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10/8/18

Hobie - 40 Man Projections


One of Mack's Mets' oldest readers is a super fan with the handle 'Hobie', short for old Met catcher Hobie Landrith.

He sent me this email yesterday and he gave me permission to put it up on the site and get all of your opinion on where the 2019 40-man should go:


Mack-

Time to play 40-man roulette? 


If so, I see on the MLB site 49 listed, with 9 due to come of the 60-Day DL:


P- Hanhold, Montero, Ramos & Wahl
C- TdA
IF- Evans, TJR
OF- Cep, Legares

countered by 6 FA eligibles; Ramos, Blevins, Lobaton, Mesarosco, Reyes & Jackson, and the retirement of DW (7). The net stands at 42.

So we need to dump 2 by the Draft. I'm assuming any FA signings will come after the R5 draft and trades are too unpredictable to consider here. Who are the net-2(at least) castaways/additions?

The only MiL, R5 eligible at risk, IMO, is Corey Taylor—i'll protect him and dump 3: Conlon, Reinheimer, Guillorme.

You?

-Hobie

11 comments:

  1. Hobie -

    I don't want to approach this as who I would add.

    I want to get rid of the dead wood first.

    Free agents;

    Mesoraco, Ramos, Blevins, Jackson, Reyes, Lobaton

    Conlon, Montero, Reinheimer, Wright (DL-retired-whatever), Cespedes (DL)

    49 currently on, including players on DL

    11 - taken off of still on DL

    Net: 38

    (God, I wish I could get this guy to be a writer here, even if it was just ofr once in awhile...)

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  2. Can't cut Wright, because then the insurance money goes away. Texas carried Prince Fielder for several years on the 40 man roster after he retired because of insurance.
    Also, here are the players that need to be added to the 40 man or lose in the Rule 5 draft:
    David Thompson, Nabil Crismatt, Logan Taylor, Patrick Mazeika, Harold Gonzalez, David Roseboom, Anthiny Dimino, Ali Sanchez, Luis Carpio, Walter Rasquin, Hansel Moreno, Wagner Lagrange.
    There are at least 3 to 4 that I would keep. Thank goodness that the team was smart enough not to bring up Alonzo.

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  3. Rob, I keep Mazeika, Sanchez, possibly Roseboom. Rest do not concern me

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  4. Great post Rob, and perfect info. The only player I add is Mazeika. As for the 40, after the free agents: Sewald, Conlon, Peterson are easy pickings. Then, removing Hanhold and Gagnon should not leave behind any tears. I’d start there, then pick off a catcher as I sign another one. I haven’t even gotten to Reinmeier, but Mejia is coming back, too.

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  5. Hobie beat me to it. Wednesday I plan to have a lengthy discussion on the 40-man roster crunch, the possible casualties and the likely additions.

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  6. Rob -

    Thanks for the clarification on Wright. I wasn't sure how the insurance/40-man works together.

    As for the new guys, Mazeika, Roseboom, and Lagrange would be my picks.

    With the addition of them and Wright, I'm back up to 42.

    Two more cuts: Peterson and either Seward or Rhame

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  7. Rob -

    I also believe that Dimino was already cut last week

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  8. Mack,
    you are right about Dimino. I really thought that Paul Seward was going to work out, but the results never got better. I would keep Rhame because he looked better the last couple of weeks. But, the bullpen is the number 1 priority this winter.

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  9. When I think about “protecting” an asset (avoiding the term “prospect”) from a R5 pilfer, I am more concerned about those already stashed on the 40 then those off. The latter must be deemed valuable enough for a team to burn a 25 man slot for the entire year to purloin. That's pretty rare given notable exceptions—Johan Santana, Utley, etc.

    DFA'ing is much greater risk as the claimant has no 25-man obligation. My rumination to Mack was that I thought Corey Taylor is one of the few at risk, however slight. Given our BP deficiencies, Corey's 2nd half: 14IP/ 1.29ERA/ 1.14WHIP /11K (Bingo) and 12.2/1.42/1.18/9 (LV) is worth a slot for now. Maybe I'd add Regnault too of a decent 2nd half in AAA. Just don't see anyone stashing Thompson. Mazeika, Dimino or any of our position farmhands.

    I would DFA half of the prospective BP arms on the 40 if I only knew which half. I even think of them in pairs where one will blossom the other wither further: Bautista/Balshor, Callahan/Rhame, T.Peterson/Sewald just don't know which. And I have some irrational hope for those returning from the DL such as Wahl & Hanhold.

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  10. Surprised Dimino was cut, but we do not get to see them play.

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  11. as I post every year...
    Rule 5 draft............
    nickel7168 wrote: 2011
    "There is also a minor league segment as part of the Rule 5 draft where players can be drafted from an organizations' double-A roster to another clubs' triple-A roster and also from a A-roster to a AA-roster.
    Players who are drafted in the minor league portion of the draft are not required to remain on the roster of the club which drafts them and are not subject to being returned to their original club.
    Players drafted to a AAA or AA club should be offered an opportunity to remain at that level during spring training, but it is not required. There is no provision for players being returned to their previous organizations. In return for the player,the original club receives the following cash considerations: Triple-A Draft $12,500 Double-A Draft $ 5,000"
    So an A ball or AA ball player does not have to be put on a MLB roster to be drafted.”
    DuffyDyer wrote: 2011
    “The AAA and AA Minor League phases are far more simplified, as teams may draft any player not protected by either the 40 man roster or the 38 man AAA reserve list (AAA phase) and the 37 man AA reserve list (AA phase). These prospects can be purchased at the cost of $12,000 and $4,000 respectively, and are not subject to the restrictions of the Rule 5 Draft's major league phase.”
    acerimusdux wrote: 2011
    “The minor league draft consists of two phases, and teams can continue selecting players until their minor league rosters are at capacity. Any player eligible for the draft is not, by definition, held in high regard by his organization. Each club can shield 78 players from the draft altogether—40 on the big league roster and 38 at Triple-A. An additional 37 can be placed on the Double-A roster and be protected from the big league and Triple-A phases of the draft."

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