Mike Freire - Closing The Gap (2019)

Good Morning, Mets' Fans!

As you read the title of this article, you might be wondering what I am talking about.  No, this isn't an Orthodontic Journal article about Michael Strahan's front teeth, nor is it a piece intended for This Old House magazine and winterizing your home.  What I am referring to is the gap between our current Mets' team and what it will take to return to relevance (i.e. the playoffs, meaningful baseball games in late September or at the very least not getting eliminated from the conversation before Labor Day).

I am not a New York Giants fan, but I did appreciate the job that former coach Bill Parcells did during his tenure with the team. Bill was famous for a variety of quotes that I find quite relevant today, despite the time that has passed and the differences between football and baseball. On that topic, Bill was credited with saying that if you want to win a championship, you have to start by being the best in your own division before you can worry about overtaking anyone else (paraphrased, of course).

***Yes, both sports have other ways of getting into the playoffs, but generally speaking, if you want to be the BEST team in your sport, it starts in your own back yard and in our case, that is the National League East.

As I write this piece, there are only a handful of games left in the regular season and our division has already been clinched by the Atlanta Braves.  So, I think it is close enough to review the basic standings and to reveal just how far the Mets will need to go to "close the gap", so to speak.

Consider the following standings;

  Team           W - L      GB    Run Diff

Atlanta          89-68     ---       +105
Washington   80-78     9.5       +88
Philadelphia  78-79      11         -32
New York       73-84      16         -32
Miami            62-95      27       -219

Reviewing the listed standings, it is pretty clear that the Braves have earned the right to represent our division in the NL playoffs. They have the best record and it is supported by a positive run differential and corresponding "expected record" only one game off of the pace they are setting. That does not include the fact that they have an impressive stable of young players that are powering their success, so I do not see them taking a step backward as we move forward in time.

The preseason favorites (Nationals) underachieved yet again and will finish a distant second to the Braves, while missing the playoffs at the same time. This is despite their run differential hinting at more success then they have enjoyed to this point, but this team has consistently failed to live up to the hype so I am not surprised.  They are also in what feels like a transition period, so it remains to be seen if they will rebound or continue their slow slide into mediocrity. Either way, they are no longer the "hunted" team and should not be the Mets' main focus.

The Phillies had a nice run for most of the year, but started to fade about a month ago. If you look at their run differential, that is also not a surprise and it hints at a young team that is on the rise but not quite ready for prime time, yet. With another off season under their belt and some rumored "big ticket" free agent acquisitions, they SHOULD be a contender next year.

The Marlins are horrendous, but that has been the plan all along. The team was torn down to the studs in anticipation of a multiyear "rebuild", so they will not likely be in the picture in the next season or two.

We are all well aware of the Mets' up and down season, along with the potential for success that their roster presents (I plan on using a different article on a different day to delve further into that topic). However, if you take a quick look at the standings, the Mets have sixteen games to make up on the Braves, while simultaneously passing the Nationals and Phillies in the standings. Furthermore, the Mets' 2018 run differential is -137 runs when compared to Atlanta's computation, so clearly there is much work to do.

Looking a bit closer, the Mets have a winning record against everyone in the division (32-22) EXCEPT for the Braves, who have simply OWNED the Mets this year (4-13 with two games left to play).

If we agree that Atlanta is the front runner for the 2019 season, then the Mets have to figure out a way to hold serve against the rest of the division while getting MUCH better against the Braves. Simply playing ".500 baseball" this year would have closed the sixteen game gap down to a much more manageable six games!

Keep this information in mind as the Mets transition into the off season and they begin to address the issues with their roster, etc.