Erica Lay - Amed Rosario: Five Tool Player?

In August of 2017, Baseball Prospectus called Amed Rosario a “true five-tool prospect”. The five tools commonly associated with baseball are:

Speed

Average

Power

Fielding

Arm Strength

It’s easy to see that Rosario has plus tools on the defensive side. But from what we’ve seen so far, it’s harder to see that plus ability on the offensive side.

At times, Rosario looks overmatched at the plate. It got me thinking about other Mets with similar offensive styles and how they stacked up their first year in the majors. 

I pulled up some stats for Mets with a similar skill set – speedy hitters that you could envision in the leadoff spot, despite a lack of plate discipline. The three that came to mind were Mookie Wilson, Lenny Dykstra and Jose Reyes. As I was looking at the numbers, a few things stood out:

Strikeouts

Name	Age	G	PA	AB	SO	K%
Amed Rosario	21-22	81	293	280	78	26%
Mookie Wilson	24	27	119	105	19	15%
Lenny Dykstra	22	83	273	236	24	8%
Jose Reyes	20	69	292	274	36	12%

Rosario’s K rate is almost double the next closest on the list – 26% vs. Mookie Wilson’s 15%. In fairness, Wilson had less than half the plate appearances of Rosario.

Walks

Name	Age	G	PA	AB	BB	BB%
Amed Rosario	21-22	81	293	280	7	2%
Mookie Wilson	24	27	119	105	12	10%
Lenny Dykstra	22	83	273	236	30	10%
Jose Reyes	20	69	292	274	13	4%

Rosario has the fewest walks despite having the most plate appearances. Accordingly, his walk rate is the lowest of the group. I always thought of Wilson as the ultimate free swinger. Surprisingly, he had almost double the number of walks that Rosario has in less than half the plate appearances.

OBP

Name	Age	G	PA	AB	OBP	lgOBP
Amed Rosario	21-22	81	293	280	0.271	0.326
Mookie Wilson	24	27	119	105	0.325	0.325
Lenny Dykstra	22	83	273	236	0.338	0.327
Jose Reyes	20	69	292	274	0.334	0.336

As expected, given his high K rate and low walk rate, Rosario has the lowest OBP by more than 50 points. While the others on this list were all right around the league average, Rosario’s OBP is significantly below league average.

BA vs BABIP

Name	Age	G	PA	AB	BA	BABIP
Amed Rosario	21-22	81	293	280	0.246	0.327
Mookie Wilson	24	27	119	105	0.248	0.302
Lenny Dykstra	22	83	273	236	0.254	0.277
Jose Reyes	20	69	292	274	0.307	0.335

Rosario’s BABIP isn’t alarmingly high or low, but I found it very interesting that despite having the second highest BABIP on this list, he has the lowest batting average.

Now, what does it all mean? It’s hard to say given the small sample size, but if we take a closer look, we’ll see that the overall walk and K rates for Wilson, Dykstra and Reyes didn’t change too much over the course of their careers, with the exception of Wilson’s steep drop in walk rate:

Name	BB% - 1st Year	BB% - Career	K% - 1st Year	K% - Career
Amed Rosario	2%	TBD	26%	TBD
Mookie Wilson	10%	5%	15%	15%
Lenny Dykstra	10%	12%	8%	9%
Jose Reyes	4%	7%	12%	11%

Name	BA - 1st Year	BA - Career	OBP - 1st Year	OBP - Career
Amed Rosario	0.246	TBD	0.271	TBD
Mookie Wilson	0.248	0.274	0.325	0.314
Lenny Dykstra	0.254	0.285	0.338	0.375
Jose Reyes	0.307	0.285	0.334	0.336

Reyes and Dykstra were able to increase their walk rate without a large increase in K rate. Both went on to become above average major leaguers. Wilson, whose walk rate dropped and whose K rate stayed the same, was a good player but spent a majority of his career in a platoon role.

When it comes to power, Rosario’s SLG% is higher than everyone on this list except Reyes, although it’s still well below league average. This is expected as power typically develops last.

Name	SLG	lgSLG
Amed Rosario	0.364	0.419
Mookie Wilson	0.352	0.382
Lenny Dykstra	0.331	0.386
Jose Reyes	0.434	0.425

So, is Rosario a five-tool player? That’s yet to be determined. The raw talent is there. Everything hinges on his ability to increase his on-base skills, whether via hits or walks (or, more likely, some combination of the two).

If Rosario can increase his on-base skills, he’ll be in a better position to capitalize on his plus speed. He’s shown good gap power to the opposite field and I expect the power will continue to develop over the next few years, especially if he’s able to cut down on his strikeouts. A 2% walk rate is unsustainable, especially when paired with a K rate of 26%.

If he can increase his OBP, it’s not unreasonable to think he could be a player similar to Reyes – maybe not quite as dynamic on the basepaths, but an above average defender with good speed and pop. Learning how to utilize his speed by bunting for base hits could also help elevate his game.

If he’s unable to control the strike zone and increase his OBP, he may end up an above average defender without enough offense to justify a full time role.

Although he’s looked overmatched at times, he’s also shown flashes of being the player we hope for – last night’s game is a prime example. Rosario has the talent. Hopefully he has the ability to develop that talent, and we have the ability to be patient enough to let it happen.