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10/1/18

Reese Kaplan -- 2018 Season in Review



With the season now in the rearview mirror, what positives can we take as the team moves into the rest and relaxation period of the schedule – October – when real teams are still playing baseball?

Well, the starting pitching was a revelation this year.  I think it’s not coincidental that Mickey Callaway chose to remove Steven Matz on Saturday when he did because after 6 shutout innings his ERA for the year dipped below the 4.00 threshold and he finished the year at 3.97.  Add that to what’s been accomplished by Jacob deGrom (1.70), Noah Syndergaard (3.22) and Zack Wheeler (3.31) and it would appear that on the surface Mickey Callaway did what he was brought in to do – leverage the formidable starting pitching and make them perform at a very high level.  How much of Jason Vargas’ woes were due to injury, how much due to adjusting to a new league’s hitters and how much due to simple incompetence we’ll never know, but even he has been outstanding for the last several weeks of the season.

Jeff McNeil has done everything the Mets could have hoped short of some of the power he showed in the AA/AAA journey to the majors this year.  3 HRs in 221 ABs is a pace to hit a single digit total for the entire season.  You know what, I’ll take it.  His defense was way better than advertised, his baserunning was more aggressive than expected and the quality at-bats were the Mets’ version of must-watch TV.

Amed Rosario started showing why he was so highly regarded in the minors.  While his season ending average in the .260 range doesn’t pop out at you if you’re merely reading it in a stat list, anyone who’s watched him over the past two months saw a formidable offensive force and a weapon on the basepaths.  Some want to give Jose Reyes credit for mentoring him.  Hey, whatever worked, I’m happy for it. 

Brandon Nimmo was another must-see set of ABs for Mets fans.  He worked deep counts, allowed himself to get hit by pitches, sprinted to first during his many walks and showed a surprising and heretofore unseen weapon – power.  The strikeouts were a bit worrisome, but they came in bunches between some hotter stretches, so apparently he’s still adjusting.  For the year he finished in 2/3s of a full time role with 17 HRs which would be around 25 for a full season.  I’ll take that, particularly when it’s accompanied by an OPS well north of .800.

Michael Conforto was likely rushed back in the need for injecting offense into the moribund lineup (and it showed).  It took him quite awhile to get on track, but after the All-Star break he was a very solid contributor and is pushing the 30 HR barrier, finishing the season with 28 and 82 RBIs.  No one could have projected that with his ice cold start but everyone now expects him to deliver even more in 2019. 

Seth Lugo was the other brilliant revelation this year.  Used primarily out of the pen (with a trio of spot starts in the middle of the year) he finished with a 2.66 ERA which is very good in anyone’s book.  Some even advocate pushing him into the rotation and having Jason Vargas reinvent himself as a reliever.  They say Lugo is going to work out as a starter over the winter. 

Yes, there were plenty of things that went wrong this year, but certainly there were positive signs for the future as well.  Hopefully a new emphasis on offense and some more judicious personnel decisions by a new leader in the front office will help propel them to the next level.  That’s doubly important considering how awful the bullpen and the catching situation were all year long.

19 comments:

  1. LOTS of great positives over the past two months. Fix the pen, fix catcher, let's roll. Too bad we did not keep Colin McHugh. He was tremendous in the Astros pen (1.99)

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  2. Dominic Smith played pretty well down the stretch. Good for him. Whither goest Dom next season? Make sure he does not leave and become the next Colin McHugh, success-wise.

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  3. Reese -

    Morning.

    You have covered just about all the good points. I would have thrown in Drew Smith as an emerging bullpen piece.

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  4. Tom -

    It looks like Lagares will be ready come opening day.

    Would you start him in CF or Dom in right?

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  5. Mack, the answer is neither.

    I would really try to flip Bruce for a righty bat. Dom's problem without such a trade is he would add to a lefty-heavy line up....Bruce, Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil...and Smith too? Great line up for Yankee Stadium.

    I still see Alonso here EARLY in 2019, so Dom's role, unless he sets spring training on fire, is back up 1B and OF.

    I think Lagares can get his share of OF starts, but that OF (Bruce, Conforo, Nimmo) I can live with, so I think Juan is a part time OF starter (2X per week) and defensive replacement in the OF. He is pretty untradeable with his injury history.

    I think righty Alonso is already ready - his last, oh, 5 weeks in AAA were highly impressive. I want to get him to start at 1B ASAP (i.e., as soon as they won't lose a year's control).

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  6. All well and good with what is posted above, but there’s work to do first. Besides the Front Office stuff, for Jeff Coupon was selling us that it was Alderson that kept the Mets from having a big league payroll - Jeff, we know y’all long enough - there’s the issue of teaching all of these young relievers how to pitch. There should be a mini-camp for Bashlor, Bautista, Handhold, Rhame, Smith and Callahan. They need to know how to set up hitters better with their off speed stuff and work on staying in the outer two inches of the plate. The Mets will need at least three of these kids to step up.

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  7. Gus -

    Hopefully the Wilpons can get the GM process done now so we can get down to running this team.

    I will believe it when I see it.

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  8. Tom -

    I see things differently.

    Alonso is a one tool player. He can't field at a major league level... he can't run... and his arm is too weak.

    He can hit. Hit big.

    This makes him a big time AL trade chip for a young catcher, center fielder, or stud reliever.

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    1. Definitely not a reliever.
      Please oh please oh please.
      The Mets have traded too many assets for relievers in the past couple years.

      Let failed starters become relievers.

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  9. Bob -

    I may be wrong but we traded expiring contracts for relief prospects that don't look like are proving out (except for Drew Smith)

    One our big needs is a stud reliever.

    Maybe we can sign one that is a free agent.

    Your thoughts on Familia?

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  10. If Familia proves himself capable, let him perform.

    For years the Mets have been looking to trade every day players for relievers....
    Remember always hearing about trading Daniel Murphy for 7th, 8th inning relievers or lefty specialists?

    I personally value every day players more than relievers.
    Especially nonclosers.
    I am not completely opposed to trading every day players for relievers, as long as the every day player is of a lower quality than the reliever acquired...significantly.

    I think free agency is a better route, or trading for lower tier starters that can become relievers.

    This is my stance on the draft as well. Draft starters. If they fail as starters they can become relievers.

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  11. Your point taken.

    Drafted "Starter" Seth Lugo finished the season with the 3rd most strikeouts in the NL

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  12. I'm trying to figure out the context of your stat on Lugo...???

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  13. These are numbers just for relief innings.

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  14. I wish I had confidence in either Bruce or Frazier, since both of them - if healthy - will end up with 500+ AB’s for this team. And how many more years will we be paying Cespedes? There were definitely a bunch of positives this season, but there also seem to be huge (contractual) roadblocks to overall success.

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  15. Adam -

    This team so reminds me of the Knicks, stuck in their own debt from bad deals and decisions.

    We can't help them here.

    That's why I keep saying they need to not repeat their mistakes and target this team to either 2020 or 2021

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  16. Nice work, Reese.

    I agree that the foundation has some talent......the key will be how the new GM addresses the weaknesses (C, CF, BP).

    With some luck (no more injuries), we could be in the conversation for the NL East next year.

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  17. Adam - I don't agree on 500+ at bats for Frazier next year. By midseason, I see 3B SS 2B being McNeil, Rosario, Gimenez, in some combination. Frazier off the bench then. He could be under .200 at mid season.

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  18. My off season plan.
    - Wilson Ramos for 3 years 15 mil as catcher (top out at 18)
    - sign familia and miller.

    Batting order
    Rosie
    McNeil
    Conforto
    Ramos
    Nimmo
    Alonso
    Bruce
    Frazier

    This obviously has Bruce in right most of the time but you can shift him to first for a spell if Alonso has some rookie slumps and play Lagares in center. There’s a fair bit of flexibility with the roster.

    The bench needs to be built out but I think there are internal option la and you can always keep an eye on the FA market. I would look to trade Dom Smith and maybe an lower level Propsect or two for a quality reliever or a super sub type player. There’s roster depth to fill here but i we get a quality catcher like Ramos and 2 significant free agent relievers I like all the combinations you can make with this team.

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