now if our rotation and bullpen can KEEP from letting too many get launched against us, this could truly be a very exciting season!!