Tom Brennan - JEFF MCNEIL VS. ALL THE OTHERS

Tom Brennan - JEFF MCNEIL VS. ALL THE OTHERS

Jeff McNeil was thought of as a prospect at the start of the season by very few, me among them.

I saw a guy who missed most of 2016 and 2017 due to injuries, but who was an excellent, low power, high contact hitter with speed prior to 2016, who had bulked up to add power.

I figured if he could stay healthy and play with 30 more pounds of muscle than when he first signed, that he could surprise a lot of people.

SURPRISE!

Jeff hit .342/.411/.617 in 88 minor league games  earlier this year (SURPRISE!) and got called up.

Since he got called up, 100 plate appearances, hitting a tremendous .326/.388/.472, with just 10 Ks.

SURPRISE!

So, how does Jeff compare to others in Mets history, right out of the chute.  Most really seem to struggle, but a few did exceptionally well early on, that I can recall.

MIKE VAIL: after hitting .342/.394/.494 in the minors in 1975, up he came, and in his first 101 plate appearances, he hit .344/.377/.515 with 17 Ks.  Pretty comparable to McNeil's start...but after his early explosion, Vail never did much.

ERIC CAMPBELL: a hot hitter suddenly in the minors in 2013 and 2014, hitting .314 in 120 Vegas games in 2013 and .355 in 33 games in 2014, Eric stayed hot when called up, hitting .343/.385/.455 in his first 99 at bats.  

He, however, fanned 27 times over that span, a clear indicator that the hitting surge might be short-lived.  And it certainly was, as he hit just .185 in his subsequent 339 at bats in the majors, with a high 89 Ks.  

He, in short, was a righty bat who got figured out and could not hit mostly righty MLB pitching.  McNeil has the advantage of going lefty vs righty in most of his games.

KEVIN MITCHELL: I could not find game logs, but using monthly splits stats for Mitchell, in his first 139 major league at bats, he hit a terrific .352.  The Mets, concerned with his character issues, parted ways early in his career, and Mitchell ended up with 234 homers, 760 RBIs, and a .284 lifetime average, including 1989 when he hit 47 homers and drove in 125 runs.  The last time he edged over 400 plate appearances was age 30, a cautionary reminder when considering signing big hitters with warning signs when reaching that age.

DARRYL STRAWBERRY: He greatly struggled early on - similar to Mitchell, I could not readily find game logs for the Straw Man, to get to exactly 100 PAs, but he struggled early on, hitting .211 (33 for 156) with 55 Ks early on.  The greatness nonetheless was expected to blossom, and it did - unfortunately, so did the character flaws during his playing career that short-circuited what could have been a great career.

JOSE REYES: Debuting 2 days before his 20th birthday, he hit .229/.230/.344 in 2003 in his first 100 plate appearances as a rushed, spindly kid.  Fifteen years later, with quite a few fine years in between, he is hitting like it is 2003 again, meaning NOT GOOD.

DAVID WRIGHT: Back in 2004, when all was bright and hopeful for David, he hit .265/.301/.449 in his first 100 PAs with 16 Ks after a fine minor league stint at the start of that season.

DANIEL MURPHY: The man fans like to compare McNeil to got off to a roaring MLB start in 2008...in the game he crossed 100 plate appearances, he was at .366/.448/.549, the best start of all those above, including McNeil and 15 Ks.  Prior to that in 2008, in the minors as a 23 year old, he hit .315/.379/.493 in 99 games.

All things considered, I think that McNeil's high contact, low K rate puts him more into the Murphy/Wright/Mitchell category, and hence that his future success is likely.  

Time will tell, but so far, the flaws just have not showed up at all for McNeil in 2018.  

If I had to pick the best comp for McNeil out of the above group, I go with Daniel Murphy - which would be awesome if he can be Daniel Murphy II.

Did I leave out any guys in Mets history that you can think of that got off to a blistering start with the bat?  Let us know.