Tom Brennan - IT HAPPENS EVERY JUNE IN METSVILLE
Well, that title is not exactly precise.
Sometimes, in Metsville, it happens in April....or May.
But it happens almost every year.
First, though, comes the typical off season prologue.
The season ends and the Mets have won 70-79 games, having fallen out of the race by the All Star break, at which time contracts are dumped to save money and get some marginal players in return. They don't eat some contract to get real, promising talent.
By now, they've also drafted poorly by picking too many players with mundane skill levels, hoping irrationally that they will become the next Jose Altuve.
Then, after the season, we all start speculating about all the possible trades and free agent signings we could pursue.
Then, we hear that the Yankees will do whatever it takes to get marquee mega-talents to ensure that the playoffs are almost a given.
Meanwhile, we hear that the Mets' budget, set at about 2/3 of what the Yanks spend, is either flat or may go up slightly.
Mets fans begin to hear that locking up top-tier Mets players likely won't be happening, no doubt to not bust the next season's budget.
And we hear that we might trade top talent and we worry about Ryan-for-Fregosi might happen all over again.
The Mets then typically get aging, or healing and aging, players at mid-range contract levels. And keep their own aging players too long.
And they cling to the hope that guys who have under-performed in the past season will somehow out-perform in the next.
They also build in cheap, very marginal depth type players, hoping mightily that high injury rates will become low injury rates and thus their need for marginal player usage will be minimized.
So what happens? Things go wrong.
The thin ice in the pond gives way.
While a few of those acquired and retained older/marginal players do well, most of them do not.
Think aging Swarzak (hurt most of the year), aging Reyes (hits under .200), aging Todd Frazier (hits .213 for the second straight year), aging Gonzalez (meh offense), aging Bautista (another .200 hitter type), Paul Sewald (0-6 in one year, 0-4 in the next), and a myriad of batting practice pitchers in a season-long bull pen serenade.
We hear about the possible return of David Wright, while other teams focus on players who are able to actually play.
And we see them gamble on another player with injury warning signs pre-contract, who will now miss most of his multi-year contract (Cespedes), making insurers unhappy and certain to raise future insurance rates significantly.
And the team wins in the 70s again, because some (but not enough) guys inevitably over-perform to keep the Mets out of the 60 win level.
Season after season this happens - rinse and repeat - as the aggressive, smart, high-spending Yankees own the town almost every year.
The Mets count on several things to make the business model work...enough casual fans in a highly-populated area to build an attendance floor...enough businesses to buy tickets...enough rabid Mets-for-life fans to hang in there until it is time to meet their maker...enough locals who hate the Yanks and hence won't switch allegiances...and the fact that for Long Islanders, it is too brutal to commute to the mid-Bronx.
And so...rinse and repeat.
Will this off season and next season be different?
It could be. How?
Set the budget close to $200 million and relentlessly, unabashedly compete.
Or...rinse and repeat.
And realistic fans will again get ready for the next June plunge.
My only hope is the so-called honeymoon period during which you would expect the normally penurious Wilpons to green light some extra spending to help justify the "wisdom" of their unconventional choice for the front office.
ReplyDeleteI would hope the team would realize it has elite starter talent and SPEND to get it up to "play off probable" quality.
ReplyDeleteI'm very tired of this team's foolishness in shying away from trying to build a winner out of fear of blowing it while trying. I want a World Series win.
Mr. Brennan
ReplyDeleteHas presented the key phrase
"Playoff probable"
I would like to add, that it needs to be based on a core that will be around for 3-5 years.
Waiting until our current minor league system is committing to wasting all of the current starters prime years.
And, might I add the building by the draft has rarely, if ever built a "playoff probable" team.
Sustainable winning Teams were built by establishing a core in their mid 20's with the help of free agents and prospects acquired through trade.
Bob, that is right. We can't wait, our starting pitchers will never be at a greater peak than in 2019.
ReplyDeleteBuild a sustainable winner (a playoff probable team for the next 3-5 seasons, at least) thru spending.
Boston and the Bronx fellas most seasons are playoff probable - that should be this team's goal. Instead, it is playoffs if we're lucky
I'm going to beat the dead horse here again.
ReplyDeleteMachado should be priority #1.
Only he and Harper are mid 20 year old, middle of the order, good defensive players that can be attained. Only money would be necessary and none of the top prospects that the team needs to rely on to help fill holes over the next 3 years would be affected.
Machado over Harper because of Machado's better health history.
Bob, we can afford Machado.
ReplyDeleteGet him, a better catcher, 2-3 REAL BP arms - we would be good to go.
That's it in a nutshell. (Both the piece and your last comment).
ReplyDeleteDave, it does seem true...and sad.
ReplyDeleteThe small market spending would at least be a little easier to take if the talent evaluation wasn’t also bottom of the league.
ReplyDeleteHere we are, a month or so into the new FO regime, weeks before the Winter meetings, and already the gloom/doom crew is out in force?
ReplyDeleteCan we at least have some balance with optimism? We have arguably the best rotation in baseball; some very promising young talent in Nimmo, 4to, Rosario, McNeil and Alonso; the expected mid-season return of our best hitter; and a GM who has promised to aggressively improve the roster.
Even if you shop for a mutual fund that has done well, there's a caveat that "past performance is not an indication of the future".
If we can't have hope for the future in November, why be fans at all?
I remember similar calls for optimism before each if the last 2 seasons and more similar calls for many of the poor years the Mets have experienced lately.
Delete