Mike Freire - Labor Day Update (Playoff Races)

OK, so we are officially past Labor Day and well into the month of September.  That means that the playoff races (Divisions and Wild Cards) are up for grabs and the final playoff picture will start to come into view.  As with most years, there are interesting story lines and very intriguing “potential” playoff match ups that are shaping up.

Since I can get a bit “wordy” at times, I will focus on both league’s playoff pictures instead of everyone’s record.

With that said, here we go;

American League (current standings and projected records)

1.     Boston           95-44  (.683)      111-51

2.     Houston         83-53  (.616)      101-61

3.     Cleveland      77-60  (.562)       91-71

W1.  New York      86-52  (.623)       101-61

W2.  Oakland        83-53  (.597)        97-65

Since the last time I posted a "standings" article (a few weeks ago), the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees have "come back to Earth" a bit, but the Indians and the A's have surged forward.  Two of the three division leaders have at least an 8.5 game lead (BOS and CLE), so we may not get much drama for those divisional races, but the A's have closed quite a bit of ground on the Astros so that race could be intriguing. 

The AL Wild Card races will likely be anti-climatic as the Yankees and A's have pulled away from the Mariners and look to be in good shape (unless the A's catch the Astros, then Houston will be in the Wild Card match up).

Despite a recent lull, the Red Sox are still playing excellent baseball and are on pace to win 111 games.  They should be the early favorite to make it back to the World Series (especially if Chris Sale is available in a short series or two).  You also have two additional teams that could win over 100 games in the regular season, with the defending champion Astros still looking formidable and the aforementioned Yankees on pace to host the Wild Card match up with a better record then the other Divisional Champions.

As of this article, New York would host Oakland in the Wild Card, with the winner going to Boston for the Divisional Series.  Houston would host Cleveland in the other Divisional Series and the winners would meet in the ALCS.  Houston and Boston could potentially meet in the ALCS in what could be an epic battle.

National League (current standings and projected records)

1.     Chicago          81-56  (.591)      96-66

2.     Atlanta           76-61  (.555)      90-72

3.     Colorado         75-62  (.547)      89-73

W1.  Milwaukee      78-61  (.561)      91-71

W2.  St. Louis         76-62  (.557)      90-72

***There are three additional teams (LA, Arizona and Philadelphia) that are just off the listed Wild Card pace with roughly twenty-four games to play.

Unlike the American League, all three of the division leaders have very small leads (4 games maximum), so we will likely have an interesting divisional chase in all three divisions of the National League.  Additionally, the Wild Card race should be even crazier, since there are a total of five teams within five games of each other.

With all of the uncertainty within the Divisional races and the Wild Card races, putting together a probable playoff picture in the National League is much more difficult then the American League.

Also unlike the American League, there is quite a bit of parity in the National League and that leads to “ordinary” records.  As you can see above, Chicago has the best record in the National League, but their record would only surpass the Indians in the American League standings, which is crazy.

IF the season ended today, Milwaukee would host St Louis in the Wild Card with the winner going to Chicago for the Divisional Series.  Atlanta would host Colorado in the other Divisional Series and the winners would meet in the NLCS.  Picking the potential NLCS is much more difficult, but if we rely on the home teams for now, you could have the Braves and Cubs going at it for a chance to reach the World Series against either Boston or Houston, most likely. 

Should be very interesting (especially in the NL) as we head towards the finish line.