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8/25/18

Reese Kaplan -- Since the Mets Don't Care About Defense...



While everyone gets on Sandy Alderson for the contracts handed out this past off-season to Jason Vargas, Anthony Swarzak and Jay Bruce which resulted in poor production, somehow no one seems nearly as upset by Todd Frazier’s minimal contributions.  Yes, he’s had some injuries and if you extrapolated his numbers they wouldn’t be awful.  In fact, hitting in the .230s is a step above what he delivered for the White Sox and Yankees last season.  At $8 million this year, he took a cut from the $12 million he was earning.  Next year he’s on tap for $9 million and performing at 2 WAR you could certainly argue he’s good value.


In roughly the same amount of ABs Wilmer Flores has provided the same offense with a higher batting average.  More importantly, he’s showing that with regular playing time those number have improved dramatically – something we’ve seen the past as well.  Wilmer is earning $3.4 million this year and arbitration eligible for the first time.  At 1.3 WAR, he’s going to get a pretty big bump in pay.  By numbers he is rated as a -2 defensively (slightly below average) at 1B though the eyeball test may disagree.  He is someone Manager Mickey Callaway has singled out as needing to be in there every day because he takes quality ABs.

Therein lies the problem.  The Mets’ highest rated near term prospect is Pete Alonso who plays 1st base.  Then there’s Jay Bruce having worked out at 1B.  Then there’s Dom Smith whose best position is 1st base.

Well, what about 2nd?  Jeff McNeil is certainly making the case that the Mets should have promoted him the second Todd Frazier went down with an injury, but hey, we all know how critical it was to get Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista more playing time, right?

So, going into 2019 you have an interesting problem.  Assume they hold Pete Alonso down for the first 3-4 weeks of the season “to work on his defense” – at least that’s what the Cubbies got the Players’ Union to swallow when they didn’t promote Kris Bryant to start the year.  Who plays 1st for that interval doesn’t much matter.  However, once Alonso arrives (miraculously having dramatically improved his defense in just 3-4 weeks), who goes where?


Just to add gasoline to the fire, there are a number of folks campaigning for the Mets to reunite with hands-of-stone Daniel Murphy because he can hit the ball well.  Wait…isn’t that the very same profile of Wilmer Flores – someone who can hit but doesn’t seem to comport himself well while wearing a leather on his hand?  To wit, Murphy ranged from -7 to -9 as a second baseman while playing for the Mets.  Will he improve with age?  He’d be 34 next season.  By contrast Wilmer Flores was nearly as lethal at 3B but at worst was a -3 at 2B. 

Many feel Wilmer’s best role (should he stay with the Mets) is as a supersub, getting ABs all around the diamond and coming off the bench.  Evidence has shown that he performs better when playing steadily.  Unlike others, he does not get “exposed” when he’s in the lineup on a daily basis. 


On Thursday I read the disheartening comment from a clearly flummoxed Terry II that perhaps they’re going to move McNeil around to see how he responds to a utility role.  WHAT???????????????

No, the answer seems obvious to me from both an economic standpoint and run production standpoint.  Once Alonso arrives, play Wilmer at 2B and shift McNeil to 3B.  While Todd Frazier still has not gotten the stink of failure on him that plagues many Mets’ acquisitions, peddle him and his reasonable contract to another club.  You’re only secure with him for one more year anyway, and better to trade someone a year too soon than a year too late.  Take the savings delta between his salary and Flores’ salary to address another need.  If Alonso struggles against certain righties, you still have Bruce (and Smith) available to play 1B.  You’re not going to find takers for Sandy’s mistakes (throw Juan Lagares in that mix, too), so you’d better start thinking about small savings wherever you can find them. 

17 comments:

  1. All all (similar to 'there there) this does is strengthen my claim that 2019 vs. 2018 is 'same as it ever was'.

    It will take until OD 2020 to start solving this

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  2. Odd, but if the Mets had not traded Familia, and with Nimmo soon to be back, this team is as good as all competitors in the division, in this writer's opinion.

    With Vargas sharp, the rotation is looking like a top 5 rotation. With McNeil, Nimmo, Bruce and Todd the offense is solid.

    Gsellman and Lugo (and Familia) - pen would be solid.

    Injuries have decimated the Mets 2 seasons running. Older dudes break down more.

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  3. Ross Adolph now has 12 triples in 53 games. Crazy. But Dunn sucked last night.

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  4. Don't forget Smith and Oswalt in the pen

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  5. There may be hope yet for Jacob Rhame in the pen, too. He was absolutely unhittable in the 4th game of the series with the Chihuahuas, striking out 5 of 6 faced and making the first place hitters look silly.

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  6. And, of course, our DSL favorite Jenrry Mejia.

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  7. Never did like the interest the Mets had for Frazier.

    The team had plenty of sub .250 players last year.

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  8. Had the same reaction to that Callaway comment as you did, Reese. How can they even consider such nonsense? McNeil should be a fixture at second for years to come -- he's even improved his fielding there in his short time in the majors -- and now they're going to start tinkering with him? Unbelievable. I said this -- maybe not here, but somewhere -- when he was hitting around .400 at Las Vegas, and it's time to say it again -- does this guy have to bat .500 to earn a full-time spot on this team? What is it with management? (Oh, I guess I just answered my own question.)

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  9. My 2019 Mets Lineup consists of 1B Alonso, 2B McNeil, SS Gimenez; 3B Rosario, LF Conforto, RF Nimmo, CF Lagares or Thomas;, C Trade or Free Agent/ Plawecki

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  10. The only place for Flores next year is as a utility infielder and DH during interleague play. His defense is atrocious on 2nd, SS, and 3rd and just plain bad on first. He doesn't hit with enough power or produce enough RBI's for first or 3rd unless your satisfied with 15-20 Hrs and 75 RBI's with a .275 AVG and .750 OPS. Frazier will give you better defense more power and RBI's with roughly the same OPS.
    Hopefully the new GM will be on same page a Callaway concerning good pitching with good defense (and better athletes). I love Flores heart and that he wants to be here but reality says he just not good enough to win with.

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  11. On Jeff McNeil

    Callaway is starting to earn my disagreement. McNeil is a rare thing to this NY Mets ball club, he is a professional hitter. Very few pass this way from within the organization I have noticed over the years.

    On Wilmer Flores

    He is playing a lot better especially at the plate. It's his defense that I am at times concerned with. Like when he did not line-up the right fielder's throw to the plate. He doesn't make too many mental errors playing, but is subject to them as he learns first base.

    To me, I like this tentative 25-man lineup the best: 1B Alonso 2B Gimenez SS Rosario 3B McNeil LF Cespedes CF Nimmo RF Kivlehan/Conforto Platoon C Wilson Ramos or Y. Grandal

    Bench: Maybe something like: OF Bruce and Conforto, INF Flores and C. Colon C Plawecki

    SP (6): 1. J. deGrom 2. Z. Wheeler 3. New Lefty Starter from outside organization 4. N. Syndergaard 5. C. Oswalt 6. Drew Smith

    RP(6): Left-handers: Daniel Zamora, Dave Roseboom, New Lefty Closer from outside organization. Right-handers: Tyler Bashlor, Ryder Ryan, Robert Gsellman.

    Have others too to look at in ST 2019 for the bullpen: B. Wahl, A. Swarzak,and Joshua Torres.

    Something like this anyway. You never know.


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  12. Mack:

    Normally, I would agree that it could take until 2020 before this all gets solved. But to me, it kind of depends who the new GM is coming in and whether or not the current manager and some of his coaches stay on for 2019. It could begin turning big time right out of 2019 ST. Would not amaze me.

    I like Jim Duquette as the new GM. But I am sure there are other good ones out there too. We'll see.

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  13. Anonymous -

    Are you kidding me?

    You think a new GM can solve the lack of pipeline talent above Kingsport?

    You think a new GM can move the bad contracts?

    You think the Mets can solve their problems with great trades for marginal chips?

    And do you think agents of any decent young free agent want his client to play for these bozos.

    I wish you could mail me what you are smoking, but it's illegal to do that.

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  14. Dear Mack:

    Glad to see that you are more chipper today Grandpa!

    Hope that you are feeling better too. Another new therapy I have wanted to mention to you, that you may have already explored. It's called "Cyber Knife." May want to check online if you are not already familiar with.

    Here are a few of my points regarding Mets baseball...

    Yes, there are veteran players here that cannot be eradicated because of their contracts and injury plagued 2018 seasons. We have to deal with it, no team is ever perfect.

    However, I do think that "ToddFodder" could be traded in the off season, if he is packaged right. Jay Bruce, I too banged up all season to move anywhere except maybe to an assisted living center or something. But that is not to say that after an entire off season, that he couldn't be rejuvenated and 100% once again. Let's all pray now. Simultaneous mass prayer can work!

    But yes, I think there is talent and hope above Lower A Ball here. I don't even follow below AA Rump Ponies actually. Too far off for me.

    Look at my suggestion one more time: 1B Peter Alonso (He needs to start on first base ST because we have not had a genuine HR first baseman in sometime. We need one now, more than ever. Righty hitting Peter Alonso with maybe Jay Bruce (a lefty hitter) backing him up. This would be my ideal.

    At second base, the Mets could go with Wilmer Flores, he's had a nice 2018. But I want stellar, I am stubborn that way. So why not bring Andres Gimenez into 2019 ST camp and see how he does there too. He is young, but he really did step up huge this 2018 season in Binghamton and has stated clearly that he wants to be a Mets star player. You know what Mack, I believe he could be. If not, then the Mets have Flores and that is not bad either! Second is covered.

    Shortstop is Amed. End of story. He has my full respect. He has played a great second half.

    Third Base to me is Jeff McNeil. He is as good a hitter as any I have seen come up to the NY Mets. He can make contact, move runners, hit homeruns, place his hits to all three gap fields. His power game will only improve as he moves towards age 30 too. He will be successful wherever the Mets put him. I know this.

    Alonso, Gimenez, Rosario, McNeil, Nimmo are the future for this Mets team. My point is simply to start this future now, if possible. I think that is what the fans want to see happen. These are the best players.

    What else Big Mack?

    Gimenez, Rosario, and McNeil are way above average stolen base threats. The speed angle is covered right away ST 2019. Just need the power bats to meld in with it. And Mack, this is crucially important because if the Mets can solve their bullpen (finally) and there rotation stays equal to 2018, it's all in place for a run 2019.

    "The Outfield"

    I have no clue on Yoenis Cespedes feet. But I want Yoenis back. Yoenis still has another foot operation awaiting him. So we will have to wait and see. It's 50/50% right now on him getting back 2019. But I am a dreamer. We need that power bat of Cespedes.

    Center is Brandon Nimmo. He covers the position and is fast like deer also. His hitting can be spectacular, we have seen this. But he has to solve some of his strikeouts. Brandon is a rookie and we have to give him time to fully adjust to the outpitches of his opponent pitchers. He will.

    Michael Conforto, to me, took a step backwards in 2018. Maybe it is because of last season's shoulder injury? Not sure. But to me I think right field is covered with Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and "The Sleeper" I see in Patrick Kivlehan, now with 19 or 20 homeruns on the season down at AAA Vegas.

    The catcher spot is a little bleak right now. I like Wilson Ramos starting with Kevin Plawecki backing him up for 2019. Kevin's power stroke is not fully arrived yet, but will.

    Nido and Mazeika are not ready. Can still invite both to ST 2019. But right now, they are not fully formed clay yet.

    All the best Big Mack! I hope you get better really soon!

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  15. Also Mack:

    I may be an eternal optimist with this team. I admit it, I may be. But with the talent that is here right now, many mentioned in my above post, I really do believe that this could turn around for the better on a dime. This off season.

    So how you ask?

    Winter Ballers...

    Field Players: Alonso, Gimenez, Conforto, Mazeika.
    Pitchers: Roseboom, Torres, Ryan, G. Bautista, Oswalt and if anyone can hear me, Drew Smith to be a starter. (It's so obvious to me. And the Mets have other relievers available that are good too to cover the bullpen.)

    These nine.

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  16. After Terry leaves, can I have that job?

    Don't laugh Mack, I want it!

    (I do, I do, I do)

    And I'll only ask for half of what Terry made too!
    So tell your friend Jeff W.

    LOL

    You be good my friend. And never ever give up!

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  17. Mets hitting now. Zach Wheeler on the mound. There is a semblance of a bullpen now, I think. Plus, if they have to, both Dave and Mickey could come in too, in a pinch! Looks favorable.

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