Pages

12/1/18

Reese Kaplan -- Bryce Harper, Too? Ask Trader Bro



So with the proposed Mets/Mariners trade a fait accompli, it’s time to take a look at the prospective new roster (along with the non-tendering of Wilmer Flores) to see who is here, how much money is committed, and what’s left to spend to address other needs.

Let’s first look at the current starting pitching staff.  You have:

  • Jacob deGrom (estimated $12.9 million in arbitration)
  • Noah Syndergaard (estimated $5.9 million)
  • Zack Wheeler (estimated $5.3 million)
  • Steven Matz (estimated $3 million)
  • Jason Vargas (contract $8 million)


That’s a total of $35.1 million here.

Now let’s look at the current bullpen (subject to improvement, hopefully):

  • Edwin Diaz (estimated $1 million)
  • Seth Lugo ($600K)
  • Robert Gsellman ($600K)
  • Drew Smith ($600K)
  • Daniel Zamora ($600K)
  • Relief Pitcher
  • Relief Pitcher

The total for the incomplete bullpen is $3.4 million.

The infield right now would include:

  • Todd Frazier ($9 million)
  • Robinson Cano ($12 million)
  • Amed Rosario ($600)
  • Jeff McNeil ($600)
  • Travis d’Arnaud (estimated $3.9 million)


Total here would be $26.1 million.

The outfield would include:

  • Michael Conforto (estimated $4.4 million)
  • Juan Lagares ($9 million)
  • Brandon Nimmo ($600)

 This total would be $14 million.

The bench would include:

  • Kevin Plawecki (estimated $1.3 million)
  • TJ Rivera or Dilson Herrera ($600K)
  • Dom Smith ($600K)
  • Outfielder
  • Outfielder


The incomplete bench would cost $2.5 million.

Then there is the dead money on the DL:

  • Yoenis Cespedes ($29.5)
  • David Wright ($15)

So, without making any other moves, the Mets are committed to $125.6 million.  They still need to add two relievers and two outfielders at minimum to get to the 25 man total.  Most would advocate needing at least one more solid setup arm to pair with Diaz, an upgrade at catcher and an upgrade/platoon partner in CF.   I'm assuming no reinvestment of the insurance money expected for Wright and Cespedes.

So far Trader Bro’s actions have freed up about $30 million to spend on these deals, but it’s time to see what happens when the next shoe drops.  Methinks if they are serious about shopping Thor then they will attach either Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas or Juan Lagares to the deal to free up about another $14 million to spend.  If the rumored “major league ready prospects” requirement for Thor’s services holds true, then you’re looking at minimum wage assets.  That would seem to make the $44 million available to address needs like David Robertson or Andrew Miller, and maybe even a run at Bryce Harper.

Crazy? 

Well, assuming Miller or Robertson would be somewhere in the $10 million range AAV.  Harper is probably going to command $30 million AAV.  That’s only $40 million.  Remember, too, that Yoenis Cespedes comes off the books after next year and you have expiring contracts on the triumvirate suggested to leave in the Thor deal.  That still leaves $4 million to pick up a couple of $2 million experienced assets for the bullpen or outfield.  (Of course, I’m assuming a catcher is coming over in the Thor deal). 

If done this way, the payroll would actually be the exact same as it was to start 2018, but could look like this:

1B Peter Alonso
2B Robinson Cano
SS Amed Rosario
3B Jeff McNeil
C  TBD
LF  Brandon Nimmo
CF  Bryce Harper
RF  Michael Conforto

This lineup would potentially be vulnerable to high quality southpaws with 5 of the regulars batting from the left side of the plate.   Furthermore, you would have a dropoff in pitching quality if, for example, Seth Lugo replaced Thor in the rotation.  However, that lineup would sure be set up to score a lot of runs.

What do you think?

25 comments:

  1. New Brodie times, so let's instead assume the insurance $$ IS in fact factored in - that should get that already committed # down to $100 million. Now, spike the budget up from $150 million to around $175 - $185 million, and go get Harper, Miller, Robinson, Grandal or Ramos, and a solid starter (if Thor is traded - I would keep him). And win a World Series.

    ReplyDelete
  2. When the team is this close and the elder Wilpon is the age he is, it should make sense for the organization to "go for it" and reinvedt the insurance money into the team.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anybody notice there are a lot of very good bullpen arms that were nontendered?

    ReplyDelete
  4. They are never signing Harper.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Just an observation, doesn't Harper have a negative rating playing RF and he is going to play CF?

    Not that the Mets would spend the money on him anyway which would be extremely foolish.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Reese -

    Morning

    Your template is spot on.

    I am sure that our GM will continue to attempt to clear all the bad money he inherited. David Wright might be the exception.

    I do not know sports is so obsessed with not just paying off contracts and showing players the door. Big business does it every day.

    I do share with the skeptics out there that the last three years of Cano's contract could come back and bite us, but the sting would hurt less if we had a divisional trophy in the trophy case at Citi.

    ReplyDelete
  7. The problem that I have with this is that the Mets need a RIGHT HANDED power hitting 3B. Cano is yet another LH hitter and a 2B which we have plenty of.

    Even with Cano and Diaz, you still need more BP help. If Frazier turns another year like he did in 2018, the Mets would have gained nothing.

    If Diaz was the one player they wanted, why not just trade for him?

    Now they want to trade Syndergaard?

    This may be the year this organization turns me over to the dark side in the Bronx.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Right handed middle of the order 3rd baseman you say???

      Hmmmm.... who fits that description and is available without costing more prospects?

      Machado!!

      Maybe McNeil can play corner outfield?

      Delete
  8. You need to factor in a DeGrom extension too. I think the Díaz for Kelenic trade was a move to get a closer, free up roster spots and not add payroll. That gives him flexibility to extend DeGrom sign a reliever or two and hopefully a catcher. Honestly with a Grandal and a Miller and no other changes I think they look pretty good. Although the above line up with Grandal and Harper would be murders row, we would score so many runs. If Rosario improves at all we have no easy outs. Probably a pipe dream however.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Viper -

    1. The world is not built in a day.

    2. You just can not trade 'only for Diaz' if Seattle will not do this.

    3. No one has said, other than writers and bloggers, that the Mets want to trade Syndergaard.

    4. He's freeing up all this money, like Flores, to have the funds needed to do more.

    This will be a move in the right direction. It is a hell of a lot more than we had this time last week.

    Give the man the off season to build the 25 and then we will take a look at it.

    ReplyDelete
  10. One more thing...

    New managers want to 'clear the books' of old players created by old managers. I did it as a manager. So did all the other ones in all the business world.

    Our new GM wants to put the Mets past behind him and rid the commitments of the past.

    ReplyDelete
  11. How athletic is McNeil?
    Is he able to play a good corner outfield?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well then, sign Machado (better health history than Harper) and have McNeil go to the outfield if needed.

      Delete
  12. Mack,

    I understand it cannot be build in a day. Buy you can't say you are building a winning team at the same time you're trying to trade Syndergaard, you just can't.

    Also, is not like there aren't elite closers available in the free agent market.

    TJ Rivera at 3B didn't go that well if I remember correctly. Maybe McNeil will do better.

    I can see you trading your best prospects if you're getting a final piece on your team to get it over the top. But if you trade Syndergaard, you negate that regardless of what's coming back.

    To do that at the time where Wheeler is not signed beyond 2019 is just plain crazy. You trade Syndergaard and lose Wheeler to free agency and you will have a rotation of deGrom, Matz, ???.

    The Mets lack of direction is just mind bending for me. Every time you think they are getting younger and faster, they trade for 36 year olds. Every time they build a strength like they have in pitching, they want to break it apart.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I don't know the insurance arrangement, but I think the 60-day "deductible" starts afyer OD. If so, Yo isn't fully covered until late May. And if he returns by late June/early July, that means only a month or so of his salary is covered.

    As for the "power-hitting RH-hitting 3Bman", despite the poor '18 we already have one for this season.

    And JMO, but the estimates for Gsellman, Lugo, and Nimmo seem kinda low. I expect them to get more.

    With our need to add more pen arms and at least one more OFer (Hamilton?), plus a Catcher (Ramos), there are a lot of $$$ to account for. A 10-year commitment to Harper, with his rep as a prima donna, doesn't work for me.

    ReplyDelete
  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hamilton?
    Frazier again?

    More sub .240 hitters??

    No Thanks!!

    You realize the team you propose can not go in to the season with many feeling they are a playoff team.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Tears In Heaven

    For Wilmer Alejandro Flores Garcia.

    That's his real name and it is back to Venezuela for him. Bad defense, can't run, no knees, and throws to wrong base. For the love of Jiminy Cricket, why did they even draft him?

    ReplyDelete
  17. At This Juncture

    You have to summarize what this team really needs more to compete for the Cup in 2019. Well, first of all, they need someone large body under the boards who can bang and rebound with Enis Kanter upfront. They have runts there already but it isn't working out so good. Oh crap, wait a minute, wrong sport. My bad. Sorry.

    The NY Mets need these additional ingredients currently missing...

    Starting with the pitching they need for certain a lefty starter who is good and consistent and not named Matz. Matz is to me, more of a figment of someone's imagination than a really good starter a team can count on start in and start out. He's like having "Larry and Larry" renovate your home. This is one of the recurring "Ground Hogs Day" bad mistakes the NY Mets seem to make every single season. He just seems to show up at the start of each season for some reason. I like Corbin or Happ both better, who wouldn't. So what do we do with Steven Matz? Package a deal to unload him maybe for a Dallas Cowboy Cheerleader? That's creative and outside the box, right?

    So how's the relief corp?

    Good question. No one really knows yet. I like Bashlor, Drew Smith, Lugo but not starting, Gsellman but not starting, the new guy Carmen Diaz to close, maybe Vargas as a lefty long reliever but not starting, Hanhold, and maybe take a look at Garcia and Roseboom as well. Don't kid yourself here though, the Mets need a lefty set-up really badly to balance this all out.

    1B It's all Peter Alonso. Forget Wilmer and Jay. Dom backs up an plays some left field and pinch hitter, if not traded.

    2B Cano. Unless he can play third base.

    SS Rosario. The guy was a rookie last year and did pretty well I thought. Cut the man a break will you already. He is still clay with greatness written all over him. Forget Gimenez for awhile. Andres isn't even formed clay yet. Needs more time to harvest.

    3B McNeil. This is where he begins his trek to All Star status. You will see.

    LF Stay tuned. Cespedes or someone new with also sincere homerun ability. We need a 30 homerun guy in left.

    CF Nimmo. Again, Brandon was a rookie too last year. Give him some time to fully grow out his MLB legs. He didn't even get a whole season in MLB in 2018. Juan backs him up, if not traded.

    RF Conforto. His 2018 second half was convincing.

    C God only knows here. Travis. But does he start?

    So to answer your question, the Mets need: 1. A new lefty starter. 2. A catcher with sincere homerun ability. 3. A lefty set-up man. 4. A homerun left fielder.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Something intangible concerns me with Bryce Harper. I keep asking myself this one question...Why are the Nationals giving up on him?

    ReplyDelete
  19. The Nats offered Harper $300 million. Is that giving up on him?

    ReplyDelete