Earlier this week Hobie wrote to Mack asking about the
40-man roster, a topic about which I was planning to explore this week. While some good opinions have already been
voiced, I see that there are a number of ways to analyze who stays and who
goes.
First of all, there seem to be three distinct groups of
people – The Sure Things, The Bubble Boys and the Free Agents. How you wind up slotted into one of these
three categories has to do with positions of need, recent performance,
prospective price for the upcoming season and likelihood that they will be
claimed. There’s a special fourth
category of people who ended the season on the disabled list who must be
reinstated before the minor league Rule V draft.
The Sure Things
Dom Smith
Jeff McNeil
Amed Rosario
Todd Frazier
Brandon Nimmo
Michael Conforto
Jay Bruce
Kevin Plawecki
Jacob deGrom
Noah Syndergaard
Zack Wheeler
Steven Matz
Jason Vargas
Seth Lugo
Robert Gsellman
Drew Smith
Anthony Swarzak
Daniel Zamora
Tyler Bashlor
Jacob Rhame
Franklyn Kilome
Gerson Bautista
Corey Oswalt
Tomas Nido
Wilmer Flores
The Hospital Ward
Rafael Montero
Travis d’Arnaud
T.J. Rivera
Yoenis Cespedes
Bobby Wahl
Juan Lagares
The Bubble Boys
Tim Peterson
Chris Flexen
Paul Sewald
P.J. Conlon
Drew Gagnon
Phil Evans
Jack Reinheimer
Luis Guillorme
Gavin Cecchini
The Free Agents
Jerry Blevins
Austin Jackson
AJ Ramos
Devin Mesoraco
Jose Reyes
Jose Lobaton
Special Case
David Wright
So let’s count up the sure things – 25. Then you have from the Hospital Ward five more –
Rivera, Cespedes, Wahl, Hanhold and Lagares.
That’s 30. You must add in David
Wright in the scam the Mets are attempting to run on the insurance company – he
must occupy a roster spot until he is officially retired. That’s 31.
Now come the first tough decisions – the Bubble Boys. Frankly, I see them keeping all three
infielders – Reinheimer, Guillorme and Cecchini. That’s 34.
Among the minor leaguers to protect, that’s a calculated
gamble about exposing them to the Rule V draft.
Sometimes you assume someone who hasn’t played above A+ such as Harol
Gonzalez could slip through because he’s not ready to make the jump all the way
to the majors. Kyle Regnault didn’t do
too well this past season in Las Vegas but he’s left handed and has a career
3.18 ERA. However, at 29 it’s unlikely
other clubs would sacrifice a 40-man roster spot on him. The low power/high average bat of Walter
Rasquin might pique someone’s interest but again he’s not ascended above A
ball. Although Adonis Uceta posted some
nice numbers in other years his most recent ones were not particularly good and
you can probably gamble he’d slide through.
Levi Michael was a nice pickup this year but going into his age 28
season he’s not likely to be a high priority to other teams.
Joshua Torres is someone I would definitely consider
protecting. He was pitching to a 1.19
ERA in AA before hitting the Las Vegas wall.
At age 24 he’s still young enough to be desirable. The hard throwing Matt Blackham slid through
last year but he ascended as high as AA and may not make it through Rule V this
time. David Roseboom is a lefty who
until a foot injury and Las Vegas impacted his game, posted some very
impressive numbers (including 2.72 this past season in AA).
So if you add these three minor leaguers you’re up to 37
spots. That’s leaving room for 3
additions via free agency, Rule V selection or multiple player for fewer player
trades.
That means some familiar faces will be exposed, including
Paul Sewald, Tim Peterson and Phil Evans.
So how does that look as a start to the 40-man roster?
Nice, Reese.
ReplyDeleteI think Ali Sanchez is eligible for Rule 5...He had a good enough year that I would protect him, not Reinheimer. Catchers are harder to come by.
I would also struggle with Evans vs. Guillorme, leaning towards Evans.
I for one don't know baseball-wide if there are better unprotected Rule 5 guys we could grab, a factor to consider.
My thinking on Evans is he's been outrighted before and no one showed interest. Guillorme is healthy and hit around. 300
ReplyDeleteReese, Patrick Mazeika MUST be protected. An offensive catcher in AAA won’t make it out of the first pick. I’ve written this too many times to count, but he worked on his defense all year and his offense suffered, but they left him alone in August and he had an OPS close to 1.000. He can still hit, but threw out 33% of his base runners!
ReplyDeleteReese -
ReplyDeleteYou have this process pretty much figured out. I no longer do.
I also don't remember what players are eligible or not.
All I care about are the players I deem as either 'red' or 'blue' prospects. If they need to be protected they should be.
They should be:
AAA: Flexen (already on), Alonso, Guillorme (already on) J Torres, Roseboom
AA: Dunn, Kilome (already on), Zanghi, Mazieka, Gimenez, Toffy
Is Mazeika now Rule 5? If so, yes, I would protect him. Bad year, strong last month.
ReplyDeleteNice summary, Reese.
ReplyDeleteJosh Tores is someone I'd like to keep, but is a MiL FA and so (I think) not a Rule 5 issue. (other MiL FA's I want to be part of the Filler Force are Bryce Brentz & Levi Michael need not take a 40-man slot...yet)
I don't see Blackham on any eligibility list...idk.
Mazeika, Regnault & Cory Taylor are IMO the most precious Rule 5 eligible not currently on the 40.
I found Blackham on a list called "Non First Time Eligible" meaning he's already been exposed to Rule V when he was at the lower levels in the minors. This time he's closer to the majors and might get taken.
ReplyDeleteI see Torres on a first time eligible for Rule V.
ReplyDeleteReese-
you're correct about Backham
missed him on the list at:
http://tpgmets.blogspot.com/p/rule-5.html
but
Ttorres is on the MiL FA list (ame site)
torres os on the
Chris does a great job on his site to keep us up to date on this stuff. I've tried a number of times to recruit him here, but he loves remaining a free agent.
ReplyDeleteAs for his list, I want protected:
AAA - none
AA - Mazeika, Roseboom
A+ - none
A - none
Low-A - Medina
K-Port - none
GCL - none
Left one out I don't want to lose -
ReplyDeleteA - Rasquin
A ball, high AVG, no power. I think you can gamble he's not ready to spend the entire year on a ML roster.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Mejia?
ReplyDeleteReese
ReplyDeleteI understand what you are saying.
Chuck
ReplyDeleteGood question
I have no idea on how the rule works for a player that is banned for... LIFE
Brain fart -- forgot about Mejia. He's a must-add.
ReplyDeleteMR. MEJIA - COMEBACK PITCHER OF 2019 AWARD WINNER?
ReplyDeleteIf you need spots, why not leave Bruce, Swarzak, Vargas, and Frazier off? Wouldn’t losing those contracts and freeing up the money be addition by subtraction? Are we allowed to do that?
ReplyDeleteWhy do you include David? I expect a deal with the insurance company to be worked out, but if not he'll be on the 60-day DL forever. He's off it right now, but surely back on by OD.
ReplyDeleteAs for Mejia, who knows his status? Can he remain our property but be outrighted to Syracuse until he earns a promotion?
In any case, with with 2 months to go before the Winter meetings, I expect some MnL trades to be made.Someone on the 40 for someone in the lower minors who won't need to be protected.
Given what Zamora has shown, we have less need for someone like Regnault,for example. And, as Reese pointed out, some team needing a LHRP may want him.
But it's still too early to decide. All in all, I agree with Reese on his list. Pp
What is the current status/situation on Gavin C? Is he working out in LA with his brother? Is he watching tape on Clayton Kershaw? Is he a special assistant to Terry Collins? I haven't heard Jack Reinheimmer from this guy. What's the dealy-O on one of our up and coming 1st round draft picks. This would make for a great interview/article/filler for an aspiring or been there-done that blogger!😀
ReplyDeleteEnquiring Minds want to know.😀
@Bill Metsiac -- until they work out a deal with the insurance company he must be on the 40-man roster. Theoretically they could outright him to the minors to free up a spot but that doesn't close the loop on compensation, but it would definitely open up the roster spot. The PR flack for doing that would be unfathomable.
ReplyDeleteKevin -
ReplyDeleteAccording to MiLB.com, the Mets activated him at the end of last season and assigned him to Queens.
I'll try and look into this.
Mack, I do know that Cecchini was activated with about 6 games to go in St Lucie, only to play one game followed by 5 rain outs. Bad luck.
ReplyDeleteAs for Mejia -- if he hadn't been banned, he'd be going into his last year of arbitration. Remember, the team offered him arbitration last year, probably to keep him from losing him in case he was reinstated. And when it was announced the ban was lifted, the NY Times said he'd be eligible for spring training with the Mets. So it seems likely he's still under team control.
ReplyDeleteHe might not have any options left, though, so he'd have to be put on the 25 man roster. I would think that some other team would snatch him up if he becomes available.