Reese Kaplan -- If the Season Started Today, UGH!

In the most recent past the formula for projected success was a powerful starting rotation with an offensive attack just potent enough to score one more run than the opposition.  We all know that the best laid plans of mice and Mets fans oft go astray.  Injuries, poor performances and questionable leadership resulted in unintended failures.

To hear some tell it, the best approach is to address the anemic offense.  Towards that end the Mets got off to a good start, adding the bat of Robinson Cano but apparently at the expense of the bat of Jeff McNeil who, if you were not paying attention, set the minor league world on fire and followed it up with a 6-week trial at the .329 level.  Yes, there is always a Mike Vail possibility lurking behind that strong start, but with Todd Frazier having been in decline for a few years now, trotting him out there hoping that trend reverses seems a poorer bet.

Then there’s the question of first base.  That position became somewhat clearer when Jay Bruce was sent to the land of Starbucks and legal pot.  It opened up the logjam that threatened to keep slugger Peter Alonso in AAA for a full season.  Now it would appear he’s destined to stay there just long enough to manipulate his service time with the former first round pick Dom Smith likely getting the starting nod on opening day.  That should change a few weeks later, adding the right handed bat of Alonso to the still anemic lineup. 

Amed Rosario made great strides in the last part of the season, exhibiting both power and multi-hit capabilities to go along with his baserunning speed, but he’s not exactly making anyone think he will be the second coming of Francisco Lindor.  He is what is called a work in progress.

I think most folks would pencil in both left handed hitting outfielders into the more-or-less sure thing category with Michael Conforto finishing very strongly after recovering from his shoulder injury, and Brandon Nimmo exhibit heretofore unforeseen power while building on his strong on-base capabilities. 

However, any way you slice it, the offense looks pretty vulnerable with Juan Lagares slated to be the regular centerfielder on the days he can stay in the lineup and some combination of Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki behind the dish. 

What that means to me is you are looking at a lineup with only three hitters pretty much a lock to hit above .250 – Cano, Conforto and Nimmo.  Todd Frazier will be near the Mendoza line, no one knows what to expect from Rosario or Smith/Alonso.  The catchers and Lagares combine to be below that .250 mark for their careers.  What that tells me is that the lineup going into 2019 as it currently stands has the potential to be even worse than what we’ve seen in the recent past.

Assuming the starting rotation remains intact, then you have every reason to believe that a healthy four horseman of the apocalypse of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz have the potential to render opponent lineups impotent.  Hell, if they stayed healthy you could probably even withstand Jason Vargas in the final slot. 

The bullpen is still very much a work in progress with Edwin Diaz replacing last year’s Jeurys Familia to begin the season in the closer’s role.  That’s a notch above for sure, but nothing yet has been done to reinforce the remaining firestarters, er, firemen.  But wait, we added Mr. Familia back into the fold.  An expensive step to address a problem but not enough given the Jacob Rhames, Paul Sewalds and others of that ilk still very much in the conversations.  Consequently that potential to blow a lot of games is very much alive and well.

I went through this analysis to start a dialog about what should change to improve the club’s probability to, borrowing a painful phrase, play meaningful games in September.  What needs to be done to fortify the offense, preserve the starting rotation and bolster the bullpen?

Obviously most everyone here would be on board handing Jeff McNeil the starting assignment at 3B and let him prove whether or not 2018 was a fluke.  The potential for him to succeed certainly trumps the virtual certainty of Todd Frazier to deliver declining power and little else.   That change requires no additional investment, but an open mindedness that salary shouldn’t dictate playing time. 

Recently reports have surfaced that Gary Sanchez might be on the table as a trade possibility, but not at the price of Noah Syndergaard.  Given Sanchez’s injuries, passed ball problem and reputation for questionable attitude, he’s not worth a guy with a career ERA over 87 games under 3.00.  However, I might be tempted to build a deal around Matz or Wheeler.  After all, Mike Piazza didn’t get to the Hall of Fame for his glove nor his arm. 

I don’t think there’s any way you can go into 2019 with Juan Lagares as the designated centerfielder when he has a dubious offensive track record and an inability to stay on the field.  It disheartens me to have seen the Mets talking to this year’s declining players like Adam Jones to address the need.  That approach smacks of the 2^nd tier FA acquisitions of the past that helped get the team into this mess (like Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak).  As to who I would target to play CF, that’s a very good question.  Criticizing Lagare’s inability to stay healthy and then looking to someone like A.J. Pollock fortify the position is hypocritical. 

There are numerous bullpen pieces available on the FA market, but it was an amazing story to read the Mets were considering a deal to the Texas Rangers that would bring Jose LeClerc to the Mets for some minor league starting pitchers.  For those of you unfamiliar with LeClerc’s 2018 campaign, he appeared in 59 games with a 1.56 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 57 IP with a WHIP of an unbelievable 0.85.  Although he racked up 12 saves, think of him joining Familia and Diaz.  All of the sudden that porous pen is looking like it will be carrying fire extinguishers instead of kerosene. Compare that to one-year-wonder Adam Ottavino for probably $9 million or more per year?  If not that, how would you feel with guys like Tony Sipp or Oliver Perez inheriting Jerry Blevins' role?  What about Blevins himself?

Finally, the catcher position is another black hole and you have another DL quandary with Wilson Ramos on paper being a good fit given his bat but his durability combined with that of Travis d’Arnaud is like that whole Lagares/Pollock hypocrisy.  Some advocate going after a Francisco Cervelli who has one year at $11.5 million remaining on his deal or eating the future draft pick and ink a very expensive Yasmani Grandal for 3-5 years. 

Without a lot more action than we’ve seen, the current club is again relying on perfect health and lots of unproven people.  That’s not been a formula for success and is unlikely to be one in 2019.  BVW seemingly has many pots on the stove but nothing imminently close to helping the club advance in the standings.  Mack recently said that BVW has close to Sandy Alderson salary restrictions.  If so, then he's maybe got $20 million left to spend.  If you earmark it primarily towards a FA catcher, that's not too much left in the checkbook for anything else.  I think some additional trades that include both salary dumps and prospects will have to happen to get the quality needed within the bugetary constraints.