Tom Brennan - THE SIGNIFICANCE OF 6 OUT OF 28
As GM Brodie VW strategizes for 2019, one vitally important rule (ignored for years by the Mets) applies:
Wishful thinking is NOT a strategy.
Jake deGrom won both his first 2 starts and his last 2 starts.
But in between?
THE BEST DARNED PITCHER ON EARTH IN 2018 WON JUST 6 OF 28 STARTS.
THE BEST DARNED PITCHER ON EARTH IN 2018 WON JUST 6 OF 28 STARTS.
Incomprehensible - but it happened.
How did the incomprehensible happen?
Because the Mets love to engage in wishful thinking - thinking that every aging veteran signed will perform like Bartolo Colon, and thinking that if the team has enough bullpen hopefuls, enough of them will step up to give the team a competitive pen.
Instead, the stark and painful reality is that aging veterans and marginal call-ups most times will collectively SUCK, to use the most appropriate term I can think of.
Vets?
While other teams get real hitters, we got our usual cadre of vets like Messrs. Frazier, Bautista, Gonzalez and Reyes, who combined to hit .209 in 1,050 at bats - and 1,050 at bats constituted 19.2% of the team's total at bats. And more than 20% of the non-pitcher ABs. Too many at bats.
Vets-wise, truly a formula for FAILURE.
Marginal dudes?
We can wish that all our bullpen arms mature and this year's version will be far better than last year's 5.00 ERA stinker - but that is fool's gold. On a team that used a ghastly 30 pitchers last year, the bottom 10 + guys in the pen last year with ERAs over 5.00 were barely qualified to pitch for the 1962 Mets team that went 40-120 - and that might be a generous characterization.
In fact, Mets pen pitchers with bullpen ERAs over 5.00 totaled 228 innings (1 out of every 6 of all Mets innings) and allowed 184 runs (7.26 runs per 9 innings).
In fact, Mets pen pitchers with bullpen ERAs over 5.00 totaled 228 innings (1 out of every 6 of all Mets innings) and allowed 184 runs (7.26 runs per 9 innings).
Pen-wise, truly a formula for FAILURE.
So Brody VW, please avoid the mistakes of Christmases Past.
Don't engage in wishful thinking.
Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Houston sure don't.
And the result is, THEY WIN.
They build great talent - and build in a margin for error.
SO:
AGGRESSIVE, REALISTIC THINKING IS SORELY NEEDED.
THAT IS MY WISHFUL THINKING FOR THIS TEAM.
AGGRESSIVE, REALISTIC THINKING IS SORELY NEEDED.
THAT IS MY WISHFUL THINKING FOR THIS TEAM.
Agreed, Tom............I almost passed out yesterday when I saw an article that QUOTED Jeff Wilpon as
ReplyDeletesaying we needed to get AGGRESSIVE this off season! What the hell is going on, right?
Still, words are nice but ACTION is where it's at.
Show us, Jeff!
Give BVW the green light and I will start to believe that this is a new era.
Aggressive thinking....
ReplyDeletePadres are reportedly very interested in Syndergaard.
Their top prospects include Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS) and Francisco Mejia. (C/OF).
This type of move would necessitate moving deGrom and Wheeler for young players as well.
Imagine the abundance of talent that would all be in the same age range to form the Mets major league team for years to come.
Okay
ReplyDeleteOpen Thread
Would you sell Thor for Tatis, Mejia, and an SP chip?
If the Mets decided to go all in and move deGrom and Wheeler for top prospects, Absolutely.
DeleteThe real question is "what would it take to make this a world series worthy team". Answer is money.
ReplyDeleteYou trade Syndergaard without extending Wheeler and the strength of the Mets vanishes if they lose Wheeler as well.
So it comes down to two choices.
Do the Mets want to win or at least have a winning team next year.
Or do they want to trade elite pitching for prospects, wait for them to become elite, refuse to spend money again and repeat the process.
I for one, I am tired of waiting, tired of all the empty promises. I want action, purpose, direction, commitment.
Viper
DeleteI would agree, but creating the best team possible now would require acquiring Machado and Realmuto.
So many people keep insisting that is not going to happen.
It makes no sense to keep going for patchwork additions hoping for better outcomes.
If the organization chooses not to go for it now with the best available talent, the best choice is to go for it with the next wave of top talent.
If done well, there would not necessarily be a water year.
The top talents like Tatis Jr and Mejia could very well be just as competitive as the Mets would be by adding bargain free agents while developing into all-stars
In answer to Mack's question, I would indeed do that deal. You upgrade at catcher immediately, have Tatis this year (or next) and that opens up Gimenez and/or Rosario as trade chips. Lugo (or a FA signee) would slot into the rotation. A step down pitching-wise, but we need to SCORE RUNS.
ReplyDeleteGood discussion, gentlemen. I was tied up all day. What you guys were discussing is a real dilemma. Trade our elite arms, or keep them.
ReplyDeleteBut if they stand pat on their current starting pitchers, they NEED to not sign and play washed up gents again, and they NEED a drastic pen upgrade.
Bob, I would disagree.
ReplyDeleteSign, Josh Donalson, Familia, Miller, Ottavino.
That's only money.
Big gamble on Donaldson's age. If not this year then over the next 3. All while money is tied up with him.
DeleteFamilia, Miller, and Ottavinomwill help the bullpen, which needs help.
But the bug problem is the offensive core of the Mets.
I totally agree with Reese on this. Only other thing is I'd want the Padres to assume Bruce's contract, too (or failing that, Frazier's), if they want Thor that badly. Bruce is a square peg in a round hole with the Mets and they should be able to do better than Frazier. Also agree with Tom on the need to not sign and play washed up players. They could have brought McNeil up in May or June and DFA'd Reyes (which I hoped every day they would do). Would they have won the division? Probably not. Could they have won a few more games? You bet they could've. McNeil was red hot, Reyes was a dead fish at bat and in the field. It might not have been as huge an improvement as it turned out to be after July, but how much worse could it possibly have been? And by all means they should be all in on re-signing Familia, along with two other top-flight relievers, with Miller and Ottavino being probably as good as pair as we can hope for, but if not them, the best two of whatever's out there.
ReplyDeleteDave Schulps, great thoughts there. Jay Bruce could have a good year, but when the Mets already have the outfielders we do, Cespedes possibly back around the All Star break, and Alonso, Flores and Smith available to cover 1B, he is most likely excess where it is not needed.
ReplyDelete