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8/22/18

Tom Brennan - JEFF MCNEIL VS. ALL THE OTHERS


Tom Brennan - JEFF MCNEIL VS. ALL THE OTHERS

Jeff McNeil was thought of as a prospect at the start of the season by very few, me among them.

I saw a guy who missed most of 2016 and 2017 due to injuries, but who was an excellent, low power, high contact hitter with speed prior to 2016, who had bulked up to add power.

I figured if he could stay healthy and play with 30 more pounds of muscle than when he first signed, that he could surprise a lot of people.

SURPRISE!

Jeff hit .342/.411/.617 in 88 minor league games  earlier this year (SURPRISE!) and got called up.

Since he got called up, 100 plate appearances, hitting a tremendous .326/.388/.472, with just 10 Ks.

SURPRISE!

So, how does Jeff compare to others in Mets history, right out of the chute.  Most really seem to struggle, but a few did exceptionally well early on, that I can recall.

MIKE VAIL: after hitting .342/.394/.494 in the minors in 1975, up he came, and in his first 101 plate appearances, he hit .344/.377/.515 with 17 Ks.  Pretty comparable to McNeil's start...but after his early explosion, Vail never did much.

ERIC CAMPBELL: a hot hitter suddenly in the minors in 2013 and 2014, hitting .314 in 120 Vegas games in 2013 and .355 in 33 games in 2014, Eric stayed hot when called up, hitting .343/.385/.455 in his first 99 at bats.  

He, however, fanned 27 times over that span, a clear indicator that the hitting surge might be short-lived.  And it certainly was, as he hit just .185 in his subsequent 339 at bats in the majors, with a high 89 Ks.  

He, in short, was a righty bat who got figured out and could not hit mostly righty MLB pitching.  McNeil has the advantage of going lefty vs righty in most of his games.

KEVIN MITCHELL: I could not find game logs, but using monthly splits stats for Mitchell, in his first 139 major league at bats, he hit a terrific .352.  The Mets, concerned with his character issues, parted ways early in his career, and Mitchell ended up with 234 homers, 760 RBIs, and a .284 lifetime average, including 1989 when he hit 47 homers and drove in 125 runs.  The last time he edged over 400 plate appearances was age 30, a cautionary reminder when considering signing big hitters with warning signs when reaching that age.

DARRYL STRAWBERRY: He greatly struggled early on - similar to Mitchell, I could not readily find game logs for the Straw Man, to get to exactly 100 PAs, but he struggled early on, hitting .211 (33 for 156) with 55 Ks early on.  The greatness nonetheless was expected to blossom, and it did - unfortunately, so did the character flaws during his playing career that short-circuited what could have been a great career.

JOSE REYES: Debuting 2 days before his 20th birthday, he hit .229/.230/.344 in 2003 in his first 100 plate appearances as a rushed, spindly kid.  Fifteen years later, with quite a few fine years in between, he is hitting like it is 2003 again, meaning NOT GOOD.

DAVID WRIGHT: Back in 2004, when all was bright and hopeful for David, he hit .265/.301/.449 in his first 100 PAs with 16 Ks after a fine minor league stint at the start of that season.

DANIEL MURPHY: The man fans like to compare McNeil to got off to a roaring MLB start in 2008...in the game he crossed 100 plate appearances, he was at .366/.448/.549, the best start of all those above, including McNeil and 15 Ks.  Prior to that in 2008, in the minors as a 23 year old, he hit .315/.379/.493 in 99 games.

All things considered, I think that McNeil's high contact, low K rate puts him more into the Murphy/Wright/Mitchell category, and hence that his future success is likely.  

Time will tell, but so far, the flaws just have not showed up at all for McNeil in 2018.  

If I had to pick the best comp for McNeil out of the above group, I go with Daniel Murphy - which would be awesome if he can be Daniel Murphy II.


Did I leave out any guys in Mets history that you can think of that got off to a blistering start with the bat?  Let us know.

11 comments:

  1. Hi Tom. Mike Vail broke his ankle during the offeseason (I believe it was the offseason) after his September call-up, and was never the same player. Or even close.

    The guy you forgot to mention was Gregg Jeffries. Not sure what his first 100 AB numbers were, but i’m pretty sure that his numbers stand with anyone on that list.

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  2. Jeffries is a good one I totally forgot to list - thanks, Adam.

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  3. Adam...Yep. Looked Jeffries up...first 100 PAs as a Met, hit .368 with pop and just 5 Ks, after an amazing minor league career. WOW.

    In his first 3 full seasons, as a young Met, he hit .258, .283, and .272. Unsurprisingly, he blossomed after leaving the oppressive Mets, hitting .285, .342, .325, and .306 his first 4 ex-Mets seasons.

    Amazingly, he fanned just 348 times in 6,072 MLB plate appearances.

    Career ended at 32, another case showing why to avoid guys past their late 20's.

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  4. Although his first ABs were not with the Mets, you might want to look at another 2nd baseman who they ran out of town -- Jeff Kent.

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  5. Reese, Jeff Kent was yet another major faux pas for this organization run by Inspector Clouseau.

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  6. I texted Jeff this morning and said:

    "So... when are you going to do something?"

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  7. Mack, he did not get back and say, "I'm just getting warmed up?"

    Highest contact % in the entire major leagues! And I watched each of his 4 hits - a clinic in using the whole field, and (in his first at bat) busting it down the line for an infield hit that very few guys would have beat out.

    I'm very impressed. I guess you can tell.

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  8. Another ho-hum night for McNeil...triple, single, no Ks.

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  9. Steve Henderson had an excellent rookie season in 1977, though I don't know what his first 100 ABs were like. His first 100 games (well, 99, actually, and 398 PA) resulted in .297/.372/.480 with 12 HRs. I assume he came out of the box pretty hot to end up with those stats, though it's not necessarily the case.

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  10. Henderson's start wasn't anything special. About a month after he joined the team in the Seaver trade on June 15th, he started to catch fire and hit .300 for the first time since his first couple of weeks -- when his average was fluctuating regularly (as they do) -- on July 25th. From then on he never dipped below .290 and got as high as .318. He had a really nice August, but was probably past his 100th at bat by then. Good rookie season, but wasn't putting up extraordinary numbers in his first 100 ABs.

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  11. 10 Big Questions. But be forewarned here, I do not have the answers to any of them.

    Question 1:

    When does it click with the 2018 NY Mets, that their bullpen is nowhere near good enough and they cannot keep sending in AAAA relievers late into games while trying to preserve a win?

    Yesterday was roof jumping material, and clearly illustrates this point I think. Relievers coming in yesterday (innings 8) are not late inning relievers.

    Question 2:

    Is lefty closer Andrew Miller, whose contract is up at the end of 2018, not a possibility here for the Mets in 2019? I know he is 33 years old. I know he can get hurt sometimes. But a really good lefty closer is so very exceedingly hard to find outside of the organization right now.

    I like Jerry Blevins and Daniel Zamora, but a lefty closer would go well with them.

    Question 3:

    Is it a totally crazy idea (could be) that the NY Mets infield in 2019 could conceivably be: 1B Peter Alonso 2B Andres Gimenez SS Amed Rosario 3B Jeff McNeil? Or am I way off on this? Who knows.

    Question 4:

    Am I the only humanoid on planet earth right now (probably), that could see Drew Smith starting next season after a successful Winter Ball campaign to fine tune him? The kid has a nice repertoire of pitches, appears very baseball savvy, stays calm, and throws a nice tight heater and curve already. I have seen the future.

    The Mets really do have decent MiLB young reliever coverage down on their farm (Ryder Ryan, Eric Hanhold, Dave Roseboom, maybe Gerson Bautista too, oh my!) But starting pitching? Really only Justin Dunn perhaps. Might be nice to see two starter kids heading into 2019 Spring Training. That is exactly what the 1990's Atlanta Braves did each season.

    Does not matter if all four excellent veterans here now are healthy heading into Spring Training either, because they all throw so hard and so often with the heater, that arm tightness and even serious injury is always going to be possible.

    Question 5:

    Is SNY's Jim Duquette in the NY Mets GM hunt right now? Not sure and have no way of knowing actually. But the guy is obviously intelligent and baseball knowledgeable. But would he be interested, I'm not sure.

    Question 6:

    Is it smart to have two or three strikeout outfielders in the same one outfield? How does a team tweak this? Glasses?

    Question 7:

    Do the NY Mets have a contingency plan in place in the event that some other team beats them to acquiring free agent catcher Wilson Ramos in the off season? Good catchers are so very rare in MLB today. Wilson is a free agent at the end of 2018. I guess so is Yasmani Grandal too. (Hmm)

    Question 8:

    What about a true six-man rotation beginning right in 2019 Spring Training? It's been talked about since Jerry Manual. Holds some merit saving arms.

    Question 9: (This is my favorite question)

    When are we ever going to see Mr. Met and Mrs. Met have a "Baby Met Jr." with the small baseball head and all? The Mets' kid fans would probably love that. Could introduce the tike being driven around the Citi Field diamond in the golf cart!

    Question 10:

    This is just me, so temper your laughter with this one because I am probably the only one to feel this way. I never liked the NY Mets traditional pinstripes. The reason why is simply because it is too much a reminder that the NY Mets are the second cousin/red haired stepchild to the NY Yankees. I don't really ever like being second, just first.

    I liked better the all white pants a few seasons back, they were sharp looking. It's not a significant design change. But to me, I was never that big a NY Yankee fan to start with. So why do we have to imitate them at all in any way?

    (LOL)

    Laughter is always good medicine they say.

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