Mack’s Apples - Carter Stewart, xwOBA, Jacob deGrom, Griffin Conine, Roger Clemens

Baseball America’s  Top 500 Prospects –

    

       8 – (Last: 8):  Carter Stewart   HS RHP  School: Eau Gallie HS, Melbourne, Fla.

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 200 | B-T: R-R | Committed/Drafted: Mississippi State

Scouting Report: Over the summer, Stewart was known almost exclusively for his otherworldly curveball, which was a 70-grade offering at the time and routinely registered spin rates above 3,000 revolutions per minute. Stewart’s curveball was so impressive, in fact, that TrackMan honored the righthander at the Perfect Game All-America Classic in San Diego and said his breaking ball was among the most impressive pitches the company has ever tracked, at any level. At 6-foot-6 and 200 pounds, that performance alone was impressive. But this spring Stewart took a step forward, improving a fastball that once sat in the upper 80s to low 90s and has now reached 97-98 mph multiple times this spring, giving Stewart a chance at potentially two 70-grade pitches. On top of the stuff, Stewart brings impressive athleticism to the table and a good feel for the strike zone. Scouts have been impressed with how consistently Stewart is able to land his sweeping, low-80s breaker for a strike, especially considering the massive depth the pitch possesses. Stewart has also shown the ability to manipulate the offering depending on the situation. That sort of feel leaves some scouts projecting a changeup that could be at least average down the line. Stewart has thrown a changeup at times, but given his other offerings, he hasn’t needed to use a third pitch enough to give scouts much of a feel for it. An impressive golfer as well, Stewart could have a collegiate future on the links, but his skill on the mound should prevent him from ever reaching Mississippi State’s campus in the first place.

How I Use xwOBA -

           

Judge concludes by questioning the utility of xwOBA for pitchers, as it is no better than FIP, a metric which has been around for quite some time. I agree with Judge’s conclusion that xwOBA for pitchers doesn’t tell us much more than FIP in terms of pitcher value or predictability, though I disagree that the statistic lacks utility. FIP and xwOBA are bound to be similar: both use strikeouts and walks as inputs, with FIP using homers as a proxy for batted balls and xwOBA using the launch angle and exit velocity of all batted balls. Further supporting Judge’s point is my own research, in which I found that, while xwOBA on contact was somewhat descriptive, it had little predictive value. Like Judge, I also found that FIP and xwOBA operated similarly in terms of predictive ability and reliability. Due to those findings, if I am looking at pitcher performance, I’m likely to rely on FIP, which is on the easy-to-understand ERA scale, as opposed to xwOBA.

Brooks Baseball: - 

Jacob deGrom –    His fourseam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has less armside movement than typical and has well above average velo. His slider is thrown extremely hard, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders and has less than expected depth. His change is thrown extremely hard, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has some natural sink to it. His sinker is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has well above average velo and has less armside run than typical. His curve is much harder than usual and has little depth.

OF Griffin Conine could be a draft day steal –

     

     The son of former big leaguer Jeff Conine, Griffin had a monster sophomore season in 2017. He hit .295/.425/.546 with 13 home runs in 218 at-bats, and added nine stolen bases for good measure. He followed that performance with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League. Entering the 2018 season, Conine was expected to sit firmly within the first round, with a chance at moving into the top 10 (or even five) with another big season.

The opposite seems to have happened. Conine struggled out of the gate and has all but fallen off draft boards. He isn’t appearing on any mock drafts, and has fallen significantly on multiple draft prospect rankings list. Though his numbers have rebounded — he’s now hitting .280/.406/.602 with 15 homers — his stock seemingly hasn’t.

Roger Clemens’ youngest son is now one of the top sluggers in college baseball –

       

    Nothing in his first two years at Texas suggested Kody Clemens would blossom into one of the top sluggers in the nation.

The youngest son of seven-time Cy Young Award winner Roger Clemens has hit six of his Big 12-leading 19 home runs in the last seven games for the regular-season champion Longhorns (37-18). The junior second baseman also leads the conference with a .703 slugging percentage and 147 total bases. He ranks in the top 10 in three other offensive categories.