Tom Brennan - DOMINIC SMITH AND DILSON HERRERA
Dominic Smith is the latest wunderkind in the Mets system.
About 3 years ago, it was Dilson Herrera.
Acquired in a trade, Herrera showed good ability in the minors, at a very young age, to hit for power and average as a relatively little guy. Some speed too, albeit not a burner. He looked to be a possible future star.
He got to the Mets as a very young guy for a major league trial run, where he struggled. Why not? He was a Met.
Dilson, as you all know, went thereafter to the Reds in the Jay Bruce deal.
In his minor league career to date, in 2,549 at bats, he has hit .295/.357/.460.
In his Mets trial, he was up 149 times, hitting .215/.308/.383.
At age 24, he is currently in the Reds minors, having a decent season.
Dominic Smith is soon to turn 23, and he has similar results:
2,168 at bats in the minors, .300/.367/.432.
In his Mets trial in 2017, in168 at bats, just .196/.261/.393.
As I said, the two have very similar #'s, and both are stuck in the minors right now.
The question is:
Will either become a solid major leaguer?
My guess is:
They have similar chances of success (or lack thereof).
At least according to their similar numbers.
Astounding, pounding, resounding Peter Alonso in his first 600 minor league at bats has had 46 doubles, 38 homers, 118 RBIs and hit .310. Makes me ask: IS THAT IT?
Who would you want as your next first baseman - Dominic Smith, Peter Alonso - or Dilson Herrera - I imagine, after all, that Herrera is available. The choice, as always, is yours.
All things considered, it does not appear from reports that defensively Alonso is ready to play first base in the Major leagues. Thats a very low defensive standard. Personally i dislike the DH.
ReplyDeleteright now Id go with Smith. if he cant hack it, on to the next. But id just prefer they stop with these 35 year olds who are on the ml minimum for a reason.
Always seeking lightning in a bottle are the Mets.
DeleteIs there some team that is not seeking lightning in a bottle?
ReplyDeleteRobb, the Yankees have an entire power plant - they don't need lightning in a bottle.
ReplyDeletePersonally, as a fan, I don't want Alonso called up right now - I would like to see him another month, to firm up his progress. That includes his D, where he has substantially improved over 2016 and 2017.
Smith doesn't have to prove anything to me, but at this point he has to prove to me, as a fan, that the comparison to Herrera is too negative, that he really is better than Dilson, who is not playing for the low-flying Reds presumably because they think that despite their struggles, he is still not good enough to help.
As a fan, I hope Smith ignites starting today.
My vote is for Alonso. Although I wish for success for Dom, too - so we can flip him for a needed piece.
ReplyDeleteErica, it is too bad that both Pete and Smith lack the dexterity to play anywhere other than 1B, although they are at least briefly trying the Dom in the OF experiment.
ReplyDeleteDom has disappointed so far this year. I really hoped last year's 9 homers in his MLB debut was a sign of big things once he lost weight and adjusted.
But he is just an average hitter in the PCL this year, if that:
45th in batting average, 70th in RBIs (Wilfredo Tovar and signed-after-our-two-catchers-got-hurt Johnny Monell have more), and only 2 homers in about 170 plate appearances.
I start to wonder if he is depressed. He needs to just attack.
Dominic Smith played outfield, first base and pitched in high school. So outfield isn't new and is good decision to play him there to increase value for the team, and help his big league career.
ReplyDeleteThe reports thus far of his defensive potential are good and his body has immensely changed from obese to fit making him appropriate for outfield.
At the plate he'll be fine - including power. There are mechanical adjustments he needs to make - watch his swing. He jumps and lunges when he swings, taking his lower body out of it. That can and should be fixed.
Regarding Alonso, his defense has significantly improved and he's most certainly on Mets radar. Perhaps Alonso will also achieve defensive versatility once good D at first base is locked in enough for him to work on third base which he has played as amateur.
I see a path for both Smith and Alonso on the Mets at same time. Two young players worth keeping. Defensive versatility is key.
LongTimeFan, I sure hope you are right that Dom can play the outfield. I did know he played it in HS, but HS and the majors are two entirely different things. I agree that one would think shedding the weight and enhanced strength and conditioning will make him somewhat quicker and thus able to be an adequate OF.
ReplyDeleteI hope he can fix his hitting.
Pete made so many errors at 1B in 2016 and 2017 that I believe if he now nails first base defensively, to the point of being close to average, they won't tinker with trying to make him switch to 3B- just my guess. if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Personally i think he'd do better to try to master 3rd base as Frazier on just a two-year deal and Wright is on his customary spot on the DL. Jf he is, as many have claimed, a Gild Glove level player at 1st, then he should be able to master 3rd
ReplyDeleteReese, that is a good perspective.
ReplyDeleteI look at other 3B candidates internally, though, and my first choice is one that no one else wants to here: Jeff McNeil.
Are you convinced that Smith will be better than McNeil? I am not.
Also, I am puzzled with Desmond Lindsay - he seems to be drawing a lot of walks, but where is that 5 tool power? No homers in over 130 plate appearances, and only 5 doubles and 2 homers,.218/.344/.300.
ReplyDeleteBroken record that I am, McNeil is .328/.403/.715, strikes out a lot less, and is better at stealing bases.
So just because Lindsay was a 2nd rounder, are we to downplay 12th round Jeff while playing up the 2nd rounder?
Thomas Brennan.
ReplyDeleteWe haven't yet seen Dom play outfield, but Mets AAA manager says he looks athletic out and has made several throws home including nailing someone at the plate.
And if you look at video of Dom on the bases this season, his foot speed is fine for outfield. He also has strong arm. In high school he was pitching with 90 mph+ velocity.
And keep in mind, it's only been 5 years since Dom played outfield in high school. Yes, I agree, High School isn't the pros, but you can get good idea of player tools at the time. Keep in mind, Dom was drafted at around 195, 200 pounds, and a scouting report that's available from the rating and testing organization, Perfect Game, gave him thumbs up for outfield ability heading into pro ball.
His foot speed testing at the time also came in slightly above average.
So what's unfortunate is that Dom wasted a number of years after getting drafted, becoming obese and out of shape. And that's our primary impression of him 2014-2017. Slow guy, fat, undisciplined, bad fit on the bases and outfield.
But now we must change our perspective to the rebuilt and physically restored Dom Smith as he works to change his reputation.
He should be able to become a competent big league outfielder and split time defensively between first and the corners for the next decade and a half. Not just competent, but good.
Regarding Alonso, I'm inclined to agree he's not the best candidate to work at in light of prior defensive issues at first he's still in progress of fixing.
However, at some point, his first base skills will be solid and consistent enough for the Mets to consider expanding his defensive versatility. This is a major league trend - expanding versatility. I strongly doubt his defense at multiple positions would be weaker than Daniel Murphy's and Wilmer Flores's trek around the diamond. With work, players become serviceable enough for versatility, and improve beyond. With 4-5 man benches, versatility is essential. Peter Alonso played third base in high school and freshman year in College.
To Thomas Brennan and Reese Kaplan:
ReplyDeleteSmith throws lefty thus is not third base candidate.
As for Jeff McNeil, We're all thrilled with his 2018 performance. Should he stay healthy and continue to rake, he could potentially be a third base option although right now is probably viewed more as utility player - at least up until recently.
Also, don't forget about David Thompson. He's injured now but plays a solid enough third base with enough raw power to factor in the future.
Long Time Can, definitely brain locked on Smith's throwing arm. Being a lefty myself, I can't get lefties wrong!
ReplyDeleteGreat insights on Smith...I hope you are right on all counts.
I only partially fault him on the weight thing. The organization should never have allowed him to get that heavy. As a first rounder, he deserved extra monitoring, diet help, etc. If a guy like him or Rosario is unprepared in any significant aspect, it is their job to practically force them to do the right things.
Long Time Fan, on McNeil, I also saw him as a utility guy until he added 30 lbs of muscle and re-created himself. Maybe that is all he will eventually be, but i now think he can be a starter, if given the opportunity. His power has been a game changer for him.
ReplyDeleteTJ Rivera is out there eventually as well.
ReplyDeleteA trademark impotent Mets loss.
ReplyDeleteWe've seen this painful crap way too many time over the years.