Reese Kaplan -- Callaway vs. Collins: A 1st Year Look

As the season draws to a close it would seem an appropriate time to see how Mickey Callaway fared versus the man he replaced, Terry Collins.  At this juncture it’s pretty safe to assume that Collins will have the edge in the overall record as he finished his inaugural season by going 77-85, a .475 winning percentage.  The Mets are currently sitting at 73-84, a .465 winning percentage.  They would need to take four of the next five to match Collins’ first season in the dugout.

What type of team did Terry Collins have in 2011?  Well, he didn’t have four or five aces, that’s for sure.  Reclamation project R.A. Dickey was his best starter with a 3.28 ERA but a deGrom-like 8-13 record showing he was not getting much in the way of offensive support.  His rotation colleagues included Mike Pelfrey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee and Jon Neise.

On the offensive side of the ledger you had the kind of lineup most fans would kill for today.  It included batting champion Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Angel Pagan, Jason Bay and Josh Thole (who hit .268!).

He had a decent pen as well, led by Frankie Rodriguez, Tim Byrdak and Bobby Parnell, with strong supporting contributions from Miguel Bautista, Manny Acosta and Taylor Buchholz.

Yet despite these assets, Collins underperformed his Pythagorean win expectation by two full games. 

By contrast Mickey Callaway has the big guns in the rotation – Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, (until recently) Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and (cough) Jason Vargas.  That’s a rotation that is the envy of pretty much everyone in baseball.

On offense, however, not so much.  Way too many ABs were given to the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Jack Reinheimer, shell-of-his-former-self Jose Reyes, Austin Jackson and any catcher you’d like to pencil in.  Granted, you are now seeing fruits of the labors of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario, better-late-than-never Jay Bruce, and newcomer Jeff McNeil.

The bullpen could be nicknamed The Towering Inferno for their propensity to spray kerosense, gasoline and other flammables when extinguishing the conflagration is what is required.  We’ll leave the departed Jeurys Familia out of the equation, but there is Seth Lugo and not a whole lot else.  Robert Gsellman showed flashes.  Drew Smith recently has shown flashes.  Daniel Zamora has shown flashes but on the whole the bullpen is so bad that the Mets should be able to apply for Superfund cleanup dollars.

Given these limitations, plus the injury days lost to David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, the catchers, Wilmer Flores, Jay Bruce, Noah Syndergaard, Jason Vargas, AJ Ramos, Anthony Swarzak, Todd Frazier and others, you’d think that the rookie skipper would be doing alright but his Pythagorean win expectation is currently 3 games better than what he’s delivered.

So how would Collins have fared with the current team?  It’s all speculation, of course, based upon 7 years of observation how he managed his teams.

Well, first of all, you’d have seen a lot more of Jose Reyes.  Collins was justly called on the carpet many times for favoring veterans who didn’t perform over rookies or younger players who, even if they did, never got any benefit of doubt and little opportunity.  It might have meant more of Wilmer Flores at 2B after Asdrubal Cabrera departed.  That would mean Jeff McNeil would likely be a benchwarmer if he was on the club at all. 

Similarly, Brandon Nimmo’s only playing time came at the expense of injured players during the Collins era.  Would he have gotten full time duty?  Maybe, maybe not. 

I would assume Michael Conforto would have done the same under Collins because despite him throwing shade on his All Star selection, Collins would have gone with the familiar.

Amed Rosario, however, would likely be back in the minors as we saw more of the Jack Reinheimer, Ty Kelly types taking reps at SS alongside Reyes at 2B.  Collins did not let struggling youngsters play long enough to develop. 

Also a Collins team may likely still have had Adrian Gonzalez at 1B and Jose Bautista in the outfield.  He would have lobbied hard for their roles on the club.  Austin Jackson would play every day.  (Lest you think I'm harsh, do the names Nori Aoki and James Loney ring a bell?)

So if these assessments are at all fair, is it safe to say that the rookie manager (along with his many well documented rookie mistakes) actually did better than the very experienced Collins would have done had he returned for an 8^th season at the helm?