Mack - Mets By 2020

A number of you have had discussions whether the Mets need to totally reload which would include the selling of both Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. I know this sounds crazy to many of you, but it is the proven way to re-stock a team that simply doesn’t have enough chips to get the deal done.

The fact is both are getting some age on them and, if you want top dollar for their services, this would be the time to do it. DeGrom hasn’t had many issues this year, but Syndergaard just can’t get past the seventh inning. The fact is he has never had a professional complete game.

You trade both of these for three Top 100 ranked prospects each and you are on the way to restocking this team with the players you would need to return this team to dominance by around 2020.

Go trace the history of what the Braves have done the last five years.

But first, what do we have in the system that projects out to be solid ++ chips:

First, let’s discuss the infield.

Ex-prospect SS Amed Rosario (22/yrs. – ETA: 2018) is already playing in Flushing and is showing more improvement everyday he takes the field. He is under team control through 2023 and won’t be eligible for free agency until well past that. I have him remaining at short, though I can’t say the same for our next two shortstop prospects.

SS Luis Guillorme (23/yrs. – ETA: 2018) arrived this month to fill in at third base while Todd Frazier heals. I expect him to return to AAA-Vegas this season, but the experience at third will do wonders for his visibility. He already is getting major starts at second base in Las Vegas and I expect him to be the starter there in 2019 for the Mets.

1B Peter Alonso (23/yrs. old – ETA: 2019) has quickly surpassed Dominic Smith as the Mets top first base prospect. He is tearing up the Eastern League and there is no reason to move him to Las Vegas until the Mets decide the future of both Smith and Adrian Gonzalez. I’m sure he will be called up come September, but, on my team, this is the true future first baseman of this team and you won’t have to replace him until well into the next decade.

SS Andres Gimenez (19/yrs old – ETA: 2020-21) has been quickly going up the affiliate levels (DSL in 2016; three levels in 2017) and could be ready by the 2020 season. Most pundits rank him as the top Mets prospect. His bat is projected to grow past his already successful output at the A+ level (yes, he’s only 19…), but he’s barely a decent shortstop in the field. On my team, I move the slick fielding Guillorme to third and place Gimenez at second. I know I might be sacrificing some middle field defense, but I have to get these three guys on these three gap hitters on the field at the same time.

SS Ronny Mauricio (16/yrs. old - ???-ETA) is the wild card here. The Mets gave him a $2.1 signing bonus last year and he’ll start at short this season for one of the DSL team (don’t sweat that we keep signing Latin shortstops. They are always the most toolsy kids down there). He’s currently 6-3 and weighs 166. I would love to get 30 more pounds on him and convert him to one of the corner outfielders, but the least he is going to be is a good insurance policy if one of the three middle fielders listed above doesn’t work out.

SS-3B Mark Vientos (18/yrs. old – ETA: 2022) got a $1.5mil signing bonus from the Mets after being drafted second in last year’s draft. He debuted with the GCL Mets team (.259), splitting time at short and third. He is a legitimate prospect, though he’s years away today. He has a killer arm with a strong power projection. He could develop along with Mauricio as the next wave of infielders in Queens.

Let’s move to the outfield.

OF Michael Conforto (25/yrs. – ETA: Now) has played in Queens since he was called up in 2015. We know what he is capable of producing (27-HR last season). We also know that he’s coming back from a horrific injury that may cost him the rest of his career. In my opinion, this could go either way and it will probably take the remainder of this decision to decide what future he has with the Mets. We need this young man to heal. Talent like this doesn’t come around every year. 

OF Brandon Nimmo (25/yrs. old – ETA: Now) has arrived and I don’t think he’s going anywhere soon. He has a uncanny ability to get on base and plays a very decent defensive center field. He may never have developed the kind of power we had all hoped for, but he’s a professional major league starter in my book. He is not eligible for free agency until 2023.

OF Desmond Lindsay (20/yrs. – ETA: 2021) has gotten off to a slow professional start, but draft experts still rank him high in the Mets pipeline. He was drafted as a 5-tool kid out of high school who most of us knew nothing about. He’s had multiple hamstring problems and recent ulnar nerve surgery, Still, he runs well, has a ++ arm, and is projected with a 60/60 raw power rating. This alone, plus his age, means we should give this kid some time to develop.

OF Quinn Brody (22/yrs – ETA: 2021) was picked in last year’s draft in the third round. He had excellent power numbers in his final year at Stanford (11-HRs, 51-RBIs, .556-Slug%) and is projected to continue to develop as a power bat. He’s getting his feet wet right now in Columbia and, with a little patience, he could develop into a power corner outfielder. Quinn isn’t eligible for free agency until well into the next decade.

OF Adrian Hernandez (17/yrs. – ETA: ???) is all helium right now. He was signed last year as a 16-year old and given a $1.5mil bonus. He’s all projection right now, but he’s full of speed and projects out as a ++ defensive outfielder. Fangraphs describes him as a “power/speed corner outfield prospect”. He’ll start this season for one of the DSL teams and isn't eligible for free agency until well into the next decade.

Catcher wise, it is my opinion that there currently is no one in the organization that will develop into a top prospect. Lots of potentially good talent, but no great ones.

Starter wise…

SP David Peterson (22/yrs, ETA: 2020) is projected by Fangraphs as the only “50 FV” prospect in the Mets system. As usual, the Mets are starting him off to low in the system, but he should finish the year in St. Lucie and start next season in New York State. His fastball sits in the 88-92 range; however, it can hit 95. He’s off to a great start this year in Columbia and I expect him to finish the season for St. Lucie. Projects as a contact/ground ball pitcher as well as a potential SP1 candidate. This is the real deal, folks. Peterson isn’t eligible for free agency until well into the next decade.

SP Justin Dunn (22/yrs. ETA: 2020-21) came to the Mets with a 99-mph fastball, but it’s down to the 95-96 range now after a shoulder injury. He had a sub-par season last year for St.Lucie, but is turning that around right now. Maybe it came after the rumors that he was going to be converted to a reliever. I believe that Dunn is potentially only a tick behind Peterson and would line up perfectly as a future SP2. Dunn isn’t eligible for free agency until well into the next decade.

SP Thomas Szapucki (21/yrs – ETA: ???) was considered as the number one Mets pitching prospect until he went down for TJS. I’ve learned over the years to not predict what TJS patients can do after the surgery. I don’t expect him to pitch again this season which means we will have wait until next season to see what’s left of him.

SP Anthony Kay (22/yrs – ETA:2021-22) is another TJS patient who didn’t play in 2017. I would have him in the same category as Szapucki, but he’s proving that the surgery does sometimes return a pitcher to his job. Kay is throwing along side Peterson and could go through the chain with him, emerging as the SP3 in 2020. isn’t eligible for free agency until well into the next decade.

Now, there could be more. The Mets pipeline has 10-15 more ‘C-C+’ prospects that could make it to the majors and become a solid starter, but, as of right now, they still have much to do to get to the end of the line.

And please… don’t waste your time making comments here that you think I forgot anyone.

I didn’t.

These are the blue-chippers. And there aren't enough of them to turn this into a successful team.

I hope, just like you, that guys like Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt, Nabil Crismatt, or Jeff McNeil steps up, but there is a reason they aren’t ranked in the MLB top 100 prospects.

Now, try to imagine that the trading of both Thor and Jake brings you two solid outfielders, a killer catcher, and two more rotation starters…

This has gotten too long. I’ll stop here, but, in my humble opinion, you are on your way.