Reese Kaplan -- He May Win the Popular Vote, But...

Let’s temporarily flash back to the year 2010 that started off with the huge earthquake in Haiti, the truck bomb found in Times Square, Joran Van der Sloot arrested in Peru in connection with the Natalee Holloway disappearance in Aruba, and the group of miners trapped underground in an Atacama area copper mine that had collapsed were miraculously rescued.

For Mets fans, the year 2010 has a greater significance and precedence as it relates to the otherwise forgettable 2018 campaign.  At the conclusion of the 2010 baseball season the powers that be saw fit to award the AL Cy Young Award to a pitcher with a lackluster 13-12 record for the year pitching for a team that either was shut out or scored but a single run in 10 of his 12 losses, and on four other occasions the bullpen blew the lead he’d handed them to protect.  Yes, Felix Hernandez indeed looked at lot then like Jacob deGrom does now. 

As we dive a little deeper into King Felix’s numbers that year, he sported a league leading 2.27 ERA, struck out 232 which was 2nd in the league, finished second in walks and hits per 9 innings as well as in complete games.  With the exception of the strike-shortened season when Fernando Valenzuela won with just 13 wins, it was the lowest full season victory total to ever capture the Cy Young Award.

Jacob deGrom is first in the league with a 1.68 ERA, second in the league in strikeouts with 224 and a month to go to increase that number, third in the league in WHIP at 0.98.  He leads the majors in fewest home runs allowed and is second in Ks per 9 IP. However, if he reaches 10 wins for the whole season it will be quite a coup.  

David Adler of MLB.com notes, “19 of Jacob deGrom's 27 starts have come against teams currently over .500. In those 19 starts, he has a 1.47 ERA and is striking out 11.12 batters per 9 innings.”  Furthermore, Tim Britton of The Athletic also observed, “Whoever opposes Jacob deGrom, as that pitcher has combined to toss 147 2/3 innings of 2.50 ERA ball this season.”  In other words, that won-loss record is both a testament to the quality of pitchers he’s opposed and the anemic Mets’ offense. 

How bad is it for deGrom?  He has reached the Roger Craig level of record setting frustration.  Craig in 1963 went seven or more innings 8 times either shutting out his opponent or allowing but a single run.  deGrom has now tied that dubious record with a month to go.  He should shatter it. 

In all, the punchless Mets have managed to score less than three runs in 18 of his starts  and if not for his own RBI bat it would have been even worse.  He himself hasn’t allowed more than three runs since early April, a period in which he’s gone 6-8. That’s just sad!

While in our hearts we all think deGrom is deserving of this award just as R.A. Dickey was back in 2012, the fact is that Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola are posting winning records.  In fact, you could make the case that Nola is the league’s MVP although not necessarily it’s best pitcher.  Still, he leads the race in WAR with an unfathomable 8.9. 

So, take off your Mets cap for a minute and think, is Jacob deGrom truly deserving?  You can’t fault what he’s done on the mound.  The only down side seems to be the lack of run support he’s received and isn’t the award about being the best pitcher, not necessarily the winningest pitcher? 

For example, Andy Pettitte made a career with the Yankees of being a 21-game winner on two occasions, first with a 3.87 ERA and the second time with a 4.02.  He finished his baseball career more than 100 games over .500 with a record of 256-153, but with a rather pedestrian 3.85 ERA.  Wins are not everything.  (For the record, Pettitte never got a Cy Young Award either.  And unlike Pettitte, deGrom was never implicated for using steroids.)

My heart says deGrom but my head says it’s going to Nola if the Phillies overtake the Braves, Scherzer if they don’t.