Reese Kaplan -- Power Vs. Speed

One of the things I found most frustrating about the Sandy Alderson regime was the pigheadedness with which he sought to build a roster.  Every year he would seek out all-or-nothing hitters who would generate a lot of power while simultaneously racking up prodigious strikeout totals.  OBP was perceived to be a good thing even if making contact was rendered irrelevant.  Think Curtis Granderson, Todd Frazier and players of that ilk who struggle to stay respectably over the Mendoza line. 

Fast forward to the post-Sandy Alderson era towards the end of 2018 when instead the Mets brought up a contact hitter you might have heard of named Jeff McNeil.  He took quality ABs, made hard contact successfully, and pretty soon had people saying, “Asdrubal who?” 

Similarly Brandon Nimmo went through a tale of two seasons in which he was very, very good and then there was a stretch during which he proved to be a strikeout machine.  However, the hope is that he can transform the good portion into sustainable success.  Again, in a tough situation you probably wanted him to be at the plate because everything was on the table – base hits, home runs, walks and HBP. 

Brodie Van Wagenen is saddled with many of the talent miscues promoted by Alderson and signed off by the Wilpons.  In addition to Frazier, there’s Jay Bruce and the currently injured duo of Yoenis Cespedes and Juan Lagares.  I’ll leave the latter two out of the equation for the moment but instead focus on Mssr. Frazier and Bruce.

In Todd Frazier the Mets have the classic Alderson hitter.  The last time Frazier had a respectable batting average was back in 2015.  You remember that year – despite Terry Collins the Mets made it to the World Series on the back of Yoenis Cespedes.  It seems like forever ago, no?  Anyway, that year he hit .255, but since then has offered up .225 in 2016, a combined .213 in 2017 and again .213 in 2018.  One year might be a fluke.  A three-year run of mediocrity is a trend.  Even more disturbing is you can’t justify the average with power as that’s been trending downward as well, from a high water mark of 40 HRs in 2016 to just 18 last season.  (For what it’s worth, the aforementioned Brandon Nimmo hit 17 in 39 fewer ABs without being considered a power hitter). 

Jay Bruce is a tale of three hitters.  The first one who arrived in the summer of 2016 to try to help the anemic offense at a cost of former prospect Dilson Herrera was flat-out awful.  He finally started putting it together in mid-September, but by then the season ran out on him.  He returned in 2017 and was more the type of player they thought he was when they acquired him.  He was, in fact, leading the league in RBIs at the time he was dispatched to Mickey Callaway’s Cleveland Indians for Ryder Ryan, a so-called relief prospect who, after a spectacular 2018 got his career ERA down to a pedestrian 3.71.  (Yeah, Sandy knew how to pick ‘em, alright!)  Then, when no one was appearing to show any interest in Bruce, the Mets bid against themselves and extended him the same AAV of $13 million not for one, not for two, but for three more years.  2018 was pretty much a lost cause due to issues with plantar fasciitis, and his year-end numbers were fugly as a result. 

There’s been a lot of whining about bringing in someone like Manny Machado to play SS or 3B, rendering Todd Frazier into pop off the bench.  While that would indeed transform the lineup into a powerful one, please remember it’s the Wilpons we’re talking about and long term, high ticket contracts are not their modus operandi. 

Similarly, there were others advocating a short-term deal for Josh Donaldson in a pillow contract to allow him to reestablish his value after a 2018 lost to injury.  That’s exactly what the Braves extended to him, though the $23 million price probably caught most everyone by surprise. 

PC - Ed Delany

If the team progresses as expected, there will be power aplenty from Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Peter Alonso and even Amed Rosario who may be trending towards the 20 HR mark this year if his development continues.  And let’s not count out Jeff McNeil who between AA/AAA/MLB launched 31 HRs.  So if you can reasonably expect to get about 125 HRs out of this quintet, maybe power hitters are not the way to go. 

Instead, one element greatly missing from the Mets attack over the past several years has been speed.  We saw some flashes of it from Rosario late in the year when not coincidentally they were playing their best prolonged stretch of ball.  Perhaps when looking to replace Frazier and/or Bruce they should be targeting base stealers instead of sluggers.

One name bandied about as being readily available on the trading block is Dee Gordon.  The Gold Glove winning infielder has twice had 200 hit seasons and stolen as many as 60 bases in a season.  Last year the Mariners played him in the OF until Robinson Cano’s PED hiatus forced him back to the infield.  He’s not cheap -- $13 million plus in 2019 and 2020, with a 2021 option of $14 million or a $1 million buyout.  In other words, he’s going to cost about $28 million at minimum.  Guess who also makes $28 million over the next two years – none other than Jay Bruce.

PC - Mack 

Another player rumored to be obtainable is the Cincinnati Reds’ Billy Hamilton.  The former SS turned centerfielder is pretty one dimensional, but what a dimension – speed personified.  Far be it from me to praise FINALLY former Met Jose Reyes, but remember how much fun it was to watch him get into pitchers’ heads once he got on base?  Hamilton is a singles hitter with a just a .245 lifetime average.  He’s surely not my first choice as he smacks of Eric Young, Jr.  Speed is great but you can’t steal first base. 

Others who have enviable stolen base totals are the Royals’ Whit Merrifield and the Orioles Jonathan Villar.  In these cases I would simply shift McNeil to 3B and open up 2B to one of the speed demons.  The Pirates’ Sterling Marte and the Mariners' Mallex Smith both play CF, a position of need given Juan Lagares’ inability to stay on the field and Jay Bruce’s inconsistency. 

Having guys who can not only get on base but disrupt the pitchers, making them focus less on getting out the subsequent hitters than on preventing the runners from advancing could have a major ripple effect on the thus far moribund offense. 

With the manner in which the Mets have struggled to hit ever since Sandy Alderson was steering the ship, I’d say it’s time to try a new course.