Reese Kaplan -- 2019 Salary Obligations Hamstring Flexibility

With 2018 over by the end of May, it’s never too soon to start looking ahead to what the 2019 season could be like.  There are an awful lot of “ifs” that need to be addressed as you try to predict which way and how the club should proceed.  Let’s start with the most obvious one.

Will the Mets actually go outside the organization to find a new GM?

Past history of the club suggests that no, they will not do so.  They are very much a club whose management style is to embrace the familiar and towards that end they have two in-house candidates from among the Three Stooges from which to pick.  (Bringing back Omar would be a sign of major egg on the team’s face after how they handled his firing…that one won’t be happening).

J.P. Ricciardi had some glowing moments in Toronto but there were times he was the subject of banners posted prominently in the stands calling for his head.  With the Mets he’s been the most inconspicuous of the current Larry, Moe and Curly triumvirate, and taking a back seat to Fred and Jeffy might seem to be a major qualification for the job.  However, given the clear lack of his public voice during this period of vast uncertainty, I can’t see them going in this direction.

John Ricco is the one who scares me because he’s become the defacto spokesperson for the Stooges.  Mack has suggested he’s been the one pulling the strings for the past year or more during Alderson’s withdrawal due to his health.  If that’s the case, he’s the absolute worst candidate for the job as he’s been responsible for the downfall of a once great franchise.  He followed the failed 2017 path of taking 2^nd and 3^rd tier prospects and refusing to pay down salaries when dumping free-agents-to-be.  For that reason he’s probably the frontrunner as it makes the least sense (and that’s what we’ve come to expect from this organization).   

Now they did zag when we fully expected them to zig after the merciful end to the Terry Collins years.  Most everyone expected they would go with a veteran mediocrity to be the new field manager for the team, yet they surprised nearly everyone by selecting Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway to take the reins.  Mickey has been a work in progress and the growing pains have shown on several occasions.  However, to be fair he’s had to deal without Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, AJ Ramos, Anthony Swarzak, Rafael Montero, Travis d’Arnaud, TJ Rivera, Todd Frazier, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and others for major chunks of the season.  Still, he’s shown a lot of the same mistakes of his predecessor but both his price tag and his contract status suggest he’ll be back.

Given that surprising development last off-season, do they have it within themselves to surprise the fanbase once again by going outside the organization for someone who understands that home runs and strikeouts are not the only measures of success?  I’ll bet no, but hope that I’m wrong.

So, if we assume there’s a new sheriff in town (be it a current Stooge or a new Shemp or Curly Joe), how would you address trying to revamp the team for 2019?  Let’s first look at the clear cut and firm payroll obligations: 

Yoenis Cespedes	$29
David Wright	$15
Jay Bruce	$13
Todd Frazier	$  9
Juan Lagares	$  9
Jason Vargas	$  8
Anthony Swarzak	$  8

That’s $91 million before you even look any further.  Yes, they will likely receive 75% of David Wright’s salary and 50% of Yoenis Cespedes’ salary back in insurance payments, but as we’ve seen in the past you must count their salary against the entire payroll AND they don’t reinvest that recouped money into the team.

The next group includes the arbitration eligible players whose raises must be estimated and factored into the equation:

Jenrry Mejia	$1.8	$  1.5
Jacob deGrom	$7.4	$11.5
Wilmer Flores	$3.4	$  4.2
Noah Syndergaard	$3.0	$  4.5
Zack Wheeler	$1.9	$  3.8

Here’s I’m figuring Mejia will again get the maximum 30% cut allowed by the Player’s Association, deGrom, Syndergaard and Wheeler all getting substantial bumps, with Flores getting a modest one.  That’s another $24 million in salary obligation for a total of $115 million already on your first 12 players. 

Next you have the players scheduled to earn an average of $1 million or less for next season:

Michael Conforto	$1.5
Kevin Plawecki	$0.6
TJ Rivera	$0.6
Rafael Montero	$0.6
Brandon Nimmo	$0.6
Steven Matz	$0.6
Seth Lugo	$0.6
Robert Gsellman	$0.6
Drew Smith	$0.6
Paul Sewald	$0.6
Bobby Wahl	$0.6
Amed Rosario	$0.6
Jeff McNeil	$0.6
Luis Guillorme	$0.6
Peter Alonso	$0.6

That’s roughly another $10 million in salary obligation, bringing the total to $125 million.  That’s a total of 27 players, but at least two – Wright and Cespedes – will start the season on the DL.  So if you use the 2018 and 2017 total payrolls as guidelines, the club will have between $25 and $30 million to spend in new talent. 

Bear in mind there are a few conspicuous absense from this list.  I think Travis d'Arnaud may be a non-tender candidate and the available free agents -- Jose Bautista, Jerry Blevins, Austin Jackson, Devin Mesoraco, AJ Ramos and Jose Reyes will all be allowed to depart.  

Here’s where it gets tricky.  Obviously the Wright and Cespedes contracts are immovable.  The Vargas deal and the Bruce deal are neck and neck for albatross status.  Frazier and Swarzak are not going to be easy to deal away even with just a single year of salary obligation given how much time they’ve missed and how poorly they’ve performed overall.  Lagares is not worth $9 million even if he’s completely healthy (which never happens).  So what would you do?

A lot depends on whether they remain in-house or go outside for a GM.  Even the Mets would acknowledge in going outside that they must allow the new architect SOME latitude in reshaping the roster he inherited.  Going in-house relieves them from this obligation which is why I’m betting that Ricco is the man they choose.

Personally, I would attempt that old strategy of tying potential to albatross in looking to make deals.  You want to take a flyer on former first rounders Dom Smith and Gavin Cecchini?  Well, in order to get them you have to take on Jay Bruce – that kind of deal.  Well, that’s the idea, though the players in question may be different.  Perhaps Tomas Nido’s .290 season in AA is the player another team covets.  Maybe you can dupe someone into wanting multiple hard throwing albeit wild relievers…nah, no one’s that dumb, right?

As dismal as things look for 2019, remember that in 2020 (assuming the albatrosses are still around), you will be done with Vargas, Swarzak’s gone, Frazier’s gone and Lagares is gone.  Jay Bruce, David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes will be in their final contract years.  It may well be that the new Stooge quietly punts the 2019 season and invests more in scouting and minor league development rather than trying to apply 2^nd tier band-aids to the major league roster as they've done throughout Sandy Alderson's tenure. 

I think a hybrid approach is needed which would include the heretofore shunned option of paying down existing sunk cost salary obligations to get back prospects.  That kind of long term thinking could pay dividends in the future when you will then have the money available to entice free agents into the fold with a new regime in charge. 

So now you're the GM in charge with the payroll obligations outlined above.  What would you do in 2019?