Tom Brennan - ABILITY AND DURABILITY

Tom Brennan - ABILITY AND DURABILITY

Two of the many factors that any GM, including our brand spanking new one, has to consider are players': 

Ability 

and 

Durability.

Mets fans know "lack of durability" all too well - e.g.:

David Wright: Ability HIGH, Durability NON-EXISTENT.  I hear he is healthy enough to sign his paychecks without stretching.

Yoenis Cespedes:  Ability HIGH, Durability POOR.  We thought we were signing Cespedes and got Achilles instead.

Anthony Swarzak: Ability MODERATE, Durability LARGELY MISSING.

And on and on.  

I'm not mentally durable enough to add any more examples.

So, let's move on to starters - our 5 starters finished the year as well as any starting rotation from early August onward.

Jake deGrom: Ability OFF THE CHARTS, Durability MOSTLY EXCELLENT SINCE HIS ROOKIE DEBUT.  As in 32 starts in 2018, most of the "out of this world" variety.

He had to get his ulnar nerve relocated in 2016, but it turned out to be mostly scary, but minor in impact.

Noah Syndergaard: Ability FREAKY, Durability NOT SO GOOD IN 2017 AND 2018.  The lat tear in 2017, other more minor maladies in 2018.  

Just 32 starts in 2 seasons. about 50%.   Will you get a full season, or 75% of one, in 2019 out of Thor?  I dunno, ask him.

Zach Wheeler: Ability SUDDENLY ELITE, Durability ABYSMAL PRIOR TO 2018 BUT QUITE GOOD IN 2018.  

Are his fragile days fully in his rear view mirror?  I dunno, I sure hope so, ask him.

Steve Matz:  Ability ABOVE AVERAGE, Durability VERY SUSPECT. Matz is the kind of player you always hope has seen his last injury, but somehow another one seems to show up.  

That explains just 71 starts in 3 1/2 seasons, or just 60% availability since his debut.  Injuries no more?  I dunno, ask him.

Jason Vargas: Ability AVERAGE AT BEST, Durability NORMALLY QUITE GOOD.  Jason, the clear # 5 out of these 5 Goodfellas, started 32 games in 2017, and just 20 in 2018 due to the freakish hamate injury.  

My guess is he does not throw hard enough to hurt himself in 2019.  He's still got one more hamate bone, though...uh oh!

Simply put, if we get 140 or more starts with this quintet, we'll have a heckuva season.  But that would exceed their historical production levels.  

140 strikes me as wishful thinking.  

Vegas might put their over/under at 130 starts.

But let's say: 32 deGrom, 30 Wheeler, 28 Thor, 26 Matz, 30 Vargas - that's 146!

We do have Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman at the ready to pick up slack - but given the 5 starters' historical lack of durability, those 2 bullpen arms may end up starting a bunch of games, so the Mets have to, have to, HAVE TO fix the bullpen in a big way.  (BTW, the # 47 means what with regard to these 2 capable guys?  

It is the sum of their late draft rounds - Lugo in round # 34 and Rob in round # 13 - the Mets sure struck gold with these two.)

If I were the GM (please sing heartily to the tune of IF I WERE A RICH MAN), I'd keep those 5 starters and hope mightily for their good health until Justin Dunn and David Peterson are ready.  I target Dunn at mid-season, and Peterson by September 2018, but both are pretty iffy as to whether they'll be ready by those target dates.

Since "I dunno", how would you, the real GM, approach this?