Good
morning.
Many of the readers
here love when I post links to stories about the origin of this game. Here’s
another one regarding the birth of the national anthem in women’s team and negro leagues
Dom
Savino - @DominickSavino
- Did some research for an end-of-season article for the Cyclones. Per
fangraphs, Ross Adolph finished tied for 6th in
the entire Mets system with a 147 wRC+. Andres Regnault,
Luis Santana, McNeil, Alonso, and Nimmo were the
only ones who fared better.
The Mets
released pitcher Ian Krol last week. Frankly, I
found the release of the 22-year old a little surprising. He had a 0.00-ERA for
the one game he pitched for the Mets. He also combined for a 2.72 for two
teams, one of which included 3.31 for 25 games in Las Vegas. Only Bobby Wahl had a better ERA for Vegas. This is a weird
release unless it came at Krol’s request.
An
interesting article by Sheryl Ring of Fangraphs
on David Wright, Peter
Alonso, and the Law of Metropolitan Frugality
Instead, my point is somewhat
different. Alonso’s situation isn’t an example of the Mets being the Mets, so
much as it is an example of the Mets doing what every team does. The Mets have
a well-earned reputation for being spendthrifts, and are now being viewed — and
criticized — through that lens. Maybe teams like the Jays and Twins should be,
as well.
John Harper
of the New York News put up a trade idea on Twitter yesterday… the Mets trade
RHP Noah Syndergaard and OF Brandon Nimmo to Milwaukee for RHP Zach Davies and OF Christian
Yelich. Let’s give a look-see at this before I crumble this piece of
paper up and throw it in the trash.
1. We only have so many quality ballplayers on
our current 25-man squad and these two are tow of them, so the best we can come
away for here is an equal number.
2. Syndergaard will be eligible for free agency
in 2022 and Nimmo will follow in 2023… Yelich is signed through the 2022 season
and Davies hits free agency in 2022
3. Syndergaard will probably be paid next season
in the $3.5mil range while Nimmo will paid his last year at the minimum… Yelich’s
contract is reasonable: (2019 $9.75mil, up to $14mil in 2021, option 2022) and
Davies will probably be paid in the $650K range next season.
4. We know what Syndergaard and Nimmo can
accomplish… Yelich is hitting .316 as of 9-7, with 27 home runs and 85 RBIs
while Davies is 2-5, 4.88 in 9-starts.
5. Nimmo is 25 years old… Syndergaard is 26
years old. Yelich is 26 years old… Davies is 25
So… what do
you think?
MLB
Pipeline’s Prospect Team of the Year –
1B: Peter
Alonso - (Mets No. 2 prospect/MLB No. 61)
AA/AAA:
.285/.395/.579, 478 AB, 36 HR, 119 RBI
Alonso
homered three times in the last four games to tie Reds first baseman Ibandel
Isabel for the Minor League lead, and he had wrapped up the RBI crown well
before that. In his first injury-free season as a pro, he also ranked third in
extra-base hits (68) and total bases (277), fifth in slugging and ninth in OPS
(.975).
2B: Jeff McNeil - (graduated from Mets Top 30)
AA/AAA:
.342/.411/.617, 339 AB, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 6 SB
MLB:
.321/.385/.463, 134 AB, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 4 SB
As a
12th-round pick out of Long Beach State in 2013, McNeil lacks the prospect
pedigree of most of the other hitters on the PTOY first team. But he holds his
own statistically -- he came in second in the Minors in slugging and OPS
(1.028), trailing only Guerrero -- and has continued to thrive in New York.
Dom
Smith said on September 9th
prior to the game –
On helping
deGrom: "That was the big talk today. We definitely wanted to help
(deGrom) out, he's been pitching lights out all year, he's been making history
out there. We faced his competitor, and we definitely want to put a dent and
hurt their chances."
WHY IS BASEBALL A HIT IN JAPAN, BUT STRIKING
OUT IN CHINA?
Fangraphs put up a graph on the NL Cy Young
race:
National League Cy Young Contenders
| Metric | Max Scherzer | Jacob deGrom | Aaron Nola | Patrick Corbin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IP | 202.2 | 188 | 188.2 | 179.2 |
| K% | 34.4% | 31.3% | 26.6% | 31.3% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% |
| HR/9 | 0.93 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| BABIP | .255 | .290 | .251 | .293 |
| ERA | 2.31 | 1.68 | 2.29 | 3.01 |
| FIP | 2.66 | 2.08 | 2.86 | 2.38 |
| WAR | 6.7 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 6.0 |
Blue=Leader
Orange=2ndPlace
Orange=2nd
Based on these numbers, Jacob deGrom is the pretty clear favorite for Cy honors,.
Jeff the Great McNeil gets a glowing article in the Post today: https://nypost.com/2018/09/15/jeff-mcneil-making-striking-impression-but-not-striking-out/
ReplyDeleteI guess if he ended up on the top prospect list, he's not too old to be one :)
He got a hit in their key rally, which 0-12 Sewald coughed up.
Winning bullpens and 0-12 guys don't coincide.
I am keeping Thor and Nimmo over Yelich and the Kinks' lead singer. Our guys have more upside.
Yanks calling up Sheffield...but Alonso goes to Skills School. At least they got Wright right.
McNeil proves a basic mathematical point...if you strike out just once every 11 plate appearances, it is easier to hit .300. Strikeout are .000, last time I checked.
ReplyDeleteAdolph was REAL impressive, as that wRC+ stat shows. A triples machine.
ReplyDeleteOff topic, but are any of you as nervous as I am about the Braves having Ronald Acuna Jr? 20 years old and, in just 97 games, he has 25 homers and 25 doubles as a rookie? Next Hank Aaron?
ReplyDeleteGreat article on Acuna, who signed for $100K. https://www.mlb.com/news/how-the-atlanta-braves-signed-ronald-acuna-jr/c-283634544
ReplyDeleteMaybe just maybe Super Jeff just might change baseball philosophy back to what we all used to call National league ball: hit and run, bunting, moving runners over and dare I say MAKING CONTACT WITH THE BALL. It's exciting to think of next year with Rosario, JM and I would hit Nimmo 3rd with Alonso's righty bat hitting 4th. I had a dream last night where were holding our own through July and Yo comes back and we repeat 2015 but win the WS....what do think guys? Has Sewald ever come in a game and not given it up or does it just seem that way. Mack as far as the trade goes I wouldn't make it. Nimmo's not Yelich (and who would replace his smile?) yet but Noah's due for a big year and the thought of actually seeing Jake, Thor, Wheels and Matz pitch a full season (fingers and toes crossed) would be awesome.
ReplyDeleteYeah Tom and wouldn't it be great for us to have that kind of player...maybe Alonso or Gimenez time will tell.
ReplyDeleteA lot of chatter here but not much on what I wrote about.
ReplyDeleteWe'll try again at 11am.
Interesting, Mack.......my first impression about the proposed trade is that it doesn't really address any weaknesses on our roster. I think Thor is the better pitcher and Yelich (at this point), is the better position player. So, in short, we are downgrading the rotation to upgrade one of our outfield spots.......not sure I understand the deal, to be honest.
ReplyDeleteIn time, I also think Nimmo has a chance to be in the same conversation as Yelich, so Milwaukee wins that deal in a few seasons.
Adolph looks like a player to watch in the coming seasons.........IF he stays in CF, it would address an organizational weakness.
Jake is my Cy Young Award winner, but there seems to be an anti-Mets attitude in the media, further amplified by the hit piece over the Alonso handling, yet other clubs do the same thing with prospects and you don't hear anything. It wouldn't shock me if Mad Max or Nola get the award, even though both clubs will not be in the playoffs (either).
Too may folks get wrapped up in WINS/LOSSES for a pitcher, when it is the statistic that the pitcher has the least control over.
Oh and if China ever got serious about baseball, they would be a powerhouse when you see how many people/resources that they have as a nation.....odd that it has taken off in Japan, but not there.
Tom, I feel that Nimmo, Rosario, McNeil is the best leadoff combo. Then, Conforto, Bruce or Ramos, followed whoever is left.
ReplyDeleteMack, why are you crushing on other players and stiff arming ours?
Also, Cashman is bringing up an unprepared Sheffield because when he could have traded for deGrom, he chose to keep his kids rather than go after three titles. And now, his kids are playing like kids do, and the Yankees are sinking.
What’s the good reason for starting Alonso’s clock now for? To congratulate him on a great year? Didn’t he hit .248 in Vegas? Are we giving participation trophies or are we maximizing our winning?
Morning Mack:
ReplyDeleteHope you and your Lady made it safely threw the storm?
I remember you talking about how great the Mets pitching is/will be.
All the offense has to do is find/score 4 runs per game
It is my belief that there is a switch in the teams,offensive philosophy.
Previous seasons would rely on Home Runs,as the only way to score.
Much to my happiness there seems to be a more balanced approach,triples, doubles ,hit n runs,stolen bases. With the occasional Homer.
Going forward there are a couple hitters I think they are going to rely to hit Homers, Conforto,Alonso,Frazier. But with a more balanced approach coming from Nimmo,Rosario,McNeil. Then eventually Gimenez.
I really am excited about the Offensive future
Going into FA period there are two positions but 3 spots id like filled.
catcher either Grandel or Ramos is a must
.
In the Pen id like Miller and Familia back,there are lots of others to fill pen.
Enjoy your day
Steve
Want to apologize Mack, but didn’t realize you said you’d throw the trade away when I first read the article. Plus, I’m feeling a little cranky today. Need a win, I guess. Too, it would help if it were April 2019 already. I get down a bit in Septembers...
ReplyDeleteNo problem Texas
ReplyDeleteI was a little confused at your first comment and had to go back and check if I said anything bone crushing.
Carry on. :)
Steve -
ReplyDeleteI wish you were going to be the new GM
That proposed trade deserves to be crumpled up and thrown away. You would downgrade your pitching significantly to get an upgrade in offense. In Syndergaard you have a pitcher with a career ERA of 2.99. His biggest issue is staying healthy. Davies is 4.01. For reference, his career numbers are on par with Jon Niese.
ReplyDeleteI'd written a long time ago suggesting Nimmo could become Christian Yelich. Now with a 4.0 WAR season, 17 HRs, and a .395 OBP he appears on a path to achieving that potential.
That's not in any way meant to diminish Yelich's talent. He is having a 5.4 WAR season with 30 HRs, 85 RBIs, a .315 AVG and a .384 OBP. As his HR totals rose so too did his Ks and his walks diminished. However, with that kind of output, it sure seems a worthy tradeoff.
If it was a year later and you were confident Justin Dunn or someone else could step forward into the major league rotation, MAYBE you could consider it, but that's not yet the case. Furthermore, you're giving up the much less expensive combo of Thor/Nimmo for the more expensive combo of Yelich/Davies.
I thank them but pass.
The only way I would trade Thor is if im.getting back a Fernando Tatis jr or Vlad jr level prospect. Or a stud young catcher. I like Yelich but Davies is a 4th starter at best. I would not make that trade
ReplyDeletePablo, as soon as your answer is yes to the question, " Could Thor win Cy Young in 2019?", which he could, you can't make that trade. At about the same age as Thor, Verlander went from good to GREAT. Could happen again with Thor.
ReplyDeleteAround the Acorn
ReplyDeleteToo often, the baseball media sycophants who cover NY Mets baseball will be adding to the conversation what they think are sound Mets trades. Let's be honest here, it does not always even seem like they are watching the NY Mets games that closely, and it shows. But it is already starting, as if somehow each one holds the magic potion for 2019.
The New York sports media is really all about building controversy and reeling in all the fans and readers that they can hook in through debatable topics of conversation and careless trade notions. Smoke and mirrors. But always remember here, that they want to preserve first and foremost their own jobs and this is how they do it best. Once and a great while, there is an exception to this rule (Mack Ade), but don't hold your breath waiting for many others to show up.
The fact is simply this one...The 2018 NY Mets right now and as constituted this second half, are not that far away from being a serious playoff contender starting next 2019 season. They have six major rookie or second year younger players in the field here now (they had nine hits last night) whom all play the game the exact same way with high energy octane and above average player skill sets both offensively and defensively. Six. And they seem to be feeding off of each other right now beautifully. Seriously, how many other MLB teams can say that?
The only personnel additions needed for the 2019 NY Mets may be these: 1B Another power hitter (probably Peter Alonso), 3B Someone who can actually hit for a decent MLB average (Maybe Andres Gimenez), LF If Cespedes cannot go due to foot injury, then mayeb another homerun hitter to replace him, C The Mets need a real power hitting homerun guy here.
Starting and Relief Pitching...
Leave the top three starters alone. As far as Steven Matz goes, let's see how he finishes 2018 first. Here's where it gets a little bit trickier, the four and five starters.
There is no apparent plethora of MiLB Mets starter possibilities in the system right now. I have a hard time seeing Chris Flexen and Drew Gagnon making the Mets in 2019 as other than mid relievers, if that. Corey Oswalt has been both good and bad this season, but I think there is something there. And then my idea of making Drew Smith into a viable starter long term. I just think that it may be way too soon to typecast Drew as a reliever, he has three potential above average pitches. There is no one else down in the farm ready for 2019 Spring Training and who knows how Rafael Montero will come back. Oswalt and Smith, maybe getting them into Winter Ball makes sense.
For the Bullpen...
Lose the relievers here now that have been either not very good or a total roller coaster ride all season long. A team cannot grow this way, it's demoralizing not to win the games that a team should. They are game killers.
Ideally speaking, the Mets should want Gerson Bautista, Jenrry Mejia if he can, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Tyler Bashlor, Daniel Zamora, and one more ready to go for 2019 Spring Training.