Reese Kaplan -- 2019 Off-Season Roster Priorities

As the season draws to a close there are a number of positive signs that are giving fans some hope and optimism for 2019.  Even Mickey Callaway who many wanted kicked to the curb is getting some accolades for his persistence through the horror of July.  While most can point to the obvious good things that have happened – Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo, there is a huge disparity of prioritizing what needs to be done to build upon this now seemingly solid foundation.

Bullpen Boosters

There’s no way to sugarcoat the performance of the Mets’ pen this year.  It’s bad…really, really bad.  After having dispatched with one of the best arms in Jeurys Familia, losing a wild but experienced arm in AJ Ramos, losing one-season wunderkind Anthony Swarzak to injury for most of the year and then needing normally stellar Jerry Blevins to take half a season to regain his effectiveness, it put way too many innings in the hands of people unable or unready to handle the role of supporting the starting pitchers.

There is some hope in the arms of Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Daniel Zamora and Drew Smith.  They have all had stretches of competence that suggest they have a reasonable expectation of success moving forward. 

The problem is they have shared duties with folks like Jacob Rhame, Paul Sewald, Tim Peterson and others who have been cut or dispatched like Hansel Robles and Gerson Bautista. 

Then there’s an in-between group who have shown flashes like Tyler Bashlor, Drew Gagnon and Eric Hanhold. 

The folks in this group feel that there is a true closer missing from this mix and advocate going after the likes of Craig Kimbrel.  While no one could argue with having the best shutdown reliever in baseball added to the roster, the fact is that he’ll earn likely what Aroldis Chapman and others got in free agency -- $17 million or more per year for multiple years.  Entering 2019 at age 31 that’s not necessarily an unreasonable nor unfair salary, but the ownership over the past eight seasons has not demonstrated a willingness to make that kind of investment in relief pitching. 

Surely there are other competent arms out there available for less such as Kelvin Herrera, David Robertson, Tyler Clippard, Brandon Kintzler, Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, but most of them would lead to a bullpen by committee approach rather than a traditional closer.  They could entrust Lugo or Smith to that role, but there’s not much of a track record to instill as much confidence as would Kimbrel.

Catcher Cohorts

Ever since Travis d’Arnaud’s 2017 season when in 2/3 of a season he delivered 16 HRs and 57 RBIs, the Mets have been struggling to get production from behind the plate.  d’Arnaud was, of course, lost about ten days into the season and Kevin Plawecki gone the very same same day.  Extended looks at Jose Lobaton showed why he’s been at best a backup throughout his career and Tomas Nido demonstrated why he struggled to hit in AA.  Kevin Plawecki returned and got a lot of time this year but to date has achieved just a .212 average and newcomer Devin Mesoraco provided good pitch framing and some power, but the injury bug that’s derailed his career struck again.

So going into 2019 your in-house options include d’Arnaud (who many advocate non-tendering), Plawecki and Nido as Mesoraco is a free agent and Lobaton will likely depart as a minor league free agent as well. 

For a position traditionally difficult to fill, this year’s free agent crop includes a couple of premium catchers there for the taking if you’re willing to write the check.  Yasmani Grandal is both the defensive whiz and power threat the team needs.  Wilson Ramos is a more consistent hitter with a bit less power and less defensive acumen.  Grandal is Johnny Bench lite.  Ramos is Ted Simmons lite. 

For a frame of reference, Buster Posey earns $22 million, Yadier Molina $20 million, Russell Martin $20 million and Brian McCann $17 million.  Think $17 to $20 million as the aspirational price range for each of these two catchers.  There are some trade targets as well such as KC’s Salvador Perez and the Marlins’ JT Realmuto, but do the Mets have the chips to pull off this kind of deal?  The oft-desired Jonathon Lucroy is available but he’s been on a rapid downhill slide for the past few years and likely isn’t a good investment. 

Starter Supporters

Given the fragile state of the Mets’ rotation over the past several years, many fear that a full season of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas simply won’t be happening.  They are less than confident in having swingman Seth Lugo or so-far unimpressive Corey Oswalt as the Plan B. 

Towards that end some are advocating adding another solid arm to the rotation and perhaps converting the $8 million Vargas into a left handed relief pitcher and emergency starter.  There is some merit to that though Vargas did turn in a much more respectable interval late in the season than anyone would have anticipated given what little he did earlier in the year.   From July 27^th through September 20^th he’s gone 4-3 with a 4.37 ERA and players hitting .235 against him.  These results mirror his career numbers of a 4.29 ERA and probably does play as a fifth starter. 

There are some decent arms available in free agency, including Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and an interesting buy-low candidate in Lance Lynn.  Of course, adding a starting pitcher or two could open up the trade possibility of one of the existing starters to replenish other needs. 

So what is your off-season priority and plan?