Reese Kaplan -- Yes, Virginia, We DO Have the Money

Recently Mike Freire and Mack got into a debate about the necessity for the Mets to be aggressive in the off-season to build upon the core that emerged during this past wasted season (which followed another wasted season).  Whine all you want about injuries, but the Dodgers lost players to the DL 38 times to our 28 yet the last time I looked they were playing in the NL championship to get into the World Series.  It’s about what you do when you face adversity that is the difference.  They had lost Cory Seager all year and Justin Turner much of the year.  They went out and got Manny Machado.  The Mets went out and got Austin Jackson.  One of these things is not like the other. 

It occurred to me that if you analyzed the 2017/2018 off-season spending you would find that indeed the Mets had the resources to ink a Manny Machado or a Bryce Harper had they been smart instead of searching for bargains in the “irregulars” section of the store.  Let’s take a look.  I warn you, it’s pretty ugly.

Jason Vargas was signed to effectively a 2-year deal worth $16 million.  Technically it’s two with an option for a third or a $2 million buyout, but it meant the first year of his deal cost the club just $6 million.  For that he delivered -0.3 WAR.

Jay Bruce was in another first-year discount type of deal.  There are no options in play here, but the total magnitude is $39 million.  The first year cost was $11 million.  He delivered -0.4 WAR.

Anthony Swarzak similarly took a year one discount on his two-year deal.  He was paid $5.5 million for 2018 and will earn $8.5 million in 2019.  He delivered -0.4 WAR.

Jose Reyes was brought back for another year after his hot finish to a disastrous 2017 season.  At a cost of $2 million for a single year it didn’t necessarily look awful on paper.  It did look awful on the field as evidenced by the -1.0 WAR he provided.

Jerry Blevins was a net positive in the WAR column after a dreadful start to 2018.  He finished strongly and his one-year deal of $7 million dollars was worth 0.1 WAR.  However, if one WAR is worth $7.5 million or so, then maybe it was not such a good deal after all.

Exercising the option on Asdrubal Cabrera was a hotly debated topic during the past off-season but he delivered.  Midway through the year, of course, he was dealt to the Phillies and finished this $8.25 million contract by providing 0.7 WAR for the season.

The one true positive of the whole bunch was Todd Frazier.  In between stints on the DL he was able to give the Mets 1.4 WAR on an investment of $8 million in 2018 and $9 million to follow this coming year. 

In total the Mets’ off-season spending spree totaled $47.5 million for 2017 and provided a net gain of 0.6 WAR. 

Bryce Harper had, by his lofty standards, a sub-par year for the Nationals.  He was only worth 1.3 WAR.  He’s provided as much as 10.0 in a single season and averages about 3.8 WAR per season for his career. 

Manny Machado delivered to the Orioles and Dodgers combined 5.7 WAR.  He has averaged about 4.9 WAR per season over the course of his career.

So if you look at the $30 million per season one of these guys would cost and weigh it against the $47.5 million actually spent, the Mets can’t help but look less than shrewd.  Even if you filled out the remainder of the roster with warm bodies earning minimum wage who provided 0.0 WAR, those other 6 players would cost $3.6 million in aggregate.  Add that to the $30 million for the one superstar and you’d still be way ahead of the game.

However, to be fair, neither Machado nor Harper were available on the open market last season.  You couldn’t have obtained them even if you had the foresight and resources to do so. 

Do you want to know who WAS available and who were touted as good gets for the Mets?  Centerfielder Lorenzo Cain was available to the highest bidder (who turned out to be the NL champion-bound Milwaukee Brewers).  He provided 6.9 WAR for $14 million in his first year of a five-year $80 million contract.  J.D. Martinez was pricy at $23.5 million but provided the AL-champion contending Boston Red Sox with 6.4 WAR.  Mike Moustakas signed for $3 million less than Todd Frazier and he gave the Royals 2.5 WAR. 

Now I’m not raising these depressing points to ruin your day, but simply to point out that a smarter GM might be able to convince ownership that shopping in the bargain bin is not always the best course of action and that you can actually save money if you choose more judiciously.