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11/20/18

Mack… Position By Position Analysis: SP



Good morning.

We continue with a projection for the 2019 rotations in the pipeline.

One thing first.

A lot of pitchers threw starting games in the Mets minors last year. Especially Las Vegas. I will target here on who I feel will be the top five starters at each level.

So, let’s start…

          AAA – Syracuse

                   Justin Dunn       (23-yrs.old) –

                             AA:             15-G, 15-ST,          4.22/1.36
                             A+:              9-G, 9-ST,             2.36/1.27        
     
                   Drew Gagnon       (28-yrs old) –

                             AA:             1-G, 1-ST                 0.00/0.50
                            AAA:           27-G, 27-ST             4.57/1.23
                            MLB:            5-G, 1-ST                5.25/1.67

                   Chris Flexen          (24-yrs. old)-

                             MLB:           4-G, 1-ST,              12.79/3.16
                             AAA:           18-G, 17-ST,           4.40/1.52

                   Mickey Jannis       (30/yrs old) -

                             AAA:           2-ST                      14.63/2.63
                             AA:             23-ST                       3.60/1.36

                   TBD

                  
          AA – Binghamton

                   David Peterson     (23/yrs. old) –

                             A                 9-starts                 1.82/0.96
                             A+               13-starts               4.33/1.35

                   Michael Gibbons   (25/yrs. old) –

                             A+               17-starts               3.51/1.32
                             AA              2-starts                 0.00/1.44

                   Harol Gonzalez     (23/yrs, old) –

                             A+               12-starts               2.82/1.10
                             AA -             9-starts                 7.79/1.85
                             AAA -           1-start                  3.00/1.00

                   Nabil Crismatt       (23/yrs. old) –

                             AA -             18-starts               3.59/1.25
                             AAA -             9-starts               8.84/2.07

                   Gabriel Llanes       (22/yrs. old) –

                             A+               22-starts               4.27/1.48
                  
          A+ - St. Lucie

                   Anthony Kay          (23/yrs. old) –

                             A                 13 starts               4.54/1.37
                             A+               10 starts               3.88/1.46

                   Thomas Szapucki  (22/yrs. old) -

                             2018 -         On disabled list (TJS)

                   Jordan Humpreys  (22/yrs. old) -

                             2018 -         On disabled list (TJS)

                   Tony Dibrelli          (22/yrs. old) –

                             A                 23 starts               3.50/1.27

                   Joe Cavillaro          (23/yrs. old) –

                             A                 12 starts               2.09/1.03
                             A+               8 starts                 4.84/1.48
                             AA              1 start                  9.00/2.00 
            
A – Columbia

          Christian James     (20/yrs. old) –

                    Low-A          13 starts               2.01/1.13
                   A+               1 start                  0.00/0.20   
                   AA              1 start                  2.25/1.00

          Jaison Viera          (21/yrs. old) –

                   Low-A          13 starts               1.83/0.98

          Marcel Renteria    (24/yrs. old) –

                   A                 15 starts               4.23/1.30

          Kyle Wilson           (22/yrs. old) –

                   Low-A          11 starts               3.86/1.17

          Chris Viall             (23/yrs. old) -

                             A                 15 starts               4.75/1.54

Low-A – Brooklyn

                   Willy Tavares        (20/yrs. old) –

                             GCL             4 starts                1.23/1.05
                             K-Port          7 starts                2.93/1.00

                   Dedniel Nunez      (22/yrs old) –

                             K-Port          7 starts                3.79/1.34

                   Jose Butto            (20/yrs. old) –

                             K-Port          6 starts                 1.93/1.16
                             Low-A          5 starts                 6.11/1.50

                   TBD                      -

                   TBD                      -
                  
Rookie – K-Port

                   Simeon Woods-Richardson       (18/yrs. old)-

                                  GCL         2 starts                 0.00/1.15
                                  K-Port      2 starts                 4.50/1.00

                   Oscar Rojas           (19/yrs. old) –

                             GCL             7 starts                 3.83/1.09
                             K-Port          2 starts                 6.75/1.75

                   TBD                      -

                   TBD                      -

                   TBD                      -
                  
Rookie – GCL

                   Christofer Dominguez     (18/yrs. old) –

                             DSL             9 starts                 1.50/0.98
                             DSL-1          1 start                  0.00/0.80

                    Bryce Montes de Oca      -
                             Did not pitch in 2018

                   Andres German              (21/yrs. old) –

                             DSL             12 starts               1.97/0.99  
 
                   TBD                      -

                   TBD                      -
                  
Summary –

1.    Two top potential back end starters, Dunn and Peterson, will be graduated over the next two seasons.

2.    The grading of the Mets pipeline starters is dependent on how Szapucki and Humphreys heal and produce. If they do well, the team is deep in potential future starters. If not, others like Kay will have to step up.

3.    I love Tavares and Woods-Richardson, but both are far away from Queens.

4.    Kilome could be a pleasant surprise in 2020 if he heals correctly from TJS and we need to keep an eye on the kiddies, James, Viera, Dominguez, and German.

Comclusion:

Some may not agree with me, but I love the current depth of starters in the Mets pipeline. Yes, they have proved nothing so are, and most of them have to work hard at getting their pitches past the opponent’s batters. Our ERA’s are simply too high.

That being said, I give this position a high rate. Not the highest, but high.

Rating:       A

Helium Alert – Both Harol Gonzalez and Nabil Crismatt were on their way to Queens last year after posting great numbers in the lower levels. They then ran into brick walls in Binghamton (Gonzalez) and Las Vegas (Crismatt). Both are working hard in the off season to get their game back on line and they could easily return to being the blue prospect they were for most of last season.



on

11 comments:

  1. Tom BrennanNovember 20, 2018 at 8:22 AM

    Some of my own thoughts on those guys:

    Harol Gonzalez pitched in bad luck with little offensive support in 2017 but was still 1-16. It will be a tall order to right his ship,I wish him the best. Joe Cavallaro was better than Harol last year, so he might leapfrog Mr. Gonzalez.

    Drew Gagnon went 2-1 with the Mets - maybe he has the luck of the Irish, even though Gagnon is a French name.

    Flexen is at a crossroads - can he figure out how to become at least a marginally decent major leaguer? 2019 may be his last chance to prove he can be good enough, and durable enough.

    Jannis gets to avoid Vegas? He has to be thrilled. I love knuckleballer underdogs. Maybe not in Citifield, but I wish him well.

    Crismatt was very disappointing in 2017. Can he throw hard enough to get better batters out?

    Llanes seems like a poor man's Gabe Ynoa, so it will be interesting to see if he can handle AA.

    I disagree on Anthony Kay in A+ - I gotta get him up to AA to start the season. First rounders deserve faster tracks. Only way I start him in A+ is to keep him away from April northeast cold weather.

    Looking forward to Tony Dibs in 2019 - I think we see some real cool stuff from him.

    Chris Viall - a guy who fans 94 in 66 innings in Columbia could rocket up if he gets his act together, which sometimes takes time for 6'9" hard throwers. He could rocket up, and I would hope he is ready for A+, not a repeat of A ball.

    Simeon Woods Richardson will be 18 all of next year, but the 2nd rounder seems to have the real goods, so I am hoping somehow his great repertoire lets him pitch in full season A ball - if not, I get him up to Brooklyn, a pitcher's park. I do not think he'd be at all over his head there.

    There were a couple of other really, really young, talented guys who debuted in 2018 and whose names I can't recall right off the top of my head who may pop up on the starter radar screen in 2019.

    Willy Taveras - let's see if he can at least be the next Rafael Montero. Hopefully better.

    ReplyDelete
  2. bill metsiacNovember 20, 2018 at 8:32 AM

    Do we still have Crismatt? I thought I read that he became a FA last month

    ReplyDelete
  3. Reese KaplanNovember 20, 2018 at 9:48 AM

    I saw Crismat pitch in El Paso against the Chihuahuas. Slow, slower and slowest...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mack AdeNovember 20, 2018 at 9:52 AM

    Bill -

    still with us

    ReplyDelete
  5. Tom BrennanNovember 20, 2018 at 10:58 AM

    Reese, I wonder if Crismatt is always slow, slower, slowest, or if he had a sore arm. If not, he reminds me of soft-tossing lefty Mark Cohoon, who did great in the lower minors and caught his comeuppance in the upper minors.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Mike FreireNovember 20, 2018 at 11:06 AM

    I agree Mack.....not necessarily the deepest pool of prospects, but there are a few names in there that will be counted on in 2020 and beyond (as replacements for Vargas and possibly Wheeler).

    I really like what Woods-Richardson (awkward to type) has delivered so far........fingers crossed! He could be a young Dwight Gooden (minus the party life style, hopefully).

    ReplyDelete
  7. Tom BrennanNovember 20, 2018 at 11:27 AM

    I decided to look at the 2012 Binghamton stats for a minute - team had McHugh, Wheeler, Mejia, and Edgin - and a lot of no-name hopefuls that went nowhere.

    Sadly, most of the guys just don't have what it takes to become successful major leaguers.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Mack AdeNovember 20, 2018 at 2:17 PM

    Mike -

    I'm telling you...

    The key to future rotation dominance could fall on the healed arm/shoulder of Szapucki.

    Many have him higher rated than Peterson in our system.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousNovember 24, 2018 at 12:21 PM

    Read elsewhere online...

    That the Mets are sniffing Padres catcher Austin Hedges. Here's my take.

    I think that Hedges is quite solid defensively, has all the right attributes and skills for that. However, his overall lack of batting average capability does concern me.

    Of all the catchers Sand Diego has available, I really like 24 year old catcher Austin Allen a lot. He has had two back to back impressive seasons down in the minors (2017-'18) with 22 homeruns each and a combined .286 BA. He's big and he plays a very sound defense behind the plate.

    Questions remains regarding will he be ready to start coming out of Spring Training 2019? I am not 100% certain to this, but if the Mets are seriously going after Hedges then why not throw into this deal Austin Allen too.

    My hunch is that by no later than the All Star break, Austin Allen could be ready for MLB, a finished product. The Padres need quality and tested starting pitching. Their starters from 2018 were at best so-so. They do have some really promising prospects close, but if the Mets were to dangle guys like Seth Lugo or maybe too Robert Gsellman it could conceivably sew up the NY Mets catching spot for years to come.

    Definitely worth consideration by the Mets.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousNovember 24, 2018 at 12:38 PM

    Daniel Zamora

    Young and with a truly dynamic slider that can easily strikeout the best veteran batters, as we have seen.

    I sometimes wonder if Daniel were made a starter would he be just as effective as he is relieving? Might need one more pitch added in. But man, that slider...Holy Cow already!

    ReplyDelete