Jack Flynn - Observations

The New York Mets signed 13 free agents last off-season, five of whom were on the 2018 Opening Day roster. A sixth free agent pickup – Jason Vargas – would’ve broken camp with the team if not for a broken hand suffered toward the end of Spring Training.

Not one of those six players has performed up to expectations, one of the many sad stories of this lost campaign. Vargas, Anthony Swarzak, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier have been both injury-prone and ineffective. Adrian Gonzalez was released before the All-Star break; Jose Reyes somehow has avoided a similar fate.

It’s a natural instinct to question the baseball acumen of a front office that brings in so many free agents and gets poor performances from each and every one of them. The criticism would be deserved, of course; each of these players had red flags that the Mets ignored or downplayed to sign each man at prices the club was quite comfortable paying at the time.

In retrospect, however, it seems that a surprising number of last year’s free agent signings have resulted in unsuccessful performances in 2018. Simply put, the Mets aren’t the only team with buyer’s remorse.

New York’s biggest regret, undoubtedly, is the Jay Bruce contract. Bruce was given the only free agent contract with three guaranteed years ($11 million in 2018), and surely the Mets could’ve signed a minor league free agent that would’ve exceeded Bruce’s current .212/.292/.321 line. The signing is doubly painful considering the success of free agent signees like JD Martinez ($23.75 million in 2018) and Lorenzo Cain ($14 million in 2018).

Martinez was never a fit, frankly – he needed to go to an American League team where he could DH. Cain, however, was a much better option – a top-flight defensive player in center field that could bat at the top of the order. Cain is a year older than Bruce and earned a contract with two more guaranteed years, but somehow the small-market Milwaukee Brewers were able to scrape enough pennies together to sign him 10 days after the Mets opted for Bruce instead.

What’s more, the 2018 season has seen Brandon Nimmo’s emergence take place at the same time as Yoenis Cespedes’s descent. Had the Mets signed Cain instead of Bruce, their outfield would consist of Michael Conforto, Cain and Nimmo. It wouldn’t have been enough to stave off the collapse, of course, but Mets fans would feel much better about their 2019 prospects with Cain instead of Bruce.

The other five free agents have achieved varying degrees of failure in a Mets uniform this season, but criticizing their signings is somewhat more complicated. Unlike the obvious Cain-Bruce comparison, it’s a little more difficult to find comparable players the Mets should’ve signed instead.

Vargas signed a two-year deal in mid-February. At the time, the Mets already had Jacob de Grom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler as rotation options. Only de Grom and Syndergaard were locks; signing a veteran mid-rotation starter to push the other guys was a perfectly reasonable play.

The first instinct, of course, is to wonder why the Mets didn’t pursue the very best starters available on the market. This would’ve meant offers to Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. However, the Cubs have gotten just eight starts from Darvish this season, and likely won’t have their $25 million man back for another month. Arrieta has pitched fairly well for the Phillies, but he is making $30 million this year and is averaging less than six innings a start. Neither has provided value commensurate with contract.

The Mets could’ve dipped into the second tier of free agent starters, guys like Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn or Tyler Chatwood. All three have been a disaster for their new teams, however, and only Lynn was signed to a one-year deal. The Twins are paying Lynn twice as much money as the Mets are paying Vargas this season, but have the benefit of letting him walk in November.

Swarzak’s signing was questionable from the beginning. His 2017 campaign was by far the best of his eight seasons, and he seemed an obvious candidate for regression. That said, go down the last of available free agent relievers and figure out who would’ve been a better fit.

Wade Davis? Not with the ability to command $17 million AAV and Jeurys Familia (remember him?) already slated to be the closer. Brandon Morrow? He’s saved 21 games for the Cubs, but everyone knew he would end up on the DL and now he might be out for the season. Greg Holland? He’s been an unmitigated disaster in St. Louis, and he is earning as much this year as Swarzak will over two years.

At the time, much was made of Addison Reed’s strange decision to take a two-year contract from Minnesota. That certainly hasn’t worked out for Reed, as he has struggled on a team going nowhere in the American League Central. Reed’s success in New York was never guaranteed to continue, but Mets fans would probably prefer having him over Swarzak.

Frazier’s only real free agent alternative was Mike Moustakas. At the time, Moustakas appeared headed for a five-year contract with a value approaching $100 million, which would’ve been a ridiculous overpay for a player of his caliber. 29 other MLB teams agreed, and Moustakas ended up going back to his original team for only about one-third of the salary he’d be making had he just accepted Kansas City’s qualifying offer.

The Mets could’ve tried to convince Zack Cozart to switch positions for them, or asked Eduardo Nunez to stand at third base and try not to hurt himself. Again, neither option would’ve been a successful one.

Let’s take a step back for a moment. The Reyes signing isn’t even worth analyzing for alternatives – a $2 million utility infielder has no meaningful impact on any major league team’s payroll, and if a player with a similar contract has outperformed Reyes, chalk it up to an unlucky break.

The Mets went for cost savings with Vargas, Swarzak, Frazier and Bruce. Given the alternatives, this turned out to be a perversely “successful” strategy, in that the Mets saved anywhere from $15 to $20 million in salary this season by signing the players they did in place of the presumed high quality alternatives. Given that Adrian Gonzalez only commanded the major league minimum from the Mets, one could argue that they could’ve put $15 to $20 million in savings toward a top flight first baseman instead.

This would’ve put them in the conversation for Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana. Given that the Mets had Dominic Smith in Triple-A and Peter Alonso in Double-A, it’s reasonable to see a strategy in which they pursued players like Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso or even Lucas Duda on a shorter contract instead.

Hosmer has struggled in his first year in San Diego, and Santana has done the same in Philly. Neither have earned their money this season. Morrison has predictably bombed with the Twins, and it’s hard to imagine that Mets fans would’ve considered a Duda reunion to be a positive development. Only Alonzo has had a decent season, and the Indians are on the hook for at least $9 million in 2019.

None of this is meant to be a straightforward defense of the Mets’ decision-making process last winter. They should’ve aggressively pursued Cain instead of Bruce, knowing that Brandon Nimmo was a hedge against injury or ineffectiveness from any of the three projected starters. Swarzak was almost certainly going to fall flat, and Gonzalez was nearly as likely to flop.

The Mets made all the wrong decisions. There’s no getting around that. What’s truly scary is to think that, if they had actually tried to spend on premium free agent talent, they’d likely be an even bigger mess right now.